# Thread: 21forme: Question for Don re results calc.

1. ## 21forme: Question for Don re results calc.

Don,
Assuming I'm playing a standard AC game (8D, S17, no surr, etc.) using HiLo count, I18, spreading 1:10, with max bet at +4 and wonging out at -1. How would I calculate the likelihood of being in +EV territory for a given number of hours of play? Thanks.

2. ## Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

> Don,
> Assuming I'm playing a standard AC game (8D, S17, no
> surr, etc.) using HiLo count, I18, spreading 1:10,

Optimally, or with some kind of rational pattern?

> with max bet at +4 and wonging out at -1. How would I
> calculate the likelihood of being in +EV territory for
> a given number of hours of play? Thanks.

Not sure I understand what you mean by "being in positive EV territory." Are you asking what the likelihood is that you'll be winning money after a certain number of hours of play, or are you asking what percentage of an hour you spend with positive EV, on average?

Don

3. ## 21forme: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

> Optimally, or with some kind of rational pattern?

Optimally.

> Not sure I understand what you mean by "being in
> positive EV territory." Are you asking what the
> likelihood is that you'll be winning money after a
> certain number of hours of play, or are you asking
> what percentage of an hour you spend with positive EV,
> on average?

> Don

I'm looking for the likelihood of having won money after x number of hours of play. Thanks.

4. ## Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

> Don,
> Assuming I'm playing a standard AC game (8D, S17, no
> surr, etc.) using HiLo count, I18, spreading 1:10,
> with max bet at +4 and wonging out at -1. How would I
> calculate the likelihood of being in +EV territory for
> a given number of hours of play? Thanks.

DO you have BJA3? If so, see pp. 19-21, especially Table 2.2, on p. 21. If not, write back, and I can walk you through hourly e.v., s.d. and the method needed to find your answer.

Don

5. ## Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

> I'm looking for the likelihood of having won money
> after x number of hours of play. Thanks.

That's what I thought. Easier to express that as "the probability of being ahead after x hours of play." Table 2.2 of BJA3, p. 21, gives some representative numbers.

Do you know your hourly e.v. and s.d? If so, the answer is straightforward. If not, I can probably get the values for you.

Don

6. ## 21forme: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

> DO you have BJA3?

Does a bear go poo-poo in the woods? :.) Of course, I do.

If so, see pp. 19-21, especially
> Table 2.2, on p. 21. If not, write back, and I can
> walk you through hourly e.v., s.d. and the method
> needed to find your answer.

> Don

Table 2.2 gives me what I need to know. Thanks!

7. ## Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

> Does a bear go poo-poo in the woods? :.) Of course, I
> do.

LOL! Then, you have to know how to use it as a reference tool! :-)

> Table 2.2 gives me what I need to know. Thanks!

Glad to oblige.

Don

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