Last night I was playing a six deck game which was 5.5/6.0 penetration; H17; DOA; DAS; LS. I had two max bets out with less than 30 cards remaining in the shoe. On one hand I drew A,5 and the other a hard 14. The dealer has a ten up.
The true count was in the high twenties (can't remember exactly now) and I play the Uston APC. I surrended both hands.
My question is: should I have hit the soft 16?
Thanks!
> My question is: should I have hit the soft
> 16?
Yes, you should have hit the soft 16. The other decision was ok.
Sincerely,
Cacarulo
> My question is: should I have hit the soft
> 16?
For hi-lo, 4-deck, Wong gives +19 TC as the correct surrender index for A,5 v. 10. I don't know what the conversion factor is for the UAPC, so I'm not sure if you did the right thing or not.
Don
> For hi-lo, 4-deck, Wong gives +19 TC as the
> correct surrender index for A,5 v. 10. I
> don't know what the conversion factor is for
> the UAPC, so I'm not sure if you did the
> right thing or not.
The surrender index for UAPC is around +54 (full-deck conversion).
Sincerely,
Cacarulo
> The surrender index for UAPC is around +54
> (full-deck conversion).
> Sincerely,
> Cacarulo
The Uston APC true count is based on half decks--not full decks.
> The Uston APC true count is based on half
> decks--not full decks.
Right. So, about +27. Sounds like you were close but that hitting would have been better.
Don
It is usually a mistake to adlib indexes. If you are not sure what the right play is, play it according to your book.
Your index for surrounding A5 was probably infinite; i.e. "Never Surrender". I suggests ticking to that.
There are some exceptions: If you were getting a lot of heat because you were Surrendering, you might do this it because it looks really stupid. I am reluctant to do things like this without knowing their cost.
Second, if you hit you will have draw several cards, which may bring the cut card out a bit sooner. You may have surrendered in order to save one more juicy round.
If the last two things were part of your thinking (Even if this is wrong, I gert some cover and an extra round) then it wouldn't be so bad. It depends a little bit on much heat you were under.
Here is another consideration, inaccuracy of high true counts. Let us that the running count is 26, and you think there is half a deck left. Then your TC is 26. But suppose there were really 30 card unseen; then your true count is only 22. If you have forgotten about a card you didn't see, (because of a burn or the dealer hiding a card) your TC will be off. Can you really tell the difference between 281 cards in the discard tray, and 278?
My own view is that counters tend to make errors in estimating TC perfectly, and human nature causes them to inflate the TC rather than deflate it.
> Last night I was playing a six deck game
> which was 5.5/6.0 penetration; H17; DOA;
> DAS; LS. I had two max bets out with less
> than 30 cards remaining in the shoe. On one
> hand I drew A,5 and the other a hard 14. The
> dealer has a ten up.
> The true count was in the high twenties
> (can't remember exactly now) and I play the
> Uston APC. I surrended both hands.
> My question is: should I have hit the soft
> 16?
> Thanks!
> Right. So, about +27. Sounds like you were
> close but that hitting would have been
> better.
> Don
considering that the RA index may be many points lower than the ev +27. How many points lower will depend on betting schedule, etc.
But as the Masters have said, don't make a habit of this index guessing nonsense unless you are a seasoned pro with proven excelente on the fly calculation skilz
I had a play the other day.The count was plus 5.5-6 and dealer had an ace up.Playing 3 spots at anchor,I busted on one,surrendered 14 on the second, and had 2 9's on the 3rd[index #3 for splitting}I had already lost the insurance and a bust,2 1/2 max bets.Some tens came out with the other players also so I figure the count dropped to maybe 5.The cut card was coming out any card so I stayed,instead of splitting, and surrendered the 14,just shy of my index #6.I figured it had to be the right move.Some sort of riskaverse plus giving a little for a greater advantage next round play.Playing $hit penetration I usually make these surrender moves when they just fall short of the #'s to get that extra round.I called the cut card right only to see a dealer BJ.Willi.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Bookmarks