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Thread: Cacarulo: The HALVES vs ZEN dispute

  1. #11
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: ZEN Report II

     
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * S T A T I S T I C A L B L A C K J A C K A N A L Y Z E R *
    * Version 5.52, 1995-2003 *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


    ************************************************** **************************

    Simulation started on (MM/DD/YY): 03-16-2005 at 12:47:52
    Simulation finished on (MM/DD/YY): 03-16-2005 at 15:04:37
    Random seed = 1234567890


    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * R U L E S & C O N D I T I O N S *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    6 decks

    Shufflepoint 260 cards, (83.33% penetration)

    Face up game

    Head on game

    System used is ZEN with indices table zen2

    SBA floors when calculating the true count
    Remaining decks estimated exactly for true count conversion
    SBA divides running count by the number of 1/2 decks remaining

    American rules - hole card game

    Surrender is not allowed

    Dealer stands on all 17

    Doubling is allowed on any two cards

    Doubling is allowed after splitting

    Hand can be split 3 times, up to 4 hands

    No resplit of aces

    Only one card to split aces

    Different tens can be split

    Insurance is 1 half of a bet

    Predefined variables:
    INSURANCE = 3 Buy insurance if true count >= INSURANCE
    H7710 = 99 Hit 7,7 versus dealer's 10 if true count < H7710

    No user defined variables


    No leaving the shoe at any count

    Betting units are: 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

    For corresponding AC: -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

    Num. of hands played: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

    Player's bankroll is 100

    Aim bankroll is 200


    ************************************************** **************************


    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * S I M U L A T I O N R E S U L T S *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COUNT STATISTICS (PRIMARY):


    TC PERCEN AC PERCEN ST. ERR. IBA ST. ERR. SDROUND ACTION

    -25 0.0000 -25 0.00000 0.000000 -8.182 13.8398 1.4515 1.4636
    -24 0.0000 -24 0.00000 0.000000 -20.000 8.2368 1.2627 1.3277
    -23 0.0000 -23 0.00001 0.000000 -20.000 5.4602 1.3025 1.2917
    -22 0.0000 -22 0.00002 0.000000 -16.414 3.2850 1.3336 1.3004
    -21 0.0000 -21 0.00004 0.000001 -21.404 2.0039 1.3209 1.2923
    -20 0.0001 -20 0.00011 0.000001 -17.659 1.2462 1.3071 1.2845
    -19 0.0003 -19 0.00026 0.000002 -16.763 0.8120 1.3001 1.2727
    -18 0.0006 -18 0.00063 0.000003 -14.941 0.5120 1.2885 1.2623
    -17 0.0013 -17 0.00132 0.000004 -14.894 0.3526 1.2811 1.2546
    -16 0.0029 -16 0.00288 0.000005 -12.884 0.2370 1.2727 1.2449
    -15 0.0059 -15 0.00585 0.000008 -11.393 0.1651 1.2631 1.2365
    -14 0.0106 -14 0.01059 0.000010 -10.617 0.1219 1.2543 1.2284
    -13 0.0248 -13 0.02483 0.000016 -9.345 0.0790 1.2455 1.2195
    -12 0.0438 -12 0.04378 0.000021 -8.326 0.0591 1.2365 1.2106
    -11 0.0790 -11 0.07905 0.000028 -7.432 0.0437 1.2275 1.2023
    -10 0.1422 -10 0.14222 0.000038 -6.485 0.0323 1.2197 1.1949
    -9 0.2512 -9 0.25119 0.000050 -5.625 0.0242 1.2117 1.1872
    -8 0.4347 -8 0.43470 0.000066 -4.862 0.0183 1.2036 1.1797
    -7 0.7361 -7 0.73607 0.000085 -4.117 0.0139 1.1957 1.1724
    -6 1.2661 -6 1.26612 0.000112 -3.431 0.0106 1.1884 1.1655
    -5 2.1314 -5 2.13144 0.000144 -2.798 0.0081 1.1812 1.1588
    -4 3.7150 -4 3.71499 0.000189 -2.198 0.0061 1.1742 1.1523
    -3 6.4992 -3 6.49919 0.000247 -1.652 0.0046 1.1676 1.1460
    -2 11.9588 -2 11.95877 0.000324 -1.127 0.0034 1.1619 1.1399
    -1 20.6934 -1 20.69340 0.000405 -0.616 0.0025 1.1568 1.1343
    0 25.5236 0 25.52357 0.000436 -0.119 0.0023 1.1544 1.1310
    1 11.5053 1 11.50530 0.000319 0.545 0.0034 1.1566 1.1317
    2 6.3590 2 6.35905 0.000244 1.149 0.0046 1.1566 1.1354
    3 3.5913 3 3.59132 0.000186 1.844 0.0061 1.1624 1.1633
    4 2.0963 4 2.09628 0.000143 2.563 0.0081 1.1657 1.1817
    5 1.2192 5 1.21924 0.000110 3.283 0.0107 1.1809 1.1964
    6 0.7273 6 0.72733 0.000085 4.057 0.0138 1.1801 1.1954
    7 0.4203 7 0.42026 0.000065 4.818 0.0181 1.1748 1.1917
    8 0.2503 8 0.25029 0.000050 5.481 0.0234 1.1696 1.1881
    9 0.1386 9 0.13863 0.000037 6.253 0.0313 1.1640 1.1844
    10 0.0798 10 0.07979 0.000028 6.849 0.0410 1.1592 1.1810
    11 0.0433 11 0.04333 0.000021 7.506 0.0554 1.1539 1.1776
    12 0.0223 12 0.02230 0.000015 8.005 0.0770 1.1494 1.1745
    13 0.0139 13 0.01395 0.000012 8.668 0.0970 1.1450 1.1717
    14 0.0062 14 0.00619 0.000008 9.236 0.1446 1.1376 1.1676
    15 0.0030 15 0.00302 0.000005 10.026 0.2065 1.1352 1.1665
    16 0.0015 16 0.00145 0.000004 10.123 0.2961 1.1276 1.1606
    17 0.0007 17 0.00071 0.000003 10.781 0.4227 1.1246 1.1590
    18 0.0003 18 0.00030 0.000002 11.509 0.6498 1.1186 1.1575
    19 0.0001 19 0.00013 0.000001 13.470 0.9873 1.1274 1.1631
    20 0.0001 20 0.00005 0.000001 10.884 1.4782 1.0837 1.1427
    21 0.0000 21 0.00002 0.000000 11.155 2.4097 1.0895 1.1448
    22 0.0000 22 0.00001 0.000000 11.505 3.8769 1.0993 1.1331
    23 0.0000 23 0.00000 0.000000 18.257 6.1770 1.0770 1.1480
    24 0.0000 24 0.00000 0.000000 16.038 10.5801 1.0893 1.0943
    25 0.0000 25 0.00000 0.000000 20.000 12.6396 1.0268 1.1212

