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Thread: BV: 1st Time AP, fun trip to casino, thanks + 2??s

  1. #1
    BV
    Guest

    BV: 1st Time AP, fun trip to casino, thanks + 2??s

    Hello everyone, 1st time poster and player.

    Thanks to Don, Parker and all the contibutors here. BJA3 has been a great help and a lot of fun to read. After about 9 months of study and practice I nervously made the 35 mile trip to the only local Indian casino with decent game (6D, h17, das, da2, ls) took $300 bucks out of the ATM with the goal of losing less than half. Got lucky with some very high counts early, and got to play a couple dozen hands max betting $50.

    Made about $150, just like the book promised Only prior BJ experience was losing 60 bucks in Vegas with my brother and his alcoholic friends from the East Coast. This time was much more fun - it helps to know what real BS is, that's for sure.

    I also realized I have a long way to go with counting speed despite all the practice; missed the opportunity to take insurance at a TC of +5 'cause I had just looked up from the cards as the dealer raced by all six of us at the table in about .4 seconds. Of course she had the natural.

    Anyway now for the questions:

    1. First one is pretty much basic statistics, but I can't work it out myself: How do I figure out my standard deviation in $$'s for my own betting schedule and number of hands? BJA3 gives me EV's and standard deviation for various games and counts. Say I'm backcounting the game ($25 min table) in table 10.68 (pg.249) of BJA3 playing only TC +2 and higher; Betting $25 at TC 2-4 and $50 at TC>4. How do I then calculate the SDEV for 1,000 hands observed. 5,000?

    I know this isn't anything like optimum betting but I'm not terribly confident in my skill yet and the idea of dropping $1000 in an hour is not appealing. a win rate of <$10/hour doesn't bother me right now.

    2. Software recommendation for teaching me indexes? I'm guessing Casino Verite. Will this also help with setting up betting schedules or do I need another program for that.

    Thanks much and happy playing,
    bv

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: 1st Time AP, fun trip to casino, thanks + 2??s

    > Made about $150, just like the book promised
    >

    Remind me what page that was on! :-)

    > 1. First one is pretty much basic
    > statistics, but I can't work it out myself:
    > How do I figure out my standard deviation in
    > $$'s for my own betting schedule and number
    > of hands? BJA3 gives me EV's and standard
    > deviation for various games and counts. Say
    > I'm backcounting the game ($25 min table) in
    > table 10.68 (pg.249) of BJA3 playing only TC
    > +2 and higher; Betting $25 at TC 2-4 and $50
    > at TC>4. How do I then calculate the SDEV
    > for 1,000 hands observed. 5,000?

    A piece of software like CVCX or BJRM will do it for you in a second. If you need to figure it out the long way, use the methodology in BJA3, p. 20, but use the e.v.s and line-by-line variances (squares of the listed s.d.s) from the appropriate chapter 10 chart.

    > I know this isn't anything like optimum
    > betting but I'm not terribly confident in my
    > skill yet and the idea of dropping $1000 in
    > an hour is not appealing.

    Isn't now, never will be. But, you can't pick it up if you don't lay it down. :-)

    >a win rate of $10/hour doesn't bother me right now.

    You have to be comfortable with what you're doing. Don't overextend.

    2.
    > Software recommendation for teaching me
    > indexes? I'm guessing Casino Verite. Will
    > this also help with setting up betting
    > schedules or do I need another program for
    > that.

    CV will do it all. You should own that and BJRM.

    Don

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