blackjack crusader: NO and Guarantee? for Don

[blackjack crusader]

With optimal fixed bets:

At NO you have a 84% chance of at least doubling bank?

At 4NO you have a 97.7% chance of at least doubling bank?

What is the % at 9NO?

Before playing up to 4NO or perhaps 9NO would it be correct to say we are in the SD wind and we have to play these number of hands to have a sense of guaranteed income?

thank you very much for your time

[Don Schlesinger]

> With optimal fixed bets:

> At NO you have a 84% chance of at least doubling bank?

Don't we wish! No, it's not that. We have an 84% of winning at all; i.e., we have a 16% chance of still being losers. We also have a 16% chance of winning more than our bank size (thereby doubling our bank). But that doesn't mean that we have an 84% chance of at least doubling our bank! Do you understand the difference?

> At 4NO you have a 97.7% chance of at least doubling
> bank?

See above. Same idea.

> What is the % at 9NO?

99.7%.

> Before playing up to 4NO or perhaps 9NO would it be
> correct to say we are in the SD wind and we have to
> play these number of hands to have a sense of
> guaranteed income?

The math is what it is, and you can word it any way that makes you comfortable. Many people prefer to call 2 s.d.s (4N0) the "long run," and that gives you the 97.7% probability of being ahead at least one dollar that you refer to above. As for "guaranteed income," best you not think of it that way!

> thank you very much for your time

My pleasure.

Don