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PRIMARY STATISTICS:


    Initial bet advantage (IBA):-0.29307%, St. Err. 0.001161%

    Total bets advantage (TBA): -0.25690%

    SCORE: 0.00

    Risk of Ruin: 100%

    Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is -293.07, with estim. std. 367.10

    Average st. dev. per round: 1.16087

    Av. std. per round per unit: 1.16087

    Average bet per round: 1.00000

    Average bet total: 1.14082

    Insurance contribution: 0.02324%
    Insurance contrib. to TBA: 0.02118%

    Number of sessions won: 531116
    Number of sessions lost: 827633
    Total number of sessions: 1358749
    Percentage of sessions won: 39.0886%, St. Err. 0.04186%
    Surplus bank: 344490

    Number of shoes played: 208638075

    Number of rounds played: 10000000021

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SECONDARY STATISTICS:


    AC BLJACK PUSH HDOUBL SDOUBL SPLIT SURREN INSUR INSADV ACDIST

    -10 2.789 9.310 12.959 2.323 3.519 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.149
    -9 2.981 9.289 12.407 2.259 3.415 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.261
    -8 3.174 9.266 11.849 2.199 3.324 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.450
    -7 3.367 9.237 11.324 2.133 3.226 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.756
    -6 3.566 9.227 10.825 2.070 3.137 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.294
    -5 3.774 9.211 10.339 2.004 3.052 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.165
    -4 3.983 9.202 9.869 1.938 2.970 0.000 0.000 0.000 3.752
    -3 4.198 9.183 9.416 1.871 2.889 0.000 0.000 0.000 6.529
    -2 4.419 9.118 8.978 1.804 2.811 0.000 0.000 0.000 11.949
    -1 4.633 9.050 8.584 1.739 2.738 0.000 0.000 0.000 20.575
    0 4.827 8.916 8.374 1.702 2.674 0.000 0.000 0.000 25.304
    1 5.067 8.902 8.428 1.799 2.598 0.000 0.012 1.286 11.414
    2 5.315 9.004 8.584 1.734 2.540 0.000 0.792 2.225 6.329
    3 5.683 9.242 9.430 1.702 2.528 0.000 5.541 3.255 3.662
    4 5.998 9.278 9.028 1.630 3.635 0.000 8.155 5.374 2.171
    5 6.264 9.285 8.430 1.535 5.322 0.000 8.688 8.051 1.279
    6 6.526 9.364 7.968 1.458 5.663 0.000 8.824 10.981 0.762
    7 6.788 9.466 7.542 1.379 5.746 0.000 8.935 14.053 0.439
    8 7.061 9.598 7.124 1.311 5.814 0.000 9.058 17.138 0.261
    9 7.327 9.744 6.748 1.245 5.855 0.000 9.156 20.327 0.144
    10 7.614 9.888 6.364 1.172 5.920 0.000 9.264 22.948 0.083


    InsTC INSUR INSADV ST. ERR.

    3 7.338 2.794 0.014
    4 7.344 5.738 0.018
    5 7.354 8.734 0.024
    6 7.371 11.684 0.030
    7 7.369 14.824 0.040
    8 7.366 17.855 0.052
    9 7.362 20.972 0.069
    10 7.349 23.882 0.090



    CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE:

    Frequency of blackjack: 4.744%

    Frequency of pushing: 9.021%

    Frequency of hard doubling: 8.778%

    Frequency of soft doubling: 1.760%

    Frequency of splitting: 2.909%

    Frequency of insurance: 0.658%
    Insurance advantage: 7.070%



    CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS:

    AC Correlation Coef.

