Reading Trends

[andrewkadar]

I'm reading John Patrick's book "Blackjack for the 21s century (is this a good book to read?" And he has a very interesting yet thought-provoking chapter called "Reading Trends. He says he'll watch a table and wait for the dealer to go on a cold streak(3-4 bust cards in a row) before sitting down. Is this an accurate method? I thought it wouldn't be because the previous hands should have no effect on the future ones. Or is there some legitamacy to this approach? At no time does he mention card counting so that is out of the picture

[AussiePlayer]

Haven't read the book myself, but it sounds like utter crap. I'd bin it as soon as I came across something like that.

[SeeWhatHappens]

I think all the casinos are going to panic about this book being published , not

[max85]

crap sounds like a gambler

[DM21]

I thought it wouldn't be because the previous hands should have no effect on the future ones.

Stop reading and erase it from your memory. There is no way you can see a trend over such a short sample as in a session, day, week or even a year. I would stick with reading books that are written by reputable blackjack authors; Norm, Don, Stanford, Arnold, etc.

[Kat]

Stop reading and erase it from your memory. There is no way you can see a trend over such a short sample as in a session, day, week or even a year. I would stick with reading books that are written by reputable blackjack authors; Norm, Don, Stanford, Arnold, etc.

Exactly. Not charlatans like Patrick.

[Locks]

Who actually published this? A Casino?

[MidniteToker]

The guy sells a bunch of other "strategy" books, including an "advanced craps" one that appears to rely on progression betting systems. So yeah, charlatan through and through.

[mofungoo]

Move to Voodoo.

[MidniteToker]

I think Mofungoo would be a great voodoo priest name.

[garylee]

Stick with a legit author like Wong or Revere. Besides if a bunch of 10's came through to keep busting the dealer wouldn't that lead you to believe there might be quite a few small cards left in the deck?

[Kat]

I think Mofungoo would be a great voodoo priest name.

Yeah, but there are other (even funnier) connotations to this great username, are there not...

[RS]

I guess I'm going slightly against the grain here....


When he says wait for a dealer to have 3-4 bust cards up, that actually has some validity because bust cards (2-6) make the count higher, giving you more of an edge (rather, less of a disadvantage), on average (since everyone else might have a bunch of tens, or whatever).

It's kind of like the "if the dealer makes a 4+ card hand, bet big on the next hand" -- because many little cards have been used to finish the hand. Or "decrease your bet after a player (or dealer) get a blackjack" -- that's one less ace and one less face.


Of course, this stuff is by no means advantage-play, but rather stuff that can be used by a recreational player to at least somewhat decrease the house edge, to a small extent. If you know how to count, then just ignore all that stuff about seeing "bust-card" trends or whatever. If your mom wants to play BJ, you might advise her "after you see a bunch of tens, lower your bet, and if you ever see a bunch of players taking lots of hits and/or dealer taking lots of hits, you should increase your bet a little bit", of course she wouldn't be playing a winning-game....but you get the point.