Changing index plays @ end of shoe to get 1 more hand?

[RS]

Say you're at the very end of a shoe and see there are very few cards before the cut car comes out, and you're in a situation like 99v7, TTv6, or TTv5, where you would split based on the high TC, but would otherwise stay. In this example, the TC index is met and you SHOULD split. However, if you split, there's a decent chance it'll be the last hand of the shoe. If you don't split, you still have a "proper" BS strategy hand and are still in the +EV for that hand...although you would gain more EV by splitting, but potentially less EV by splitting because you won't get that next hand at a juicy count?


On the other hand, what if you're in a similar situation (high count, very few cards left), but staying isn't the correct BS play, for example, 66 verse 2-6? At a monster count, if you split, there's a good chance you'll end up with two stiffs and will have to stay, and might lose out on that last hand of the shoe.



Just a thought I had and was wondering if anyone has ideas or opinions on this.

[justacaucasian]

it's all about EV gained from the decision. defensive or offensive doesn't matter since "a penny saved is a penny earned."

if you have CVdata check the EV generated from your split decision at that particular count. if it doesn't outweigh the EV gained by playing the next hand at that same count, then don't split. in general if your 1 or 2 TC higher than the split index, it'll be gaining about .01 to .02 EV, about the same as playing another hand at TC4 (using hi lo) in general, i'd say it's almost always best to not split and just play the next hand.

I was working on some theory similar to this where I wouldn't hit certain hard hands if they were close calls (like .001) under the assumption that heads up against the dealer, a hand is 2.71 cards for the player, 2.78 for the dealer = 5.49 cards per hand

and the hit I took generated .001 EV but cost me 1/5.49 hands at a good TC = ~ -.004 EV


haven't put any of this into practice, but just something to consider

[bigplayer]

You may find you're giving up far more on the current hand by trying to preserve cards than you gain. Unless you're right at the index I would just play the hand like you're supposed to unless you KNOW what the edges are.

[RS]

Interesting. Yeah, I figured that if I'm right at the index, like spot on, it's essentially a toss-up if I split the cards or not...in which case, I would stand. I didn't even think about the splits that gain more EV the further they exceed the TC (like TTv6 gain is much more than 99v7). Good to know.

I don't plan on memorizing a bunch of tables to know if splitting is a better choice in such a situation....as that is way too much info to memorize for a situation that happens quite rarely. Wasn't planning on using this type of play often, and chances are I won't ever use it, given the circumstance happens rarely. But then again, there are times when I see there are very few cards to be played before the cut card comes out (in pitch)...and was something of interest.

You are still not a favorite to win the next hand.

That isn't to say that I don't have an edge on the next hand, though. If I give up a little bit of EV in this hand by not playing "properly", but that in turns gains more EV by being able to play another hand.


Again, not something that I plan to "bring into my arsenal", but these types of situations do occur...I'd rather be ready for the situation than caught off-guard.

[DSchles]

See BJA3, pp. 384-5

Thought you were discussing something new, eh?

Don

[steveistheman84]

you could probably sim the penalty on cv of not splitting. as a rule of thumb, you can say if it's <1/3% adv of what you'd give up than the % gained from an extra hand, then stand. assuming that your expecting an extra hand 50% of the time.

[RS]

See BJA3, pp. 384-5

Thought you were discussing something new, eh?

Don

Ah, quite interesting. Thanks. I didn't know if it was something new or not -- I figured it had been thought of before, but....yeah. The steps/calculations seem fairly complex to say the least, at least for quick processing on the fly.


If such a situation were to arise (and I know it's going to arise, at least sometime), would you say the best bet is to simply play exactly how you normally would, without thinking about another hand at all?