    -10 N/A
    -9 N/A
    -8 N/A
    -7 N/A
    -6 N/A
    -5 N/A
    -4 N/A
    -3 N/A
    -2 N/A
    -1 N/A
    0 N/A
    1 N/A
    2 N/A
    3 N/A
    4 N/A
    5 N/A
    6 N/A
    7 N/A
    8 N/A
    9 N/A
    10 N/A


    D E A L E R'S S T A T I S T I C S

    Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ Bust

    2 13.9724 13.4446 13.0057 12.4035 11.8386 -- 35.3350
    3 13.4387 13.0618 12.5262 12.0822 11.4939 -- 37.3972
    4 13.0685 12.4154 12.1321 11.6457 11.1862 -- 39.5521
    5 12.1977 12.2563 11.7643 11.1822 10.7934 -- 41.8062
    6 16.5785 10.6314 10.6514 10.1593 9.7295 -- 42.2500
    7 36.8974 13.8030 7.8517 7.8736 7.3843 -- 26.1900
    8 12.8971 35.9774 12.8775 6.9278 6.9522 -- 24.3680
    9 12.0368 11.7394 35.1628 12.0428 6.0927 -- 22.9255
    10 11.1981 11.1720 11.1966 33.9772 3.4857 7.7156 21.2548
    ace 13.0104 13.0901 13.0660 13.0908 5.3560 30.8421 11.5446


    Distribution of the final number of cards in Dealer's hand:

    Cards: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    Freq.: 45.4720 36.3746 14.8357 2.9487 0.3427 0.0251 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000


    Distribution of cards drawn to Dealer's initial two cards:

    Card: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ace
    Freq.: 7.6410 7.6481 7.6482 7.6547 7.6659 7.6939 7.7051 7.7100 30.9215 7.7116

  2. #12
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: HALVES Report I

     

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * S T A T I S T I C A L B L A C K J A C K A N A L Y Z E R *
    * Version 5.52, 1995-2003 *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


    ************************************************** **************************

    Simulation started on (MM/DD/YY): 03-15-2005 at 22:15:34
    Simulation finished on (MM/DD/YY): 03-16-2005 at 1:00:44
    Random seed = 1234567890


    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * R U L E S & C O N D I T I O N S *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    6 decks

    Shufflepoint 260 cards, (83.33% penetration)

    Face up game

    Head on game

    System used is HALVES with indices table halves_c22

    SBA floors when calculating the true count
    Remaining decks estimated exactly for true count conversion

    American rules - hole card game

    Surrender is not allowed

    Dealer stands on all 17

    Doubling is allowed on any two cards

    Doubling is allowed after splitting

    Hand can be split 3 times, up to 4 hands

    No resplit of aces

    Only one card to split aces

    Different tens can be split

    Insurance is 1 half of a bet

    Predefined variables:
    INSURANCE = 7 Buy insurance if true count >= INSURANCE
    H7710 = 99 Hit 7,7 versus dealer's 10 if true count < H7710

    No user defined variables


    No leaving the shoe at any count

    Betting units are: 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

    For corresponding AC: -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

    Num. of hands played: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

    Player's bankroll is 100

    Aim bankroll is 200


    ************************************************** **************************


    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * S I M U L A T I O N R E S U L T S *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COUNT STATISTICS (PRIMARY):


