Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: Blackjack Crusader: ? for Don

  1. #1
    Blackjack Crusader
    Guest

    Blackjack Crusader: ? for Don

    What is the average unit bet if using Oscar's Grind?

    Thanx for your time!

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: ? for Don

    > What is the average unit bet if using Oscar's Grind?

    I have no idea. I assume that you mean if you are playing blackjack, because the game that you're playing matters, of course.

    Maybe someone can run a sim. May I ask your reason for inquiring? We don't get a lot of progression questions around here! :-)

    Don

  3. #3
    Blackjack Crusader
    Guest

    Blackjack Crusader: Re: ? for Don

    > I have no idea. I assume that you mean if you are
    > playing blackjack, because the game that you're
    > playing matters, of course.

    > Maybe someone can run a sim. May I ask your reason for
    > inquiring? We don't get a lot of progression questions
    > around here! :-)

    > Don

    Yes, playing blackjack with Catch 22 indices.

    Don't worry I know progressions don't work, However, I am curious about using Oscars or perhaps a more useful progression in a more appropriate situation.

    Thnx again


  4. #4
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Don, is going to fire me! :-)

    For recreational purposes or as cover plays, in a casino where you are counting at their BJ tables, you can select an independent trial?s game, let?s say roulette (single zero, not the American one) or craps with the even (almost even) bets and lay your progression there. The ?best? one seems to be The Fibonacci. You will lose against any negative expectation game in the long run, naturally, but let?s say you will last a little bit longer, while showing a distinct air of ?superiority? over the average gambler.

    Fibonacci: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 and so on.

    Winning = bet the next one
    Losing = reduce two steps back

    Hope this doesn?t help! :-)

    Zf


  5. #5
    Dog Hand
    Guest

    Dog Hand: Be Prepared to Bet BIG!


    > What is the average unit bet if using Oscar's Grind?

    Blackjack Crusader,

    First, I had to search the Web to find out exactly what "Oscar's Grind" (OG) is. I finally located a clear description on bjmath: see link.

    I simmed OG in Excel for a hypothetical game in which each hand is either a win or a loss: no ties, no double downs, no BJ bonuses. Think of flipping an unbiased coin, so the winning probability p=0.5. The Excel sheet calculated the results for 50,000 games and displayed the Average bet, the Max bet, and the Player's Edge (in percent). Here are the results for 10 runs:
     
    p = 0.50
    Avg Max Edge
    12.9 292 -0.16
    11.6 480 +1.33
    9.3 312 +1.65
    15.5 346 +0.92
    14.0 383 +1.02
    27.2 773 +0.53
    57.4 1318 +0.24
    7.3 288 +2.19
    15.7 612 +0.97
    57.4 1212 -1.76
    .

    Now, if you're lucky enough to get a coin biased in your favor, such that p = 0.51, these are the simmed results:
     
    p = 0.51
    Avg Max Edge
    11.9 574 +1.39
    6.4 245 +2.72
    6.2 195 +2.74
    5.8 150 +2.99
    5.4 179 +3.21
    19.8 821 +0.78
    6.0 167 +2.75
    6.5 195 +2.62
    5.9 205 +2.80
    5.2 142 +3.26
    .

    So what happens if the biased coin is against you, such that p = 0.49? Here are the gory details:
     
    p = 0.49
    Avg Max Edge
    7622.6 19315 -2.06
    2939.7 11709 -1.75
    26.6 567 +0.46
    11647.8 23891 -1.98
    1760.6 9214 -2.70
    7786.9 19458 -2.18
    65.4 1527 +0.15
    7914.9 19719 -1.53
    198.8 2069 -0.82
    26.9 490 +0.45
    .

    Finally, just for kicks, I ran a case with p = 0.48:
     
    p = 0.48
    Avg Max Edge
    10620.3 22627 -3.57
    11165.0 23209 -3.50
    10514.4 22482 -3.84
    11718.0 23810 -3.24
    8486.8 20120 -4.45
    10059.2 21917 -4.48
    10088.7 22003 -3.92
    376.1 3898 -2.73
    9028.0 20878 -3.41
    10611.2 22590 -3.82
    .

    As you can see, even in the most-optimistic case shown, you'll need to be prepared to place a max bet of over 800 units.

    If you'd like a copy of the Excel spreadsheet, shoot me an email and I'll send it to you.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand



  6. #6
    blackjack crusader
    Guest

    blackjack crusader: Thnx 4 your time, yes you should be fired :>) *NM*


  7. #7
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Instructive data

    Your both examples, mainly those addressed at the realistic .49 and .48 expectations, are very instructive, and show clearly, what to expect from this inveterate gamblers'nonsense.

    Zf

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.