# Thread: Dropping from 2x hands to 1x hand in CVCX? Lowest Count Tracked erroring?

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## Dropping from 2x hands to 1x hand in CVCX? Lowest Count Tracked erroring?

I can't figure out how to sim this.....errr, rather, how to modify the "manual bet ramp" in the post-sim page.

I'm trying to do something like this: Start the shoe off with 2x50. If TC goes positive, then spread to a max bet of 2x300, or some other arbitrary number that doesn't really matter (for discussion/question's sake, that is). If the TC hits -3 or lower, then play 1x50. If the TC hits -6 or lower, then play 1x25.

Something else that'd be great, although I'm pretty sure isn't possible with CVCX, would be if once the TC hits a -3 or -6 (or whatever I make the "threshold" be), then from that point on it can only play 1 hand and can't jump back to 2 hands.

When I click on "play 2 hands", it appears I can either select 0 for "always play 2 hands", select 1 for "play 2 hands for TC>=1, 1 hand at TC<1", select 2 for "play 2 hands for TC>=2, 1 hand @ TC<2", etc..Although, I want to play 2 hands when the TC is at -2 and only drop to 1 hand when the TC is -3.

Can this be done? Or is there a work-around type thing where I leave the sim playing 2 hands at the negative counts, but have them be something like 2x25 (instead of 1x50) or 2x12.5 (instead of 1x25), so even though it's not completely accurate, it's still "close enough", so it won't throw off other stats too much, like EV, ROR, SCORE, variance, etc.? Or does that leave room for too much inaccuracy?

PS: How many millions of rounds do you recommend to sim?

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A post-sim calculator, like CVCX, can't sim this kind of betting. That requires CVData.

I tend to sim around a billion when I'm doing a quick check. More if I'm posting a number.

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Okay -- I see why it wouldn't be able to stay at one hand once a certain threshold is met, then stay at 1 hand for the rest of the shoe.

But if I'm able to have it play 1x hand from TC <= 2 and 2x hand from TC > 2.......how can I not get it to play 1x hand at TC <= -3 and 2x hand at TC > -3? It's the same thing, just shifting the TC threshold by 5.

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You can if you rerun the sim and change the lowest count option.

The problem is that changing the number of hands changes the count frequencies. CVCX uses a very large set of tables to estimate this effect. But, it can't handle every situation without having millions of such tables. You simply cannot make such changes AFTER a sim is run. CVData can handle this as all settings are made prior to the sim.

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Originally Posted by Norm
You can if you rerun the sim and change the lowest count option.
I put lowest count tracked to -6. The post-sim page goes down to -6, but when I go to click the "Play Two Hands" box to a negative number, it won't go any lower than 0. Looks like "play two hands @ 0" means "always play 2 hands", while "play two hands @ 1" means play 2 hands at TC >= 1 and 1 hand at TC < 1.

When I try to manually adjust the bet to 1x10 or 1x5 when "play two hands @ 0", it forces it to stay at 2 hand. If I put "play two hands @ 1", then I can manually adjust the negative TCs to play 1 hand, but I can't make them play 2 hands.

ie: I want TC <= -6 == 1x5 | -6 < TC <= -3 == 1x10 | TC >= -3 == 2x10 | and so on, or whatever it suggests.....but it doesn't (or can't) suggest playing 2 hands at negative counts as well as playing 1 hand at lower negative counts.

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Ahh, sorry. Yes, that's the way it works. It simply isn't possible to have that kind of freedom in a post-sim calculator and provide accurate results. You need CVData for that.

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One trick we used to use, when trying to simulate going from 2x\$50 to 1x\$50 in a negative count we would just plug in 2x\$37 when heads up. You're playing 50% more rounds so you only get 50% of the benefit of the bet reduction (i.e., 2x\$37 = \$75 total per round). With more players eating up negative rounds you have other choices like sitting out completely (throwing the other players under the bus) and letting them eat up the negative rounds. If you drop to 1 hand there is still a penalty but not as much so you might plug in 2x\$30 to simulate 1x\$50 at a full table. We started doing this back when BJRM was the only choice for this kind of simulation.

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So going from 2x10 to 1x10 (in reality)...I should plug in 2x7.50? And if I want to drop it to 1x5, I should plug in 2x3.75?

because 7.5 * 2 = 15 which is 150% of \$10. And 3.75 * 2 = 7.50 which is 150% of \$5?

Thanks, BP. But what kind of side effects would this have on the sim? How would things like variance, ROR, and EV be effected?

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This is not going to give an exact answer, it's a rough approximation of what happens when going from 2 hands to 1 hand in a negative count. You will need to run a few companion simulations with CVData to see how close this approach gets you. The primary side effect of dropping to 1 hand in negative counts is that you have to play more rounds to get through the shoe. With other players you have the benefit of them eating the negative rounds for you (so you can just sit out). Generally I'd prefer to just stay at two hands all the time and get through the shoe as fast as you can. It's problematic if you're at a casino that requires 2x the table min to play two spots, in which case you're dropping from 2x\$50 to 1x\$25 and that creates a definite benefit to dropping a hand out even factoring in the extra rounds you have to play. Of course sitting out or changing tables is the preferred strategy, but we all know sometimes there is just one specific table with the playable game and you don't want to give it up...especially if you've taken the time to get the limits raised, the no-smoking sign set up, etc.

Originally Posted by RollingStoned
Thanks, BP. But what kind of side effects would this have on the sim? How would things like variance, ROR, and EV be effected?

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