    TC PERCEN AC PERCEN ST. ERR. IBA ST. ERR. SDROUND ACTION

    -25 0.1533 -25 0.15330 0.000039 -8.810 0.0315 1.2336 1.2085
    -24 0.0467 -24 0.04668 0.000022 -7.131 0.0564 1.2195 1.1951
    -23 0.0575 -23 0.05747 0.000024 -6.640 0.0507 1.2161 1.1918
    -22 0.0724 -22 0.07240 0.000027 -6.286 0.0451 1.2131 1.1890
    -21 0.0934 -21 0.09344 0.000031 -5.999 0.0396 1.2098 1.1859
    -20 0.1195 -20 0.11948 0.000035 -5.617 0.0349 1.2064 1.1828
    -19 0.1471 -19 0.14713 0.000038 -5.296 0.0314 1.2033 1.1799
    -18 0.1962 -18 0.19622 0.000044 -4.997 0.0271 1.1999 1.1766
    -17 0.2262 -17 0.22619 0.000048 -4.667 0.0252 1.1971 1.1739
    -16 0.2972 -16 0.29721 0.000054 -4.363 0.0219 1.1940 1.1711
    -15 0.3695 -15 0.36947 0.000061 -4.042 0.0196 1.1907 1.1680
    -14 0.4311 -14 0.43109 0.000066 -3.765 0.0181 1.1881 1.1656
    -13 0.6057 -13 0.60565 0.000078 -3.464 0.0152 1.1849 1.1627
    -12 0.7369 -12 0.73691 0.000086 -3.201 0.0138 1.1820 1.1600
    -11 0.9120 -11 0.91202 0.000095 -2.921 0.0123 1.1792 1.1574
    -10 1.1527 -10 1.15273 0.000107 -2.632 0.0110 1.1764 1.1547
    -9 1.4325 -9 1.43246 0.000119 -2.405 0.0098 1.1736 1.1521
    -8 1.8628 -8 1.86281 0.000135 -2.124 0.0086 1.1709 1.1495
    -7 2.3354 -7 2.33540 0.000151 -1.892 0.0076 1.1683 1.1470
    -6 3.0160 -6 3.01600 0.000171 -1.660 0.0067 1.1659 1.1445
    -5 3.8311 -5 3.83111 0.000192 -1.426 0.0059 1.1636 1.1420
    -4 5.0898 -4 5.08982 0.000220 -1.185 0.0051 1.1615 1.1396
    -3 6.5933 -3 6.59330 0.000248 -0.948 0.0045 1.1595 1.1373
    -2 8.8894 -2 8.88945 0.000285 -0.710 0.0039 1.1573 1.1350
    -1 9.6568 -1 9.65681 0.000295 -0.487 0.0037 1.1553 1.1329
    0 14.3681 0 14.36813 0.000351 -0.259 0.0030 1.1544 1.1314
    1 8.3994 1 8.39939 0.000277 0.040 0.0040 1.1567 1.1325
    2 6.3760 2 6.37600 0.000244 0.320 0.0046 1.1579 1.1330
    3 4.8252 3 4.82516 0.000214 0.580 0.0053 1.1577 1.1325
    4 3.8007 4 3.80074 0.000191 0.860 0.0059 1.1560 1.1310
    5 2.9091 5 2.90913 0.000168 1.111 0.0068 1.1563 1.1321
    6 2.2983 6 2.29827 0.000150 1.385 0.0077 1.1611 1.1411
    7 1.7822 7 1.78220 0.000132 1.661 0.0087 1.1655 1.1547
    8 1.4484 8 1.44841 0.000119 1.952 0.0097 1.1643 1.1665
    9 1.1197 9 1.11969 0.000105 2.262 0.0110 1.1621 1.1737
    10 0.9017 10 0.90174 0.000095 2.554 0.0124 1.1743 1.1898
    11 0.6993 11 0.69925 0.000083 2.893 0.0141 1.1817 1.1976
    12 0.5430 12 0.54298 0.000073 3.190 0.0161 1.1839 1.2003
    13 0.4847 13 0.48475 0.000069 3.568 0.0170 1.1828 1.1997
    14 0.3644 14 0.36442 0.000060 3.892 0.0196 1.1810 1.1986
    15 0.2799 15 0.27987 0.000053 4.191 0.0223 1.1786 1.1971
    16 0.2287 16 0.22869 0.000048 4.504 0.0246 1.1763 1.1957
    17 0.1883 17 0.18832 0.000043 4.774 0.0270 1.1737 1.1940
    18 0.1440 18 0.14400 0.000038 5.150 0.0309 1.1713 1.1925
    19 0.1112 19 0.11116 0.000033 5.455 0.0351 1.1686 1.1909
    20 0.0935 20 0.09355 0.000031 5.762 0.0381 1.1663 1.1896
    21 0.0685 21 0.06854 0.000026 6.033 0.0445 1.1639 1.1880
    22 0.0555 22 0.05551 0.000024 6.311 0.0493 1.1614 1.1867
    23 0.0428 23 0.04279 0.000021 6.629 0.0560 1.1589 1.1849
    24 0.0337 24 0.03373 0.000018 6.953 0.0630 1.1564 1.1841
    25 0.1091 25 0.10907 0.000033 7.948 0.0347 1.1474 1.1786

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PRIMARY STATISTICS:


    Initial bet advantage (IBA):-0.30923%, St. Err. 0.001161%

    Total bets advantage (TBA): -0.27101%

    SCORE: 0.00

    Risk of Ruin: 100%

    Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is -309.23, with estim. std. 367.20

    Average st. dev. per round: 1.16120

    Av. std. per round per unit: 1.16120

    Average bet per round: 1.00000

    Average bet total: 1.14100

    Insurance contribution: 0.01608%
    Insurance contrib. to TBA: 0.01489%

    Number of sessions won: 524783
    Number of sessions lost: 837439
    Total number of sessions: 1362222
    Percentage of sessions won: 38.5240%, St. Err. 0.04170%
    Surplus bank: 342982.5

    Number of shoes played: 208642697

    Number of rounds played: 10000000035

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SECONDARY STATISTICS:


    AC BLJACK PUSH HDOUBL SDOUBL SPLIT SURREN INSUR INSADV ACDIST

    -10 3.744 9.193 10.163 1.908 2.944 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.167
    -9 3.841 9.196 9.963 1.888 2.915 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.446
    -8 3.941 9.197 9.765 1.869 2.889 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.877
    -7 4.043 9.193 9.570 1.848 2.859 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.348
    -6 4.148 9.181 9.377 1.828 2.835 0.000 0.000 0.000 3.025
    -5 4.252 9.154 9.189 1.807 2.808 0.000 0.000 0.000 3.835
    -4 4.359 9.124 9.002 1.785 2.784 0.000 0.000 0.000 5.084
    -3 4.467 9.088 8.823 1.764 2.760 0.000 0.000 0.000 6.572
    -2 4.579 9.061 8.648 1.743 2.737 0.000 0.000 0.000 8.843
    -1 4.684 9.040 8.489 1.723 2.715 0.000 0.000 0.000 9.588
    0 4.779 8.943 8.390 1.704 2.693 0.000 0.000 0.000 14.247
    1 4.899 8.891 8.451 1.775 2.668 0.000 0.000 0.000 8.337
    2 5.005 8.903 8.518 1.787 2.645 0.000 0.000 -2.096 6.331
    3 5.112 8.912 8.455 1.826 2.623 0.000 0.003 -1.052 4.789
    4 5.222 8.927 8.344 1.804 2.602 0.000 0.027 -0.073 3.767
    5 5.337 8.975 8.420 1.781 2.584 0.000 0.200 0.548 2.886
    6 5.479 9.079 8.921 1.766 2.571 0.000 1.160 0.804 2.298
    7 5.649 9.144 9.362 1.759 2.581 0.000 3.314 1.247 1.804
    8 5.848 9.238 9.404 1.756 2.594 0.000 6.072 1.730 1.481
    9 6.018 9.289 9.243 1.739 2.836 0.000 7.631 2.400 1.152
    10 6.161 9.256 8.927 1.688 4.305 0.000 8.374 3.253 0.940


