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Thread: Myooligan: Presenting Myooligan's level 2, balanced ace prediction count

  1. #1
    Myooligan
    Guest

    Myooligan: Presenting Myooligan's level 2, balanced ace prediction count

    Hello all. Finally bought BJA3, and I'm looking forward to learning a lot from Don's Domain. Yet, tis better to give than receive, so I thought I'd throw this out for y'all's consideration. Came up with it a while back, but didn't want to post it on free pages.

    Let's say you are playing basic strategy while you wait to predict aces. You know an ace is coming next round, but as you shove out 42.08% of your bankroll, you get this queazy feeling inside. You're sure you've seen a lot of tens come out already. Ever since you were a kid, momma has been telling you that each of those aces will cost you .51% of your edge. But mom never knew you'd run off and become an ace tracker. . .

    I'm sure it won't surprise anybody that tens are much more valuable to an ace tracker than a card counter. I wanted to know exactly how much, and I couldn't find the information anywhere, so I did some simming. Here's what I came up with:
     
    eors GIVEN an Ace in Hand
    2 0.76%
    3 0.65%
    4 0.86%
    5 1.12%
    6 0.77%
    7 0.52%
    8 0.26%
    9 -0.09%
    10 -1.68%
    J -1.68%
    Q -1.68%
    K -1.68%
    A 2.20%
    SumSqrs: 0.20%
    Full Deck: 52.65%

    I'll leave the commentary for others who are interested, but here's one application of this research:

    eor tag

    2 0.76% 1
    3 0.65% 1
    4 0.86% 1
    5 1.12% 1
    6 0.77% 1
    7 0.52% 1
    8 0.26% 0
    9 -0.09% 0
    10 -1.68% -2
    J -1.68% -2
    Q -1.68% -2
    K -1.68% -2
    A 2.20% 2
    Betting Correlation: 98.62%
    Avg. Value per TC point:0.85%

    Hope this proves valuable to someone, and that it stimulates some sort of discussion!

  2. #2
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: A few comments

    Hello all.

    Glad to see you round here. Welcome!

    Let's say you are playing basic strategy while you wait to predict aces.

    Predicting aces is far from easy. A sort of well versed shuffle-tracker plus extra keen eyes. So, playing BS meanwhile looks easy. Another question is keeping a traditional card counting system at the same time. Make no mistakes here. Definitely, not for everyone.

    eors GIVEN an Ace in hand

    You?d pay attention to the check sum of any given table. To be considered a fair one you?d strive for something within [0.01] at max. I got [0.33] for yours.

    Full Deck: 52.65%

    Ace as first varies as a function of the decks (and rules, too). How many decks did you used here?

    Sumsqrs: 0.20%

    Squaring the individual EoR?s and adding them together, is an indicator of the volatility. For your EoR?s printed I got 20.06

    Betting Correlation: 98.62%

    Again, for the figures you gave us, the correlation is O.K. Good job, here.

    Hope this proves valuable to someone

    The way you plan to capitalize on this, strikes to me difficult to figure it out. I?m a little bit lost here.

    All in all, our game at the present current times seems to cater for light and no-brainer systems. Anything that is far away from extra mental efforts is a winner today. At least that?s what can be inferred by reading certain forums, lately. Don?t let they fool you. Being complete right or somehow wrong, is less important than searching through your own ideas. So, thanks for posting these here.

    Sincerely

    Zenfighter


  3. #3
    Myooligan
    Guest

    Myooligan: Re: A few comments

    > Welcome!

    Good to see you and thanks for the feedback.

    > You?d pay attention to the
    > check sum of any given table. To be considered a fair
    > one you?d strive for something within [0.01] at max. I
    > got [0.33] for yours.

    Good point. The sd for each EOR was .08%. 13 * .08% = 1.04% So .33% is about par for the course. If there is sufficient interest, I'll come up with more accurate figures.

