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Thread: El Poet: Cover Betting

  1. #1
    El Poet
    Guest

    El Poet: Cover Betting

    Hi! Is any Windows sim package commercially available with extensive cover betting input? It can be rules based or matrix, but has to handle cover progressions more than CVD's rules will. Thank you.

  2. #2
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Cover Betting

    CVData handles extremely complex cover betting. What are you looking for?

  3. #3
    El Poet
    Guest

    El Poet: Re: Cover Betting

    > CVData handles extremely complex cover
    > betting. What are you looking for?
    Hi Norm, I just bought your product (the whole set of them) and am looking forward to using it. I am trying to reduce the cost of my betting cover. In 4.5-5/6 Strip with HiLow No side, The betting cover is supposed to look like a positive progression, but has subtle skips. In its most complex use, the unit bets currently go like this (w=wins; l=losses):
    <1 wwwwwwww=12224448 etc llllllll=11121111
    1-3 w=2 4 4 8 8 12 12 16 16 etc. l=222422222 etc.
    3-5 w=4 4 8 12 12 16 20 20 etc. l=222422222 etc.
    >5 w=4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 etc. l=444844444 etc.
    Please don't laugh too hard. I employ other camo and make important exceptions to the above, such as don't jump the full amount when moving up the four rows unless the table has enough paint anyway, and don't drop after a win even with the count moving down a level unless somehow there's enough disruption or delay. So you can see I interested in understanding a complex set of variables. Even in my simplest use, it has a 2 or 3 row matrix and w progressions like 112244 vs 11248. During the 70-80-early90s, I was never barred even with big success. After several years (raising a family etc.) I'm coming back I find the terrible conditions and doubt this will work anymore. FYI, I'm also upgrading my count system if necessary. Your analysis and guidance would be much appreciated!

  4. #4
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Cover Betting

    If you win four hands at a TC below 1 you will be bet 8. What if you win that hand and the count goes to 6?

  5. #5
    El Poet
    Guest

    El Poet: Re: Cover Betting

    > If you win four hands at a TC below 1 you
    > will be bet 8. What if you win that hand and
    > the count goes to 6?
    I jump to 20. Actually 8 would be at win 7. After four winning hands I'm at 4, if the count went to 6, I'd go to 12.

  6. #6
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Cover Betting

    > I jump to 20. Actually 8 would be at win 7.
    > After four winning hands I'm at 4, if the
    > count went to 6, I'd go to 12.

    Why wouldn't you jump to 24? That's the fifth win at >5.

  7. #7
    El Poet
    Guest

    El Poet: Re: Cover Betting

    > Why wouldn't you jump to 24? That's the
    > fifth win at >5.
    As I mentioned it's an exception, which is designed to avoid heat. What we're saying is that the round just was practically all low cards, it's deep in a shoe, and I'm trying to get as much as possible out. I won a say $20 bet, and can get away with $60, but not $120 - not for long.

  8. #8
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Cover Betting

    > As I mentioned it's an exception, which is
    > designed to avoid heat. What we're saying is
    > that the round just was practically all low
    > cards, it's deep in a shoe, and I'm trying
    > to get as much as possible out. I won a say
    > $20 bet, and can get away with $60, but not
    > $120 - not for long.

    I need a better description then. Simming a complex betting scheme is not difficult. What is difficult is coming up with a precise method of describing a complex betting scheme to a general purpose simulator. In other words, it's really hard to describe something to a computer that you have trouble precisely describing to a human

  9. #9
    El Poet
    Guest

    El Poet: Re: Cover Betting

    > I need a better description then. Simming a
    > complex betting scheme is not difficult.
    > What is difficult is coming up with a
    > precise method of describing a complex
    > betting scheme to a general purpose
    > simulator. In other words, it's really hard
    > to describe something to a computer that you
    > have trouble precisely describing to a
    > human
    Amen brother. There is a defined set of rules here, but I may have thought of a short cut to my answer. The progression per se is worthless by definition mathmatically, so could we calculate an average bet at each count based on the frequencies * length of runs. I think I saw a stat on that as something like 2.3. Do you know? We could just put one player in like that and subtract from a optimal player. Am I on to something here that would inform me of how much of a cost & risk this crazy cover may actually be? I would be glad to describe the "rules" if you want to hang in there with me. I also have been inspecting SBA 5.5 screen shots, but cannot tell if "# hands" will control these sequences. Thanks man!

  10. #10
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Cover Betting

    You won't get the right standard deviations by that method. CVData (and CVBJ V3) can use a 3D matrix with count vs. previous bet vs. previous last hand status. What it cannot do is look back two hands in determining a bet. So you cannot repeat a bet within a count once and then not repeat it after that. What you would need to do is run two sims - something that is slightly less aggressive and something slightly more aggressive. The correct answers would be somewhere between the two sims; and my guess is that the two sims would provide close results.

    The reason I'm asking the questions is, I'm wondering if it might be worth it to add the capability of looking back two hands in the next release. It would not be difficult to add to the sim engines without impacting speed. The hardest part would be compatibility between old and new strategy definitions.


  11. #11
    El Poet
    Guest

    El Poet: Re: Cover Betting

    > You won't get the right standard deviations
    > by that method. CVData (and CVBJ V3) can use
    > a 3D matrix with count vs. previous bet vs.
    > previous last hand status. What it cannot do
    > is look back two hands in determining a bet.
    > So you cannot repeat a bet within a count
    > once and then not repeat it after that. What
    > you would need to do is run two sims -
    > something that is slightly less aggressive
    > and something slightly more aggressive. The
    > correct answers would be somewhere between
    > the two sims; and my guess is that the two
    > sims would provide close results.

    > The reason I'm asking the questions is, I'm
    > wondering if it might be worth it to add the
    > capability of looking back two hands in the
    > next release. It would not be difficult to
    > add to the sim engines without impacting
    > speed. The hardest part would be
    > compatibility between old and new strategy
    > definitions.

    This seems like a sensible and interesting answer. I'll try that.
    The idea of adding the look back is well justified in my mind. There are numerous progression books whose distribution probably rivals legitimate advantage publications, sadly. I even studied the issue seriously. You know Cordoza, Dahl, Thomason. They all use stretch step patterns. The point is I see lots of this type of play and have to believe that some of it is cover like mine. Am I understanding your question about look back correctly? Thank you!

  12. #12
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Cover Betting

    > Am I understanding
    > your question about look back correctly?
    > Thank you!

    Yes. I deliberately made it difficult to test pure progression schemes as I don't want those users. But, progression acts as cover is certainly a legitimate area of study.

  13. #13
    El Poet
    Guest

    El Poet: Re: Cover Betting

    > Yes. I deliberately made it difficult to
    > test pure progression schemes as I don't
    > want those users. But, progression acts as
    > cover is certainly a legitimate area of
    > study.
    Okay I'm clearing 100 GB and watching the mailbox (Just kidding everyone - 50 GB)

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