    InsTC INSUR INSADV ST. ERR.

    7 7.092 0.791 0.020
    8 7.100 1.887 0.022
    9 7.103 2.915 0.025
    10 7.113 3.986 0.028



    CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE:

    Frequency of blackjack: 4.744%

    Frequency of pushing: 9.024%

    Frequency of hard doubling: 8.796%

    Frequency of soft doubling: 1.765%

    Frequency of splitting: 2.910%

    Frequency of insurance: 0.642%
    Insurance advantage: 5.011%



    CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS:

    AC Correlation Coef.

    -10 N/A
    -9 N/A
    -8 N/A
    -7 N/A
    -6 N/A
    -5 N/A
    -4 N/A
    -3 N/A
    -2 N/A
    -1 N/A
    0 N/A
    1 N/A
    2 N/A
    3 N/A
    4 N/A
    5 N/A
    6 N/A
    7 N/A
    8 N/A
    9 N/A
    10 N/A


    D E A L E R'S S T A T I S T I C S

    Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ Bust

    2 13.9715 13.4466 13.0052 12.4032 11.8402 -- 35.3334
    3 13.4407 13.0625 12.5244 12.0833 11.4922 -- 37.3969
    4 13.0694 12.4157 12.1315 11.6447 11.1856 -- 39.5531
    5 12.1969 12.2563 11.7626 11.1824 10.7947 -- 41.8070
    6 16.5769 10.6320 10.6514 10.1578 9.7279 -- 42.2540
    7 36.8996 13.8029 7.8508 7.8747 7.3834 -- 26.1886
    8 12.8991 35.9747 12.8795 6.9279 6.9530 -- 24.3658
    9 12.0374 11.7381 35.1598 12.0435 6.0936 -- 22.9277
    10 11.1977 11.1723 11.1970 33.9754 3.4859 7.7168 21.2547
    ace 13.0131 13.0899 13.0657 13.0908 5.3542 30.8404 11.5459


    Distribution of the final number of cards in Dealer's hand:

    Cards: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    Freq.: 45.4893 36.3655 14.8290 2.9473 0.3426 0.0251 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000


    Distribution of cards drawn to Dealer's initial two cards:

    Card: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ace
    Freq.: 7.6422 7.6435 7.6502 7.6515 7.6677 7.6945 7.7048 7.7159 30.9135 7.7162

  3. #13
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: HALVES Report II

     

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * S T A T I S T I C A L B L A C K J A C K A N A L Y Z E R *
    * Version 5.52, 1995-2003 *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


    ************************************************** **************************

    Simulation started on (MM/DD/YY): 03-16-2005 at 15:11:00
    Simulation finished on (MM/DD/YY): 03-16-2005 at 17:29:28
    Random seed = 1234567890


    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * R U L E S & C O N D I T I O N S *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    6 decks

    Shufflepoint 260 cards, (83.33% penetration)

    Face up game

    Head on game

    System used is HALVES with indices table halves2

    SBA floors when calculating the true count
    Remaining decks estimated exactly for true count conversion
    SBA divides running count by the number of 1/2 decks remaining

    American rules - hole card game

    Surrender is not allowed

    Dealer stands on all 17

    Doubling is allowed on any two cards

    Doubling is allowed after splitting

    Hand can be split 3 times, up to 4 hands

    No resplit of aces

    Only one card to split aces

    Different tens can be split

    Insurance is 1 half of a bet

    Predefined variables:
    INSURANCE = 3 Buy insurance if true count >= INSURANCE
    H7710 = 99 Hit 7,7 versus dealer's 10 if true count < H7710

    No user defined variables


    No leaving the shoe at any count

    Betting units are: 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

    For corresponding AC: -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

    Num. of hands played: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

    Player's bankroll is 100

    Aim bankroll is 200


    ************************************************** **************************


    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    * S I M U L A T I O N R E S U L T S *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COUNT STATISTICS (PRIMARY):


