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Thread: 21forme: Question for Don re results calc.

  1. #1
    21forme
    Guest

    21forme: Question for Don re results calc.

    Don,
    Assuming I'm playing a standard AC game (8D, S17, no surr, etc.) using HiLo count, I18, spreading 1:10, with max bet at +4 and wonging out at -1. How would I calculate the likelihood of being in +EV territory for a given number of hours of play? Thanks.

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

    > Don,
    > Assuming I'm playing a standard AC game (8D, S17, no
    > surr, etc.) using HiLo count, I18, spreading 1:10,

    Optimally, or with some kind of rational pattern?

    > with max bet at +4 and wonging out at -1. How would I
    > calculate the likelihood of being in +EV territory for
    > a given number of hours of play? Thanks.

    Not sure I understand what you mean by "being in positive EV territory." Are you asking what the likelihood is that you'll be winning money after a certain number of hours of play, or are you asking what percentage of an hour you spend with positive EV, on average?

    Don

  3. #3
    21forme
    Guest

    21forme: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

    > Optimally, or with some kind of rational pattern?

    Optimally.

    > Not sure I understand what you mean by "being in
    > positive EV territory." Are you asking what the
    > likelihood is that you'll be winning money after a
    > certain number of hours of play, or are you asking
    > what percentage of an hour you spend with positive EV,
    > on average?

    > Don

    I'm looking for the likelihood of having won money after x number of hours of play. Thanks.

  4. #4
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

    > Don,
    > Assuming I'm playing a standard AC game (8D, S17, no
    > surr, etc.) using HiLo count, I18, spreading 1:10,
    > with max bet at +4 and wonging out at -1. How would I
    > calculate the likelihood of being in +EV territory for
    > a given number of hours of play? Thanks.

    DO you have BJA3? If so, see pp. 19-21, especially Table 2.2, on p. 21. If not, write back, and I can walk you through hourly e.v., s.d. and the method needed to find your answer.

    Don

  5. #5
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

    > I'm looking for the likelihood of having won money
    > after x number of hours of play. Thanks.

    That's what I thought. Easier to express that as "the probability of being ahead after x hours of play." Table 2.2 of BJA3, p. 21, gives some representative numbers.

    Do you know your hourly e.v. and s.d? If so, the answer is straightforward. If not, I can probably get the values for you.

    Don

  6. #6
    21forme
    Guest

    21forme: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

    > DO you have BJA3?

    Does a bear go poo-poo in the woods? :.) Of course, I do.

    If so, see pp. 19-21, especially
    > Table 2.2, on p. 21. If not, write back, and I can
    > walk you through hourly e.v., s.d. and the method
    > needed to find your answer.

    > Don

    Table 2.2 gives me what I need to know. Thanks!

  7. #7
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Question for Don re results calc.

    > Does a bear go poo-poo in the woods? :.) Of course, I
    > do.

    LOL! Then, you have to know how to use it as a reference tool! :-)

    > Table 2.2 gives me what I need to know. Thanks!

    Glad to oblige.

    Don

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