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Thread: Wolverine: SCORE vs Win Rate and s.d

  1. #14
    Wolverine
    Guest

    Wolverine: last piece

    Don,
    You haven't looked at my last post and already 3 people have checked it out. Anyway--last piece of info you need is 60% penetration (I went back and looked them over).

    At this point, with the "best" bet schedule I could assemble, I'm looking at a win rate of 1.709 units per hour, s.d. of 26.498 and a RoR of 14.2% spreading 1 to 6. The c-SCORE given is 41.61 for this game.

    I could get the RoR down to 11.3% but the win rate tanks to 1.31 per hour (s.d. of 21.923 and a c-SCORE of 35.69). Or I can get the win rate up to 1.91 per hour with a s.d. of 29.006 and c-SCORE of 43.44 but my RoR goes up to 16.2%. I am torn between these three bet schedules. Obviously, they are all very similar.

    Have a great Monday.
    Wolverine

  2. #15
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: last piece

    > I am torn between these three
    > bet schedules. Obviously, they are all very similar.

    The c-SCOREs (squares of the Sharpe ratios) are sort of telling you that, if you can accept the ROR of 16.2%, the last schedule is best. That is, there is enough increase in hourly e.v. to justify the concomitant increase in s.d.

    On the other hand, for your three schemes, one will have you losing the whole bank about once in seven trips, the other once in nine, and the latter, once in six. Another way to express this is to say that, for every 126 trips you take (a long time!!), you will either lose, on average, 18 banks, 14 banks, or 21 banks. So, only you can decide if the extra revenue is worth that extra risk.

    I still don't understand why the trip bank and the total BJ-playing bank are the same number. Normally, that doesn't make much sense.

    Don

  3. #16
    Wolverine
    Guest

    Wolverine: My entire bankroll

    > I still don't understand why the trip bank and the
    > total BJ-playing bank are the same number. Normally,
    > that doesn't make much sense.

    My entire bankroll is currently 40k. I play with my entire bankroll when I make a trip. It is replenishable (to a point), but prefer to minimize my RoR because of this issue rather than try to "grow" the bankroll with little regard to the risks. I'd be pretty happy if my blackjack "hobby" would start paying some dividends on my "investment" of 40k. In three trips this year, I've broken even twice and lost nearly 15k (since replaced). The last trip was my first attempt at index play. CVBJ has shown me that my index play is nearly perfect, so I will try again on my next trip. I just don't see the "big" wins I keep hearing about on this board from Card, Hollywood, bfb, etc...

    Thanks for your help Don. I'm leaning toward the 14.2% RoR at this point. I'd like to log some trip WINS of any kind before I start trying to flirt with larger RoR issues.

    This is why I asked some of the "psychology of blackjack" and "money management" questions back in late 2004. I have the basic skills, but have yet to MASTER something "else" to turn them into profits. That is why I am working so hard on CVCX, CVBJ, and visiting this site.


  4. #17
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: My entire bankroll

    How many hours do you consider a "trip"? I'm still not convinced that you're doing the ROR calculations correctly.

    You numbers seem to me to be more lifetime ROR values than trip (limited number of hours) RORs.

    Don

  5. #18
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: As I thought

    I just confirmed what I thought: It makes little sense for you to be taking your entire bankroll with you on a trip.

    What kind of trip ROR are you satisfied with, and how many hours do you play, per trip?

    Don

  6. #19
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Not to interrupt ..

    > I just don't see the "big" wins I keep hearing
    > about on this board from Card, Hollywood, bfb, etc ...

    CARD and BFB have been playing a long long time and use every trick in the book. They don't simply straight count deck after deck after deck.

    Hollywood, I imagine, has a huge black BR that overwhelms most any AC casino. Probably he is his own spotter and big player, spreading larger than life until they finally flat bet him or cut the deck to about 2 of 6.

    Good luck.

  7. #20
    Wolverine
    Guest

    Wolverine: No problem...happy to learn from everyone

    Thank you SunRunner, I appreciate your input. I look up to every one of the "vets" and enjoy gleaning information from everyone on the site. I realize those I mentioned by name use many tricks beyond counting, but I have to see the upside of things sooner or later! [I know, I actually don't have to....which is what is so darn depressing. :-( ]

    Don, again, reluctant to share, but so far, I guess I haven't totally ruined my identity...so here goes.

    I play numerous times a year in LV. Most are weekends which entail about 10 to 15 hours of play, however, I play almost exclusively heads-up and will play 2 hands some of the time, so I usually get 150+ hands an hour, rather than the "industry" norm of 100 hands. Some of the dealers are very quick and I'd say 200 hands per hour wouldn't be out of the question (especially if two hands start going). So, a typical weekend trip would be 1500 hands absolute minimum up to about 3000 maximum. On CVBJ, I can easily play 300 hands an hour (but that doesn't include a "real shuffle").

    I regularly take a "weeklong" 7 to 10 day trip and would guess that 40 hours of BJ would be a minimum for this situation, with the same type of hands per hour expected as stated above. I guess 5000 hands would be an average amount and if I got into a "major groove" playing (more hours & fast dealers), then 10,000 hands COULD happen, but that would be an absolute MAXIMUM before my head would explode and I'd have to give up BJ for life.

    I'll have to review and see if I answered all your questions...I got interrupted a few times writing this reply.


  8. #21
    Wolverine
    Guest

    Wolverine: Trip vs. entire bankroll

    Don,
    just reviewed your last two bankroll replies to check things over again.

    I can tell you that I have never dipped into the bottom half of that "bankroll" of 40k to play up to this point (knock wood). I can tell you that I managed to lose 11k in a weekend trip earlier this year. One store took me for almost HALF my entire bankroll (in less than 10 hours of play, I believe) and I managed to win back a decent amount at other stores to keep me out of the bottom half of my entire bankroll and make up the difference back to an 11k loss. The wins came in about 5 hours.

    In my previous "week long" adventures, I was a green chip player spreading $25 to $200 and almost always broke even to losing about $1,000 in a week. My bankroll was 10k then, and my absolute highest bankroll point reached was 12k. I lost $500, $500, and $1,000 the next 3 sessions and went home dead even with my 10k.

    Hope this little history lesson helps you to understand my perspective and what I am doing. I hate to say this, because it sounds so cliche. Money isn't the object. I make enough in real life, live confortably, and have my future taken care of. However, I'd be a fool to say that 40k isn't a LOT of money. Losing it is not the end of my world, but I'd seriously reconsider if blackjack is a hobby I can continue to AFFORD to dabble in. However, I enjoy the challenge, enjoy learning, and like to gamble. I might as well try to even/tilt the tables in my favor.

  9. #22
    bfbagain
    Guest

    bfbagain: Bankrolls

    I thought I'd weigh in here re: bankrolls. Don will more than likely, after reading that you may spend 7-10 days on a trip, will agree that having $40K with you is the right thing to do.

    I normally will have a minimum of $20K for a three to four day trip and there have been times that I needed more. So for a 7-10 trip betting black, I'd have at least $30K, with access to more immediately if I needed it.

    On a different topic, one of losing....been there, and done that. :-(

    I've had months where I was in the hole. I really never worry much about long periods of variance. What is the bummer, is the time required to play to make up the losses and move back into the black.

    You play this game long enough, and you will have long losing streaks. Its the nature of the beast. Anyone who tells you that they don't lose are not being truthful.

    For any responses, I'll probably take this up top, as this thread is moving off the page. :-)

    cheers
    bfb


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