> I do use the updated count -considering all

> the cards lying on the table- and then

> decide whether to insure the hand or not.

> For me it's the same as any other CD play.

> T6vT and 97vT both have different indices

> and when we stand we expect the dealer to

> bust in order to win. Why I would then stand

> on one hand but hit on the other? See the

> analogy?

If you were dealt those two hands at the same time, you would not ever stand on the first one but then hit the second one -- each will play out exactly the same. Why should insurance be any different?

Let's look at what insurance really is: You get to place aside betwhich pays 2:1 if the dealer has a ten in the hole. If he does, then the money you lost on your hand is then paid back to you for winning the insurance betn You lose your initial bet if the dealer has a BJ regardless of insurance -- insurance is simply a side bet whose winning payout happens to be the same as the amount of your losing bet. If the dealer has a BJ less than 1 time in 3 that you insure, then you are losing money. A counter attempts to use his knowledge of the remaining cards to determine if this is a positive-EV bet to take. You are advocating that it will be a positive-EV bet on one of your hands, but negative-EV on another hand -- at the same time!

The thing is that in making your decision you are considering the composition of one hand, but only the total (count-wise) of the other hand. Then you reverse the situation. This could be compared to getting dealt A/4 and hitting to get A/5/6/3 (hard 15) and then trying to use a C-D index for T/5 to make your decision. That index would account for one less five in the pack, but it still could be improved if you could also account for the missing six.

And finally, I leave you with a puzzle: You are playing doubledeck and put out two bets with a RC of 7. You get dealt A/A on one hand, and T/T on the other. You are asked if you want insurance. There are exactly 52 cards remaining to be dealt/seen. The count has now fallen to 2. Your indices for 2D are .46 for A/A and 3.16 for T/T. What would you do to reconcile this large difference -- Does the insuranceside betyield positive-EV?

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