    TC PERCEN AC PERCEN ST. ERR. IBA ST. ERR. SDROUND ACTION

    -25 0.0001 -25 0.00007 0.000001 -21.505 1.6418 1.3239 1.3063
    -24 0.0001 -24 0.00007 0.000001 -19.929 1.5097 1.2944 1.2725
    -23 0.0002 -23 0.00015 0.000001 -19.960 1.0398 1.2875 1.2680
    -22 0.0003 -22 0.00031 0.000002 -16.208 0.7328 1.2873 1.2602
    -21 0.0006 -21 0.00062 0.000002 -15.738 0.5169 1.2862 1.2590
    -20 0.0012 -20 0.00120 0.000003 -14.643 0.3670 1.2739 1.2488
    -19 0.0022 -19 0.00220 0.000005 -13.696 0.2702 1.2667 1.2417
    -18 0.0043 -18 0.00428 0.000007 -12.394 0.1925 1.2595 1.2342
    -17 0.0072 -17 0.00724 0.000009 -11.386 0.1472 1.2531 1.2271
    -16 0.0130 -16 0.01303 0.000011 -10.137 0.1091 1.2455 1.2197
    -15 0.0222 -15 0.02215 0.000015 -9.234 0.0832 1.2382 1.2128
    -14 0.0342 -14 0.03418 0.000018 -8.479 0.0666 1.2313 1.2061
    -13 0.0678 -13 0.06778 0.000026 -7.586 0.0470 1.2241 1.1995
    -12 0.1041 -12 0.10412 0.000032 -6.831 0.0377 1.2177 1.1932
    -11 0.1658 -11 0.16580 0.000041 -6.140 0.0297 1.2111 1.1872
    -10 0.2667 -10 0.26670 0.000052 -5.451 0.0233 1.2047 1.1810
    -9 0.4224 -9 0.42237 0.000065 -4.789 0.0184 1.1984 1.1753
    -8 0.6670 -8 0.66701 0.000081 -4.161 0.0146 1.1921 1.1694
    -7 1.0374 -7 1.03738 0.000101 -3.629 0.0116 1.1862 1.1639
    -6 1.6496 -6 1.64964 0.000127 -3.030 0.0092 1.1804 1.1585
    -5 2.5856 -5 2.58557 0.000159 -2.505 0.0073 1.1748 1.1532
    -4 4.1993 -4 4.19927 0.000201 -2.004 0.0057 1.1695 1.1481
    -3 6.8480 -3 6.84804 0.000253 -1.524 0.0045 1.1648 1.1431
    -2 11.6894 -2 11.68941 0.000321 -1.048 0.0034 1.1604 1.1383
    -1 18.5493 -1 18.54928 0.000389 -0.591 0.0027 1.1563 1.1339
    0 22.7685 0 22.76852 0.000419 -0.151 0.0024 1.1549 1.1315
    1 11.1955 1 11.19551 0.000315 0.427 0.0035 1.1580 1.1331
    2 6.7097 2 6.70970 0.000250 0.964 0.0045 1.1546 1.1326
    3 4.0703 3 4.07035 0.000198 1.504 0.0057 1.1568 1.1537
    4 2.5688 4 2.56877 0.000158 2.090 0.0072 1.1597 1.1736
    5 1.6022 5 1.60223 0.000126 2.707 0.0092 1.1696 1.1888
    6 1.0276 6 1.02764 0.000101 3.363 0.0117 1.1818 1.1991
    7 0.6443 7 0.64433 0.000080 4.014 0.0147 1.1798 1.1978
    8 0.4169 8 0.41689 0.000064 4.656 0.0182 1.1750 1.1947
    9 0.2552 9 0.25520 0.000050 5.268 0.0232 1.1700 1.1917
    10 0.1621 10 0.16208 0.000040 5.882 0.0289 1.1655 1.1890
    11 0.0982 11 0.09820 0.000031 6.472 0.0370 1.1603 1.1861
    12 0.0566 12 0.05659 0.000024 7.041 0.0486 1.1555 1.1833
    13 0.0398 13 0.03982 0.000020 7.518 0.0577 1.1507 1.1804
    14 0.0207 14 0.02066 0.000014 8.110 0.0797 1.1462 1.1782
    15 0.0116 15 0.01163 0.000011 8.602 0.1058 1.1411 1.1751
    16 0.0065 16 0.00650 0.000008 9.282 0.1410 1.1367 1.1735
    17 0.0037 17 0.00368 0.000006 9.857 0.1865 1.1313 1.1706
    18 0.0019 18 0.00190 0.000004 9.921 0.2587 1.1274 1.1679
    19 0.0010 19 0.00098 0.000003 10.509 0.3572 1.1183 1.1647
    20 0.0005 20 0.00049 0.000002 10.809 0.5032 1.1185 1.1635
    21 0.0002 21 0.00024 0.000002 11.579 0.7215 1.1103 1.1615
    22 0.0001 22 0.00012 0.000001 12.107 1.0330 1.1163 1.1623
    23 0.0001 23 0.00005 0.000001 12.635 1.5275 1.1103 1.1594
    24 0.0000 24 0.00002 0.000000 12.123 2.2659 1.0987 1.1510
    25 0.0000 25 0.00002 0.000000 11.399 2.4507 1.0863 1.1450

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PRIMARY STATISTICS:


    Initial bet advantage (IBA):-0.30958%, St. Err. 0.001161%

    Total bets advantage (TBA): -0.27124%

    SCORE: 0.00

    Risk of Ruin: 100%

    Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is -309.58, with estim. std. 367.00

    Average st. dev. per round: 1.16055

    Av. std. per round per unit: 1.16055

    Average bet per round: 1.00000

    Average bet total: 1.14133

    Insurance contribution: 0.01582%
    Insurance contrib. to TBA: 0.01488%

    Number of sessions won: 523413
    Number of sessions lost: 836420
    Total number of sessions: 1359833
    Percentage of sessions won: 38.4910%, St. Err. 0.04173%
    Surplus bank: 342773

