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Thread: Cacarulo: Final Thoughts about the Trilogy

  1. #1
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Final Thoughts about the Trilogy

    Conditions: 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,C22,5000 million rounds,heads up.
    Indices were calculated for each level of pen.

    I) Penetration = 4/6

    1) Red Seven (counting R7's as +1 & B7's as 0) in RC mode

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.352 24.283 13.53 476540 1.45 2.10 1676.29 1.691 5.966 1.000
    1 - 8 1.153 38.333 13.53 110471 3.01 9.05 1274.06 2.228 7.849 1.000
    1 - 12 1.843 50.657 13.53 75539 3.64 13.24 1392.28 2.662 7.182 1.000
    1 - 16 2.459 61.705 13.53 62949 3.99 15.89 1548.17 3.040 6.459 1.000
    1 - 20 3.048 72.408 13.53 56446 4.21 17.72 1720.29 3.403 5.813 1.000


    2) K-O

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.303 23.177 13.53 586192 1.31 1.71 1774.47 1.611 5.635 1.000
    1 - 8 1.063 36.287 13.53 116463 2.93 8.59 1238.36 2.084 8.075 1.000
    1 - 12 1.720 47.881 13.53 77457 3.59 12.91 1332.58 2.467 7.504 1.000
    1 - 16 2.315 58.472 13.53 63806 3.96 15.67 1477.01 2.806 6.770 1.000
    1 - 20 2.866 68.346 13.53 56865 4.19 17.59 1629.81 3.119 6.136 1.000


    3) Hi-Lo

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.366 25.209 13.53 474568 1.45 2.11 1736.61 1.746 5.758 1.000
    1 - 8 1.134 38.154 13.53 113166 2.97 8.84 1283.50 2.250 7.791 1.000
    1 - 12 1.783 49.546 13.53 77219 3.60 12.95 1376.80 2.653 7.263 1.000
    1 - 16 2.414 61.076 13.53 64023 3.95 15.62 1545.39 3.052 6.471 1.000
    1 - 20 2.981 71.388 13.53 57367 4.18 17.43 1709.83 3.405 5.849 1.000


    4) Red Seven (counting all 7's as 0.5) in RC mode (Level-2 system)

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.367 24.218 13.53 435673 1.52 2.30 1598.55 1.694 6.256 1.000
    1 - 8 1.182 38.233 13.53 104615 3.09 9.56 1236.63 2.225 8.087 1.000
    1 - 12 1.881 50.469 13.53 71963 3.73 13.90 1353.87 2.660 7.386 1.000
    1 - 16 2.518 61.732 13.53 60111 4.08 16.64 1513.50 3.050 6.607 1.000
    1 - 20 3.113 72.340 13.53 53991 4.30 18.52 1680.90 3.415 5.949 1.000


    II) Penetration = 5/6

    1) Red Seven (counting R7's as +1 & B7's as 0) in RC mode

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.736 23.818 13.53 104688 3.09 9.55 770.66 1.664 12.976 1.000
    1 - 8 1.895 37.559 13.53 39301 5.04 25.45 744.59 2.193 13.430 1.000
    1 - 12 2.888 49.611 13.53 29507 5.82 33.89 852.19 2.626 11.734 1.000
    1 - 16 3.833 61.403 13.53 25663 6.24 38.97 983.66 3.044 10.166 1.000
    1 - 20 4.744 72.916 13.53 23621 6.51 42.34 1120.64 3.450 8.923 1.000


    2) K-O

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.651 22.192 13.53 116043 2.94 8.62 755.97 1.548 13.228 1.000
    1 - 8 1.728 34.199 13.53 39179 5.05 25.52 676.93 1.966 14.773 1.000
    1 - 12 2.664 45.066 13.53 28621 5.91 34.94 762.41 2.316 13.116 1.000
    1 - 16 3.531 55.353 13.53 24575 6.38 40.69 867.73 2.642 11.524 1.000
    1 - 20 4.352 65.203 13.53 22446 6.67 44.55 976.87 2.950 10.237 1.000


    3) Hi-Lo

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.730 23.549 13.53 104045 3.10 9.61 759.58 1.673 13.165 1.000
    1 - 8 1.840 36.199 13.53 38723 5.08 25.83 712.31 2.144 14.039 1.000
    1 - 12 2.746 46.528 13.53 28701 5.90 34.84 788.24 2.500 12.687 1.000
    1 - 16 3.551 55.848 13.53 24737 6.36 40.43 878.37 2.816 11.385 1.000
    1 - 20 4.381 65.865 13.53 22603 6.65 44.24 990.23 3.159 10.099 1.000


    4) Red Seven (counting all 7's as 0.5) in RC mode (Level-2 system)

     play-all | rounds played = 100.00% 
    spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di SCORE ekb avb unit kelly
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 - 4 0.759 23.817 13.53 98370 3.19 10.17 747.00 1.664 13.387 1.000
    1 - 8 1.932 37.423 13.53 37520 5.16 26.65 724.88 2.189 13.795 1.000
    1 - 12 2.948 49.556 13.53 28267 5.95 35.38 833.16 2.628 12.002 1.000
    1 - 16 3.904 61.244 13.53 24615 6.37 40.63 960.85 3.044 10.407 1.000
    1 - 20 4.817 72.528 13.53 22671 6.64 44.11 1092.02 3.445 9.157 1.000


    We can draw some interesting conclusions from these sims:

    1) R7 does a pretty good job after all with mediocre pens. The problem is that nobody should play with pens smaller than 4.5/6
    2) K-O is still better than Hi-Lo
    3) D-R7 still outperforms R7 by more than 4%
    4) Note that K-O with good pen and good spread can do better than D-R7.

    Hope you enjoy the sims!

    Sincerely,
    Cac

    PS: I'll leave to Norm the analysis of intermediate penetrations or other rules

  2. #2
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Fantastic

    One surprising result is that D-R7 doesn't perform better at 5/6. It is afterall a level-2 strategy.

  3. #3
    GeoC
    Guest

    GeoC: well done

    I believe this is the first complete study ever done on this topic.

  4. #4
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Nice work ..

    .. am not around much anymore but just wanted to say, again, thanks for the really nice work you do.

    And while I'm here, same to all the rest who maintain this site.

  5. #5
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: Nice work ..

    > .. am not around much anymore

    Why??

    > but just wanted to say,
    > again, thanks for the really nice work you do.

    You're very welcome!

    > And while I'm here, same to all the rest who maintain
    > this site.

    I think we all try to do the best that we can.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  6. #6
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: Nice work ..

    > Why??

    Nothing sinister .. work has and will continue to invade my private life for the short term. I have time to read, not much time to post.

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