Redhook: BC, PE, and IC

[Redhook]

Comparing the BC, PE, and IC factors of the various counting systems...

If a counting system could be altered to improve one of these factors (by 5% say), which would most increase the win rate of the system? Which is the second most important? Is there a rule of thumb?

Redhook

[Cacarulo]

> Comparing the BC, PE, and IC factors of the various
> counting systems...

> If a counting system could be altered to improve one
> of these factors (by 5% say), which would most
> increase the win rate of the system? Which is the
> second most important? Is there a rule of thumb?

Unfortunately, there's no rule of thumb. You need to run sims and calculate the SCOREs.

Sincerely,
Cac

[Don Schlesinger]

> Comparing the BC, PE, and IC factors of the various
> counting systems...

> If a counting system could be altered to improve one
> of these factors (by 5% say), which would most
> increase the win rate of the system? Which is the
> second most important? Is there a rule of thumb?

> Redhook

The answer depends greatly on the spread you employ and the rules of the game. For shoe games with large spreads, I suppose BC is most important. For SD with small spreads, PE becomes important. I doubt if the correct answer would ever be IC.

Don

[Zenfighter]

While the SCORE method will answer your question in a completely satisfactory manner, you can probably get not too bad results with Griffin?s empirical formula, as per Chapter 4 from the TOB.

Let?s use the Hi-Opt I without the ace side count.

BC = .88
PE = .61

Units won per hand = [8(k ? 1) * BC + 5(k + 1)* PE] / 1000

Here k units are bet on ANY favourable deck, otherwise the wager is one.

1) SD with a 1 to 4 spread.

Uwph = (24* .88 + 25 * .61) / 1000 = 0.03637

Increasing a 5% the BC yields: BC = .92

While a 5% with the PE means: PE = .64

For the first case we get

Uwph = (24 * .92 + 25 * .61) / 1000 = 0.03733 (a 2.64% increase)

And for the second

Uwph = (24 * .88 + 25 * .64) / 1000 = 0.03712 (a 2.06% increase)

Increasing here the BC is a winner, but the margin will be wider when multiple-deck spreads are employed.

2) Multiple decks with a 1 to 16 spread.

Uwph = (120 * .88 + 85 * .61) / 1000 = 0.15745

Increasing a 5% the BC yields

Uwph = (120 * 92 + 85 *.61) / 1000 = 0.16225 (a 3.05% increase)

While increasing a 5% the PE

Uwph = (120 *.88 + 85 *.64) / 1000 = 0.16000 (an 1.62% increase)

Despite all the above simplified pocket calculations, one thing remains still clear, and that is, that selecting a point count system with a high betting correlation is of paramount importance for the multi-deck player. We can bet on this without any type of sims.

Hope this helps.

Zenfighter

[Redhook]