    Number of shoes played: 208658952

    Number of rounds played: 10000000011

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SECONDARY STATISTICS:


    AC BLJACK PUSH HDOUBL SDOUBL SPLIT SURREN INSUR INSADV ACDIST

    -10 2.897 9.232 12.215 2.065 3.235 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.276
    -9 3.060 9.224 11.759 2.036 3.175 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.435
    -8 3.236 9.211 11.310 2.001 3.106 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.683
    -7 3.411 9.204 10.875 1.970 3.046 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.058
    -6 3.601 9.198 10.458 1.934 2.984 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.674
    -5 3.797 9.192 10.048 1.897 2.926 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.612
    -4 3.997 9.190 9.655 1.857 2.872 0.000 0.000 0.000 4.224
    -3 4.206 9.152 9.271 1.817 2.819 0.000 0.000 0.000 6.859
    -2 4.420 9.100 8.901 1.773 2.771 0.000 0.000 0.000 11.658
    -1 4.634 9.050 8.565 1.732 2.726 0.000 0.000 0.000 18.428
    0 4.824 8.926 8.410 1.706 2.684 0.000 0.000 -3.557 22.573
    1 5.052 8.919 8.482 1.839 2.636 0.000 0.011 -0.200 11.115
    2 5.285 8.962 8.280 1.797 2.600 0.000 0.564 -0.315 6.658
    3 5.623 9.215 8.681 1.782 2.609 0.000 4.609 0.399 4.115
    4 5.954 9.363 9.328 1.761 2.611 0.000 7.964 1.709 2.641
    5 6.234 9.315 8.875 1.690 4.073 0.000 8.913 3.477 1.669
    6 6.501 9.318 8.375 1.616 5.348 0.000 9.238 5.487 1.080
    7 6.770 9.388 7.980 1.558 5.569 0.000 9.441 7.594 0.676
    8 7.050 9.472 7.604 1.504 5.615 0.000 9.625 9.801 0.436
    9 7.337 9.551 7.244 1.449 5.647 0.000 9.838 11.851 0.266
    10 7.641 9.669 6.910 1.396 5.684 0.000 10.036 14.282 0.169


    InsTC INSUR INSADV ST. ERR.

    3 7.089 0.182 0.013
    4 7.104 2.312 0.016
    5 7.107 4.476 0.021
    6 7.116 6.593 0.026
    7 7.123 8.715 0.033
    8 7.114 10.914 0.041
    9 7.105 13.421 0.052
    10 7.088 15.571 0.065



    CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE:

    Frequency of blackjack: 4.744%

    Frequency of pushing: 9.025%

    Frequency of hard doubling: 8.764%

    Frequency of soft doubling: 1.764%

    Frequency of splitting: 2.897%

    Frequency of insurance: 0.806%
    Insurance advantage: 3.925%



    CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS:

    AC Correlation Coef.

    -10 N/A
    -9 N/A
    -8 N/A
    -7 N/A
    -6 N/A
    -5 N/A
    -4 N/A
    -3 N/A
    -2 N/A
    -1 N/A
    0 N/A
    1 N/A
    2 N/A
    3 N/A
    4 N/A
    5 N/A
    6 N/A
    7 N/A
    8 N/A
    9 N/A
    10 N/A


    D E A L E R'S S T A T I S T I C S

    Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ Bust

    2 13.9765 13.4457 13.0049 12.4033 11.8397 -- 35.3300
    3 13.4413 13.0606 12.5248 12.0825 11.4929 -- 37.3980
    4 13.0666 12.4162 12.1325 11.6466 11.1868 -- 39.5512
    5 12.1989 12.2543 11.7636 11.1825 10.7948 -- 41.8059
    6 16.5796 10.6325 10.6520 10.1606 9.7271 -- 42.2482
    7 36.8979 13.8017 7.8509 7.8738 7.3864 -- 26.1893
    8 12.9004 35.9720 12.8814 6.9286 6.9514 -- 24.3661
    9 12.0376 11.7393 35.1597 12.0416 6.0941 -- 22.9278
    10 11.1974 11.1729 11.1956 33.9764 3.4855 7.7171 21.2551
    ace 13.0112 13.0923 13.0677 13.0931 5.3549 30.8379 11.5429


    Distribution of the final number of cards in Dealer's hand:

    Cards: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    Freq.: 45.5152 36.3475 14.8226 2.9459 0.3425 0.0251 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000


    Distribution of cards drawn to Dealer's initial two cards:

    Card: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ace
    Freq.: 7.6429 7.6446 7.6507 7.6518 7.6672 7.6950 7.7048 7.7150 30.9121 7.7159

  4. #14
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: Try running both sims again, . . .

    > . . . but don't let either system use an
    > Insurance index.

    > That should help isolate the negative effect
    > on Insurance, of Halves counting the nine.

    That's exactly what I said in a thread below. The power of ZEN resides precisely in its insurance efficiency.
    Don't need to run the sims because it is obvious that without Insurance HALVES must outperforms ZEN.

    In any case, I've posted all the details of my sims just in case you or anyone wanted to verify the posted SCOREs.

