Europe game

[skuner]

Hi,
I'm from Europe and I'm new in this forum. First of all sorry about any language mistakes.


This are the game rules I play:


6D - S17 - DOA - DAS - SPL3 - ENHC - Estimated adv -0.55%


I play in two casino, the main, where I play most of the time ( it's very close to me, only 20 min by car) the PEN is about 70-75% and the second, where some time i make a 2-3 days trip, the PEN is 80-85%.


If you play alone against the dealer you mandatory MUST play 2 spots.


At every spot till 3 players can play (obviously only the one sit down can take decision how to play, the any others two only make a bet).




This is my play strategy:


- HiLo
- BR 12000
- Spread 1-12/16
- Unit Bet 10
- I play only when max 4 spots are open ( my spot included)
- Enter the game at top of shoe and Wonging Out TC <= -2


- Betting Ramp:
TC < 1 10
1<= TC < 2 20
2<= TC < 3 20/20
3<= TC < 4 40/40
4<= TC < 5 60/60
5<= TC 80/80



- Often I play the second hand behind another player ( only if He play correct strategy) to avoid to open another spot
- Sometimes Backcounting at the 20 min table, betting like a 10 min table (behind another player using correct stategy) WONGING IN at TC>= 2 but WONGING OUT at TC<1


- Index:
8 vs 6 D TC >=3
9 vs 2 D TC >=1
9 vs 7 D TC >=4
11 vs 10 D TC >=3
12 vs 2 S TC >=3
12 vs 3 S TC >=2
12 vs 4 H TC <=-1
13 vs 2 H TC <=-2
15 vs 10 S TC >=4
16 vs 9 S TC >=4
16 vs 10 S TC >=0
Insurance TC >=3


If TC NEGATIVE:

NO DOUBLE
9 vs 3
10 vs 9
A2 vs 5-6
A3 vs 5
A4/A5 vs 4
A6/A7 vs 3


NO SPLIT
2,2/3,3/6,6/9,9 vs 2-3
4,4 vs 5-6




I've got some questions:


1) What's do you think about the game I play?
2) What's do you think about my play strategy?
3) To calculate EV and risk when I play my max bet with 2 hands of 80 I have to consider my bet spread 1-16 or 1-12 since, with the same risk, it's like to play one hand of 120 ( really less if I play 75% on two hands but I round)?
4) How said before if I play heads up I must play two spots. What's better, play alone with this rule or play at a crowed table? ( I prefer play with 2 or 3 others players, but since there are only 1 or 2 tables open it's difficult to find the best situation)
5)The casinos offer the side bet called Top Winner. In one casino If you get a BJ they pay 18:1, in the other casino if you get a BJ, only if the same color (red or black), they pay 35:1.
Is a profitable side bet If counting aces?


Thanks

[Percy]

1) The games seem good enough. If your counting is accurate your spread is good enough to beat the game. However, I recommend you buy the Casino Verite software to sim these results.
2) Good, but based on where I think you'll be playing I think you'll struggle to be as selective with your Wonging. I.e. I don't think there will be enough open tables. You may as well learn more indices if you're taking this seriously. My guess is you will only be able to take insurance when you have a BJ and the dealer has an ace.
3) Going from 1x10 to 2x80 is a spread of 1-12 not 1-16
4) Play alone. Always try to play alone, although if you're forced to min bet 2x10 your spread becomes pretty weak. Can't you bet 2x5?
5) Both side bets sounds very countable. If the max is reasonably high, my guess is you're going to make money on this. A counting system that sets (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) against (10,A) would be optimal, with the Ace being heavily weighted I believe.

If you're going to be betting behind people, I recommend you learn piggyback strategy. Basic Blackjack by Stanford Wong covers this.

Good luck - by all means PM me when you have enough posts

Percy

[mcallister3200]

With regards to strategy, learn the correct indices. In particular the index plays above for 11 vs. 10 and 10 vs.9 you would be noticeably better off playing basic than deviating where you are since you will be misplaying them at the times when they most frequently occur, nearly all the time if you're wonging out.

[skuner]

Thanks Percy for your answers,
about your question if I can play 2x5, yes I can in one of the two casino, but 5 min table are usually crowed.
So I' m thinking to change my betting ramp in this way when play heads up:

- Betting Ramp:
TC < 1 10/10
1<= TC < 2 20/20
2<= TC < 3 40/40
3<= TC < 4 60/60
4<= TC < 5 80/80
5<= TC < 6 120/120

My betting spread will be 1-12 and 1-16 when playing with others people and only one hand at TC <1 10

[skuner]

Thanks for your answer mccallister3200

[Dog Hand]

This are the game rules I play:

6D - S17 - DOA - DAS - SPL3 - ENHC - Estimated adv -0.55%

5)The casinos offer the side bet called Top Winner. In one casino If you get a BJ they pay 18:1, in the other casino if you get a BJ, only if the same color (red or black), they pay 35:1.
Is a profitable side bet If counting aces?

Thanks

skuner,

This sidebet can be beaten using HiLo. In particular, the 18:1 for any BJ becomes +EV when the HiLo TC is +2 or higher, and the 35:1 for colored BJ's becomes +EV at +3, assuming by "18:1" you mean 18-to-1, and not 18-for-1. The difference is that, for 18-to-1, you get your original bet back if you win, while for 18-for-1, you don't get your original bet back on a win.

Below is a table for how the EV varies with the HiLo TC. Note that, overall, the sidebets are negative. They only become positive when the TC is high enough.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

	Percentages	EV at 18:1	EV at 35:1
	BJ's		Colored
TOT	4.74%	-9.94%	-12.31%
12	8.29%	57.51%	53.37%
11	7.81%	48.39%	44.49%
10	7.53%	43.07%	39.31%
9	7.26%	37.94%	34.31%
8	6.92%	31.48%	28.02%
7	6.67%	26.73%	23.40%
6	6.35%	20.65%	17.48%
5	6.11%	16.09%	13.04%
4	5.85%	11.15%	8.23%
3	5.59%	6.21%	3.41%
2	5.33%	1.27%	-1.40%

[skuner]

Thanks Dog Hand,
your answer is very usefull for me, so I'll play this side bet more consciously.
About 18:1 I mean, how you assumed, 18-to-1.
Just to know if I understood, you mean using HiLo is enough, no aces side count is required, right?

[Shark]

Skuner, I have played the 35:1 game. There is a better approach to attack the side bet but it requires a specialized count. Since you can bet more on side bet than main BJ bet and can back bet other players it is the optimal strategy to squeeze the maximum from those games. You can send me a private message for more details. Perci. you too can ask me about optimal strategy and location, if interested.

[Dog Hand]

Thanks Dog Hand,
your answer is very usefull for me, so I'll play this side bet more consciously.
About 18:1 I mean, how you assumed, 18-to-1.
Just to know if I understood, you mean using HiLo is enough, no aces side count is required, right?

skuner,

I mentioned that HiLo will work, but as Shark correctly indicates, HiLo is far from ideal for extracting the maximum EV from the sidebet. I usedHiLo since you mentioned that you use it yourself, but if you can bet more on the SB than on BJ, then you'd be better served using a specialized count to attack the SB.

Dog Hand

[RS]

What kind of count would you use to attack the SB? Insurance Count & Side Count Aces? Would this side bet give out more EV than a 1-12 or even 1-16 spread on the game? I'd imagine variance would be a b**** for this side bet, though. =\ Is there a mathematical way to figure out the strike point or would you sim it using CVData to figure it out?