    > Full Deck: 52.65% Ace as first varies as a function
    > of the decks (and rules, too). How many decks did you
    > used here?

    39/52 SD, H17, DOA. I was interested in using ace tracking for cover (and profit!) on SD games

    > Sumsqrs: 0.20% Squaring the individual EoR?s and
    > adding them together, is an indicator of the
    > volatility. For your EoR?s printed I got 20.06

    Please recheck. The sumsq function on Excel gives me .20%, as does my own recheck.

    > The way you
    > plan to capitalize on this, strikes to me difficult to
    > figure it out. I?m a little bit lost here.

    I'm aiming to use it on SD games. The edge isn't much compared to a friendly multideck shuffle, but you can't jump your bet enough to capitalize on it anyway (without blowing your cover), so what does it matter?

    For shoe games, though, if you're in a situation where ace prediction methods suggest a bet of, say, 5% of your bankroll, a slightly negative "ace prediction count" tc would prevent you from making a losing wager.

    But really, the question of how to make use of this information is part of why I posted here. . . haven't thought about other applications all that much. Figured I might catch the interest of somebody who'd do some pro bono thinking for me.

    > All in all, our game at the present current times
    > seems to cater for light and no-brainer systems.
    > Anything that is far away from extra mental efforts is
    > a winner today. At least that?s what can be inferred
    > by reading certain forums, lately. Don?t let they fool
    > you. Being complete right or somehow wrong, is less
    > important than searching through your own ideas. So,
    > thanks for posting these here.

    You're welcome. Research is the most interesting part of this whole business, if ya ask me.


  4. #4
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Tough proposals

    SD, h17 and das.

    Let?s have a look at these two options:

    1) (211111100-2) plus EoR?s for h17 and das (BJA3, page 522)

    Betting correlation = .7045

    Insurance correlation = .9428

    2) (444444444-9) plus EoR?s for h17 and das

    Betting correlation = .7572

    Insurance correlation = 1.0000

    Well, if your main purpose is to track aces in single-deck, while being comfortable handling a two-level count at the same time, don?t care too much for the low betting correlation (expect a moderate good playing efficiency for both counts), and your main objective is to harmonize the ace tracking abilities with the tens-density, then I would go with option two. You will always know in an exact manner, when these tens surpass the .3333 levels.

    ?..not beyond a motivated and disciplined intellect. :-)

    Sincerely

    Zenfighter

    P.S. Btw, Excel can?t print figures in the form of e.g. .2006 (20.06%) It tends to put a zero in front. Thus, there are no discrepancies between both ss figures. See how these are printed in Appendix D?s tables.


  5. #5
    Myooligan
    Guest

    Myooligan: Lots of possibilities

    The general method I use: Start by estimating the probabilities of the ace landing on my first card, dealers first card, my second card, dealers second card, and none of the above. I've come up with a corresponding set of EORs for each of these 5 situation (identical for player card 1 & 2; standard betting EORs for "none of the above"). From there I can produce "net EORs." For instance, in the case where you play three hands, and are certain that one of them will get the target ace, you're net EOR would be:

    .333 * EORs given ace in hand + .666 * Standard EOR

    In this situation, Hi-Opt II with no side count does very well at 97.7% correlation (quite a bit better than it handles any of the five situations individually, interestingly). But in the shoe games where the above formula might make sense, maybe you have such a high edge when the ace is coming that you're always heavily underbetting. In that case a negative count wouldn't make a difference anyway.

    But the same method yields a convenient 99% correlation with Zen on a single deck game, where underbetting isn't really an issue.

    So, for practical purposes, a count derived from the above method is probably the most useful application of the data.

    > ?..not beyond a motivated and disciplined intellect.
    > :-)


  6. #6
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: A few comments

    > So, thanks for posting these here.

    Yes, thanks indeed.

    I am a long way from being a giver in this thread, I'll only be a taker, but please continue and know that at least for me, this discussion will be appreciated.

    Thanks as always.

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