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Thread: Can player casino interaction be simulated on a computer?

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    Can player casino interaction be simulated on a computer?

    The real test of a system is in a casino not on a computer. The computer will let you do all kinds of things that will get you the ax in the casino. Just play the way the sim says and see how long you last if you aren't playing for peanuts. The sim is a good strategy starting point but not the playing diagram.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    The real test of a system is in a casino not on a computer. The computer will let you do all kinds of things that will get you the ax in the casino. Just play the way the sim says and see how long you last if you aren't playing for peanuts. The sim is a good strategy starting point but not the playing diagram.
    Sorry, but this is exactly what all the progression books say. The computer will do what you tell it to do. Don't tell it to do something that would get you the ax.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Patterns are what the eye looks for. If I can figure out how to make a computer play what looks random without too much cost you would be right but there are too many variables that happen on the spot that can't be part of a sim like how a pit is perceiving you. Anything you tell a computer to do will have to be a pattern or not in correlated to what is happening in the pit. The patternless nature that your play must have to not get backed off starts with the sim that is nothing but the computer following a pattern. Then you must modify the pattern to seem patternless to keep from being made without costing too much. It is the art of the game. The sim is a great tool for knowing what your pattern get BOed play returns and the cost of various ways too make your play seem more random when it comes to the count. You must budget moves that fit into your profit schedule and use them sparingly as needed given the pit's reaction to your play or to set a desired impression and control their interest. The raw data can be simmed but not the actual use of same as pit reaction is not a constant.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Why do you think this can't be simmed? As well as five dimensional betting strategies, CVData has a set of Heat parameters that vary play and betting.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Because the computer can't react in the same way a casino will. It is dynamic. It is not predictable and is dependent on human variables not a science. That can't be simmed. It is like simming what route I might take while hunting in the woods. I might like to keep the wind in my face and the sun at my back while sticking to the shadows and quieter ground to move across using terrain to my advantage considering how it will affect wind patterns by creating eddies and blind spots for areas that are ahead but I will encounter sign and interact with living beings and react to their reaction and alter my computer optimal path as I encounter these. There is no way to put actual odds to such a fluid dynamic. You can try but it would be a lie to expect any sort of accuracy. You would just be fooling yourself.

    Analyzing your play in retrospect and averaging the data from the sims to how you react at a given casino with the team you encounter in the pit is the only way to get a realistic view of the return given how you must play at a given casino and shift. Such fluid systems that react to unpredictable stimuli make for poor results when you start predicting the stimuli. Like they say garbage in garbage out. The sim will tell you your results for a predictable reaction to your presence and what you might do when you encounter same. If only it were that easy everyone could play longer sessions for a big spread and top bet without getting backed off. In reality only the true artists of our profession can pull that off. We all can master the math and most can use it in a casino but there is so much more to what we do than that.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Again, why do you think a computer can't sim this? A computer can sim an atomic reaction. What you are talking about is trivial in comparison. As for simming that walk through the woods, have you seen modern games?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Like I said if it were that easy everyone would get a trophy buck each year or each time out. It is an art. You can sim but it is not accurate or realistic. They sim stuff all the time in science but the degree of certainty is the question. Like with astrophysics. There is best assumption lumped on best assumption all with the best degree of certainty available but a very low degree of certainty. Yo get the best results possible for a sim but the degree of certainty is really low like 5% indicating you are most likely wrong (95% of the time) but the degree of certainty is higher than any other course of logic available so that is the best you can do in terms of certainty. And that is if your assumptions are even close to accurate. Yes you can sim it but the results are nothing but a guess. That guess might be very accurate if your assumptions are good or it may be way way off if your assumptions are poor. That will vary by casino and team in the pit/eye that you encounter. That is the point. What are the assumptions the sim is making? I don't know so how can I gage its accuracy for the varying conditions I actually encounter. The usefulness of the tool goes down with the number of assumptions you make to get the results. In my opinion that makes simming this type of thing to have diminishing results the more unpredictable variables you start making the computer predict.

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    You appear to have a very simplistic idea of simulation. Your belief that simulation results in astrophysics have an accuracy of 5% is way off. Before going to Mars, it wasn't just the flight that was simmed. It was the extremely complex landing on unpredictable terrain. The landing would never have been possible without the simulation. Dams, airplanes, bridges, all are simmed before being built. How will they hold up in earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes? All this is simmed.

    Blackjack sims do not "predict" variables. That wouldn't be a sim. A sim "randomly" presents variables, including periods of heat.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    I was more referring to the astrophysics over light years of distance not some short distance. The degree of accuracy is far different between the two.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Dams, airplanes, bridges, all are simmed before being built. How will they hold up in earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes? All this is simmed.
    Tell that to the residents around Fukishima.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I was more referring to the astrophysics over light years of distance not some short distance. The degree of accuracy is far different between the two.
    They have simulated the Big Bang. Is that far enough away.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Tell that to the residents around Fukishima.
    TEPCO ignored the sims and admitted that they failed to follow international standards and recommendations.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Obviously they forgot to factor the chances of TEPCO's actions into the sim, Norm! Hahahaa My count can be easily enough simmed, Tthree. It's amazing just how far computer science has gone in recent years, seemingly with advances on nearly a daily basis even. Something as simple as what I do is a walk in the park. It's just a matter of finding someone to do it! At a little meeting with Michael Shackleford in Vegas he suggested to me that if I put enough money out there it'll get done quick enough, although he was busy, buried in and couldn't devote the time to it. It's no big deal, screw it.
    Last edited by Tarzan; 06-11-2013 at 07:48 AM.

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