AdvantageRay: New Cards

[NMSE]

> With all due respect, your "personal
> observation" has no mathematical
> validity.

> No, that's just not true.

> None whatsoever.

> Definitely the latter. Of course, in
> multi-deck new cards do have a house
> advantage -- on the first hand and every
> other, if you're not counting.

> No such (valid) references exist, because
> the phenomenon you describe doesn't exist.
> If you read that it does exist, the source
> is bogus.

> Don, What if you are counting in a 6d das s17 nosur? Who has the advantage on the first hand player or the house? Wouldn't depend on the cards on the table and what your actual hand consisted of?

[Don Schlesinger]

"Don, What if you are counting in a 6d das s17 nosur? Who has the advantage on the first hand player or the house? Wouldn't depend on the cards on the table and what your actual hand consisted of?

If you're playing alone, the house always has the advantage on the first hand of a 6-deck game. Counting doesn't matter. In the game you describe, the house edge is 0.40% off the top. Counting can't help you overcome that, for the first hand.

Don

[Jake {|:>)]

> No such (valid) references exist, because
> the phenomenon you describe doesn't exist.
> If you read that it does exist, the source
> is bogus.

I think Diaconis showed that there is some order preservation in strings of new cards. Also Peter Griffin P136-137 of TOB discusses riffling of new decks producing that effect in some instances. I think Wong did a new card wash study back in the early eighties and concluded that no reliable change in advantage could be identified. However you are correct in that neither claimed that this new card phenomena could consistently produce this increase in house advantage.

Another stats type person I know claims (no proof) that the new box order tends to group tens in higher than normal densities the impact of which is just like preferential shuffling; there aren't as many tenaces around when you get your doubling opportunities.

I do get an advantage out of them though. When the pit critter brings the cards in I roll my eyes and claim the cards are bad until they have been shuffled a few times. I have then sat through the whole shoe betting zip (unless a great count materializes) while I shuffle track it for the next shoe.

{|:>)
Jake