    Thanks.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  5. #15
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: Sorry, can't agree

    > Do you think that there's something about LS
    > or adding four indices that would so
    > drastically turn the results? That just
    > isn't fair to suggest.

    Haven't run sims with LS so I can't comment there.

    > And CVCX was done without LS, so everything
    > was identical, except for the four
    > additional indices for Catch-22, which
    > surely aren't going to magically render Zen
    > more powerful than Halves.

    The reasons could be many, namely less indices, different set of indices used, standard error (not too many rounds simmed), burned cards, more players at the table, etc.

    > Finally, It was SBA that John used to
    > generate the charts in BJA3, so we truly
    > have a strange dilemma, no?

    That's why I posted SBA's input/output data.

    > You're entitled to believe that, of course.
    > I'm entitled to believe that a level-2
    > balanced, true-counted system isn't going to
    > outperform the Rolls Royce of level-3
    > balanced, true counted systems (99+% BC) in
    > a shoe game with a 1-16 spread. :-)

    Ahh, but BC isn't everything. You're underestimating the value of Insurance Shouldn't we use the SCORE to measure these things? :-)

    Cac

  6. #16
    JohnAuston
    Guest

    JohnAuston: Re: Try running both sims again, . . .

    >>Don't need to run the sims because it is obvious that without Insurance HALVES must outperforms ZEN.

    Well, what say we just see, eh?

    Some very smart people say it is obvious that HALVES outperforms ZEN even with Insurance.

    Please. Re-run the sims that show Zen winning, but just disable the Insurance index for both Zen and Halves.

    Then, if ALL the advantage goes away, we will know that that was it, and can debate whether or not that makes sense.

    But if Zen still wins, then we will have learned something important that will let us continue further analysis into the "anomaly".

    What would be the reason to NOT re-run the sims without Insurance?

  7. #17
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: Try running both sims again, . . .

    > Well, what say we just see, eh?

    > Some very smart people say it is obvious
    > that HALVES outperforms ZEN even with
    > Insurance.

    > Please. Re-run the sims that show Zen
    > winning, but just disable the Insurance
    > index for both Zen and Halves.

    > Then, if ALL the advantage goes away, we
    > will know that that was it, and can debate
    > whether or not that makes sense.

    Seems fair.

    > But if Zen still wins, then we will have
    > learned something important that will let us
    > continue further analysis into the
    > "anomaly".

    > What would be the reason to NOT re-run the
    > sims without Insurance?

    There's no problem, I'll do it.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  8. #18
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Full indexes from Norm's archived sims

    From CVCX archives I?ve copied these two Norm?s reports:

     

    PA Opt 1-16 Kb Avg.Bet %W/L $100 SD/100 RoR N0 DI SCORE
    Zen full ind. 793 34.68 1.35 46.95 706.49 13.5 21308 6.85 46.93
    Halves full ind.797 33.78 1.38 46.52 706.88 13.5 21481 6.82 46.55


    According to Norm the first one is Zen(?80), Heads up (2000 e09) and the second one Halves, Full indexes (2000 e09).

    Skipping here the word ?Heads up? probably means with three other customers at the table, for the second one. Norm should clarify this. Heads up could be another story. Also 22 indexes only, too. But all in all Cacarulo has his chances being right here.

    I will try to go for Catch 22.

    A little of patience, please.

    Zenfighter

  9. #19
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Too many questions

    > From CVCX archives I?ve copied these two
    > Norm?s reports:
    >
    > PA Opt 1-16 Kb Avg.Bet %W/L $100 SD/100 RoR
    > N0 DI SCORE
    > Zen full ind. 793 34.68 1.35 46.95 706.49
    > 13.5 21308 6.85 46.93
    > Halves full ind.797 33.78 1.38 46.52 706.88
    > 13.5 21481 6.82 46.55
    > According to Norm the first one is
    > Zen(?80), Heads up (2000 e09) and the second
    > one Halves, Full indexes (2000 e09).
    > Skipping here the word ?Heads up? probably
    > means with three other customers at the
    > table, for the second one. Norm should
    > clarify this. Heads up could be another
    > story. Also 22 indexes only, too. But all in
    > all Cacarulo has his chances being right
    > here.
    > I will try to go for Catch 22.

    "Full indexes" can't be an apples-to-apples comparison, because it means different things for different counts. The only way to compare is when the actual I18 (or Catch-22) are indicated, because then we know the same number of indexes, and the same plays were used for both sims.

    Finally, once again, no one is addressing why the CVCX I18 sims for the two counts come out the way they do -- heavily in favor of Halves -- or why the SBA sims that John ran for BJA3 come out the same way.

    Don

  10. #20
    JohnAuston
    Guest

    JohnAuston: I'm trying . . .

    > Finally, once again, no one is addressing
    > why the CVCX I18 sims for the two counts
    > come out the way they do -- heavily in favor
    > of Halves -- or why the SBA sims that John
    > ran for BJA3 come out the same way.

    . . . to help zero in on that ( see request to have the sims rerun, sans Insurance )

    My thinking is , since the main edge Zen would have on Halves would be on Insurance, maybe the problem is there. SBA allows you set what ratio Insurance pays off at. Maybe that is accidentally set for a bigger Insurance payoff, playing to Zen?s edge?

    Just guessing at this point.

    John

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