I'm pretty sure this is right, but just to confirm.....say I was playing with some spread (say 1-12) and I ended up with some std. dev. (say 40 units or whatever). If I switched from the 1-12 spread to flat-betting, with my flat bet being equal to the average bet that I had when I was using the 1-12 spread, then my std. dev. wouldn't change much, correct? It would just increase very slightly due to the drop in e.v.?
> I'm pretty sure this is right,
It isn't! :-)
> but just to
> confirm.....say I was playing with some spread (say
> 1-12) and I ended up with some std. dev. (say 40 units
> or whatever).
OK.
> If I switched from the 1-12 spread to
> flat-betting, with my flat bet being equal to the
> average bet that I had when I was using the 1-12
> spread,
Which may be, say, 2.5 units or so.
> then my std. dev. wouldn't change much,
> correct?
No, incorrect. In the above case, it would be about 1.15 x 2.5 x 10 = 28.75, which is considerably less than 43.
> It would just increase very slightly due to
> the drop in e.v.?
a) It would decrease considerably, and b) S.d. has nothing whatsoever to do with e.v. They are unrelated. The e.v. plays no role in calculating the s.d.
Don
> It isn't! :-)
Boy, I'm glad I asked
> OK.
> Which may be, say, 2.5 units or so.
> No, incorrect. In the above case, it would be about
> 1.15 x 2.5 x 10 = 28.75, which is considerably less
> than 43.
I should probably know this by know, but....what's the equation for that? I'm not sure what the 1.15 & the 10 represent.
> a) It would decrease considerably, and b) S.d. has
> nothing whatsoever to do with e.v. They are unrelated.
> The e.v. plays no role in calculating the s.d.
You had mentioned in that one thread that the average squared result of a hand dwarfs the average expectation for a hand, so the e.v. is negligible in the s.d. calculation. So I thought that the e.v. drop would have have some kind of really small impact on the s.d.
> Don
> I should probably know this by know, but....what's the
> equation for that? I'm not sure what the 1.15 &
> the 10 represent.
Oh shoot, could I look at it as:
variance/100 = (per hand variance at 1 unit) * (avg bet)^2 * (100 hands)
so
std dev/100 = [(per hand variance at 1 unit) * (avg bet)^2 * (100 hands)]^0.5
= (per hand variance at 1 unit)^0.5 * (avg bet) * 100^0.5
= 1.3^0.5 * 2.5 * 10
= 1.15 * 2.5 * 10
Is that right?
Hey Don? I apologize for questioning you about this, but in the process of trying to understand this I saw something in a previous thread that I didn't get:
>> If the count called for a bet of 4 units and I
>> decided to bet 8 units instead, and I did this exactly
>> twice out of every 100 hands, how would I calculate
>> the effect these two plays would have on my SD?
> Basically, to the hourly variance of 900 (the square of s.d.),
> you're now adding 2 x 4^2 x 1.3 (two hands of four extra units,
> assuming average variance of about 1.3). That raises the variance
> by 32 x 1.3 = 41.6, to 941.6.
Wouldn't we actually be replacing two bets of 4 units with two bets of 8 units? Wouldn't
2 x 4^2 x 1.3 = 41.6
get replaced by
2 x 8^2 x 1.3 = 166.4
with a resulting variance increase of 166.4 - 41.6 = 124.8?
(Apologies if I'm still not understanding this.)
pm
>>Wouldn't we actually be replacing two bets of 4 units with two bets of 8 units? Wouldn't
2 x 4^2 x 1.3 = 41.6
get replaced by
2 x 8^2 x 1.3 = 166.4
with a resulting variance increase of 166.4 - 41.6 = 124.8?
(Apologies if I'm still not understanding this.)
You're absolutely right. Rather unusual for me to make this sloppy kind of mistake. I apologize. You obviously understand it better thasn I do! :-)
Don
> You're absolutely right. Rather unusual for me to make
> this sloppy kind of mistake. I apologize. You
> obviously understand it better thasn I do! :-)
> Don
Lol, as is evidenced by my first post in this thread (just a giant mistake). I guess this means you're human too
pm
> Lol, as is evidenced by my first post in this thread
> (just a giant mistake). I guess this means you're
> human too
Yes, I suppose so, but I can't tell you how it pisses me off! :-)
Don
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