> What is the average unit bet if using Oscar's Grind?
Blackjack Crusader,
First, I had to search the Web to find out exactly what "Oscar's Grind" (OG) is. I finally located a clear description on bjmath: see link.
I simmed OG in Excel for a hypothetical game in which each hand is either a win or a loss: no ties, no double downs, no BJ bonuses. Think of flipping an unbiased coin, so the winning probability p=0.5. The Excel sheet calculated the results for 50,000 games and displayed the Average bet, the Max bet, and the Player's Edge (in percent). Here are the results for 10 runs:
p = 0.50
Avg Max Edge
12.9 292 -0.16
11.6 480 +1.33
9.3 312 +1.65
15.5 346 +0.92
14.0 383 +1.02
27.2 773 +0.53
57.4 1318 +0.24
7.3 288 +2.19
15.7 612 +0.97
57.4 1212 -1.76
.
Now, if you're lucky enough to get a coin biased in your favor, such that p = 0.51, these are the simmed results:
p = 0.51
Avg Max Edge
11.9 574 +1.39
6.4 245 +2.72
6.2 195 +2.74
5.8 150 +2.99
5.4 179 +3.21
19.8 821 +0.78
6.0 167 +2.75
6.5 195 +2.62
5.9 205 +2.80
5.2 142 +3.26
.
So what happens if the biased coin is against you, such that p = 0.49? Here are the gory details:
p = 0.49
Avg Max Edge
7622.6 19315 -2.06
2939.7 11709 -1.75
26.6 567 +0.46
11647.8 23891 -1.98
1760.6 9214 -2.70
7786.9 19458 -2.18
65.4 1527 +0.15
7914.9 19719 -1.53
198.8 2069 -0.82
26.9 490 +0.45
.
Finally, just for kicks, I ran a case with p = 0.48:
p = 0.48
Avg Max Edge
10620.3 22627 -3.57
11165.0 23209 -3.50
10514.4 22482 -3.84
11718.0 23810 -3.24
8486.8 20120 -4.45
10059.2 21917 -4.48
10088.7 22003 -3.92
376.1 3898 -2.73
9028.0 20878 -3.41
10611.2 22590 -3.82
.
As you can see, even in the most-optimistic case shown, you'll need to be prepared to place a max bet of over 800 units.
If you'd like a copy of the Excel spreadsheet, shoot me an email and I'll send it to you.
Hope this helps!
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