David Spence: Ace sequencing

[David Spence]

Can anyone recommend a good source for detailed information on ace sequencing, cutting to aces, "breaking the dealer" (steering a 10 to the dealer for his third card), and other advanced techniques described in Busting Vegas?

It seems very possible that I'll try these techniques only to realize I can't perform them effectively, and that I'll stick with traditional card counting, so I'd rather not invest in the $160 Blackjack Science advanced techniques DVD. A recommendation for another source that focuses on the same techniques would be greatly appreciated.

David Spence

[Don Schlesinger]

There's only one book written on the subject and that's David McDowell's "Blackjack Ace Prediction."

Don

[Don Schlesinger]

Also, Rick Blaine has a short study on the topic in his "Blackjack Blueprint."

Don

[David Spence]

> There's only one book written on the subject and
> that's David McDowell's "Blackjack Ace
> Prediction."

Thanks for the recommendation. I've read mixed reviews of that book, but if it's the only choice...

Do you have any opinions on Snyder's Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook or David Morse's Blackjack Reality?

David Spence

[Don Schlesinger]

> Thanks for the recommendation. I've read mixed reviews
> of that book, but if it's the only choice...

> Do you have any opinions on Snyder's Shuffle Tracker's
> Cookbook or David Morse's Blackjack Reality?

Haven't read either.

Don

[Bettie]

> Do you have any opinions on Snyder's Shuffle Tracker's
> Cookbook or David Morse's Blackjack Reality?

General opinions or as those books relate specifically to ace sequencing? In general, I think that Snyder's book is the best (of maybe three) available on the topic of STing, but he does leave out quite a bit of info.

We haven't sold Morse's book in years, and I don't remember much about it. He came to our Halloween party last year and I recall him telling me that he has a website up where you can learn about the topics in the book (I believe the book is out of print now, though it wasn't an actual trade paperback to begin with). That site is Learn21.com.

You can see his Division of Gaming Enforcement AC ban info at the link below.

Bettie

Exclusion List - David Morse

[David Spence]

Thanks for the information and interesting links--I really appreciate it. Reading about the other banned players on that site was pretty entertaining.

I think I'm going try to tackle McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction, despite its mixed reviews. Given the topic's apparent complexity, I might be back here with more questions in the near future, though I'd understand if some of the advanced techniques were better kept unshared.

David

[Norm Wattenberger]

Some of the heavily critical reviews of McDowell's book were written by a person that hadn't bothered to read it. (No kidding.) It's worth reading; but the strategy is probably too simple. Rick Blaine's book only has 19 pages on location play (and another 18 on zone tracking.) But it's the part that is missing in McDowell's book. As Bettie said, ST Cookbook is probably the best source on tracking. But, purposely leaves out the important stuff.

[David Spence]

As often happens when one reads a book on a subject about which he knows little, I think I've found a mistake in McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction. Also, as is often the case, I'm probably the one who is mistaken. So, if nothing else, I'm looking for clarification regarding one of McDowell's claims.

McDowell states "if a small group of cards is known to contain an ace, simply knowing its suit increases the probability of one or more additional random aces in the group." The effect is not subtle, resulting in over a twofold increase in the probability of at least one additional random ace in a group of four cards.

I'm aware of the effect of conditional probabilities. That is, I understand that an answer of "yes" to, "Is there an ace of clubs in these four cards?" results in a greater number of expected aces than an answer of "yes" to, "Is there any ace in these four cards?"

However, in the case described by McDowell, the only difference is that the player remembers which ace is expected. It's the same ace, and the same group of four cards, whether the ace's suit is remembered or not. In other words, one would not expect the group of four cards to change spontaneously if the player suddenly forgets or remembers the suit of the predicted ace.

Further, the remembered ace is not being used as a key card for subsequent aces. Thus, knowing the suit of the expected ace does not result in a decreased false key percentage for subsequent aces; additional aces are random and unkeyed.

Any clarification on this matter would be greatly appreciated, and, as you might be able to tell from this post's timestamp, allow me to sleep at night :-)

David Spence