The HALVES vs ZEN dispute
Game Analyzed: 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,5/6,C22 indices (floored),
Heads Up,Play-All,10000 Million rounds (double than what I used in my previous
sims)
Note: All the sims in this post were run using SBA 5.52. The indices
were also created with SBA (5 sigma). The reason for choosing SBA and not
CVData is simply because I already have a C-program that imports the SBA
output data which is then used to create the following tables:
A) HALVES x 2 (using full-deck indices and full-deck estimation)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 1 -0.309 11.612 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
1 - 2 0.083 15.870 13.53 3685022 0.52 0.27 3046.39 1.289 3.283 1.000
1 - 3 0.457 20.222 13.53 195874 2.26 5.11 894.97 1.523 11.174 1.000
1 - 4 0.794 23.789 13.53 89788 3.34 11.14 712.81 1.677 14.029 1.000
1 - 5 1.106 27.156 13.53 60252 4.07 16.60 666.57 1.810 15.002 1.000
1 - 6 1.396 30.264 13.53 47030 4.61 21.26 656.31 1.927 15.237 1.000
1 - 7 1.672 33.299 13.53 39646 5.02 25.22 663.01 2.038 15.083 1.000
1 - 8 1.931 36.100 13.53 34962 5.35 28.60 675.01 2.138 14.815 1.000
1 - 9 2.176 38.778 13.53 31744 5.61 31.50 690.89 2.232 14.474 1.000
1 - 10 2.421 41.511 13.53 29392 5.83 34.02 711.65 2.329 14.052 1.000
1 - 11 2.654 44.089 13.53 27607 6.02 36.22 732.56 2.419 13.651 1.000
1 - 12 2.881 46.640 13.53 26201 6.18 38.17 754.94 2.507 13.246 1.000
1 - 13 3.116 49.333 13.53 25070 6.32 39.89 781.11 2.601 12.802 1.000
1 - 14 3.331 51.758 13.53 24140 6.44 41.43 804.16 2.685 12.435 1.000
1 - 15 3.548 54.231 13.53 23359 6.54 42.81 828.85 2.770 12.065 1.000
1 - 16 3.761 56.663 13.53 22697 6.64 44.06 853.64 2.854 11.714 1.000
1 - 17 3.960 58.900 13.53 22125 6.72 45.20 876.10 2.930 11.414 1.000
1 - 18 4.163 61.223 13.53 21627 6.80 46.24 900.33 3.010 11.107 1.000
1 - 19 4.370 63.613 13.53 21189 6.87 47.20 925.96 3.092 10.800 1.000
1 - 20 4.566 65.848 13.53 20802 6.93 48.07 949.71 3.169 10.530 1.000
B) HALVES x 2 (using half-deck indices and half-deck estimation)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 1 -0.310 11.606 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
1 - 2 0.081 15.851 13.53 3809335 0.51 0.26 3093.62 1.289 3.232 1.000
1 - 3 0.472 21.106 13.53 199827 2.24 5.00 943.50 1.578 10.599 1.000
1 - 4 0.780 23.537 13.53 91059 3.31 10.98 710.27 1.672 14.079 1.000
1 - 5 1.111 27.425 13.53 60910 4.05 16.42 676.85 1.830 14.774 1.000
1 - 6 1.374 29.917 13.53 47413 4.59 21.09 651.42 1.919 15.351 1.000
1 - 7 1.658 33.114 13.53 39868 5.01 25.08 661.18 2.037 15.124 1.000
1 - 8 1.920 36.006 13.53 35157 5.33 28.44 675.13 2.142 14.812 1.000
1 - 9 2.152 38.428 13.53 31886 5.60 31.36 686.20 2.225 14.573 1.000
1 - 10 2.396 41.156 13.53 29498 5.82 33.90 706.83 2.321 14.148 1.000
1 - 11 2.648 44.069 13.53 27693 6.01 36.11 733.35 2.425 13.636 1.000
1 - 12 2.889 46.838 13.53 26288 6.17 38.04 759.40 2.523 13.168 1.000
1 - 13 3.091 49.015 13.53 25150 6.31 39.76 777.31 2.597 12.865 1.000
1 - 14 3.301 51.359 13.53 24208 6.43 41.31 799.08 2.677 12.514 1.000
1 - 15 3.517 53.821 13.53 23418 6.53 42.70 823.62 2.762 12.142 1.000
1 - 16 3.738 56.372 13.53 22748 6.63 43.96 850.22 2.851 11.762 1.000
1 - 17 3.962 58.990 13.53 22173 6.72 45.10 878.39 2.942 11.384 1.000
1 - 18 4.184 61.594 13.53 21676 6.79 46.13 906.83 3.033 11.027 1.000
1 - 19 4.364 63.592 13.53 21239 6.86 47.08 926.75 3.101 10.790 1.000
1 - 20 4.549 65.677 13.53 20850 6.93 47.96 948.33 3.172 10.545 1.000
C) ZEN (using full-deck indices and full-deck estimation)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 1 -0.292 11.613 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
1 - 2 0.099 16.694 13.53 2859696 0.59 0.35 2823.09 1.357 3.542 1.000
1 - 3 0.462 20.063 13.53 188984 2.30 5.29 872.20 1.507 11.465 1.000
1 - 4 0.795 23.622 13.53 88209 3.37 11.34 701.58 1.662 14.253 1.000
1 - 5 1.102 26.889 13.53 59544 4.10 16.79 656.12 1.790 15.241 1.000
1 - 6 1.377 29.734 13.53 46595 4.63 21.46 641.83 1.895 15.580 1.000
1 - 7 1.642 32.573 13.53 39339 5.04 25.42 646.06 1.998 15.479 1.000
1 - 8 1.900 35.396 13.53 34714 5.37 28.81 659.49 2.097 15.163 1.000
1 - 9 2.139 37.987 13.53 31538 5.63 31.71 674.61 2.187 14.823 1.000
1 - 10 2.376 40.604 13.53 29212 5.85 34.23 693.99 2.278 14.410 1.000
1 - 11 2.619 43.389 13.53 27449 6.04 36.43 718.85 2.375 13.911 1.000
1 - 12 2.834 45.759 13.53 26064 6.19 38.37 738.75 2.455 13.536 1.000
1 - 13 3.057 48.287 13.53 24946 6.33 40.09 762.65 2.541 13.112 1.000
1 - 14 3.285 50.926 13.53 24028 6.45 41.62 789.38 2.632 12.668 1.000
1 - 15 3.496 53.326 13.53 23261 6.56 42.99 813.29 2.714 12.296 1.000
1 - 16 3.702 55.668 13.53 22607 6.65 44.23 837.00 2.793 11.947 1.000
1 - 17 3.913 58.092 13.53 22045 6.74 45.36 862.51 2.875 11.594 1.000
1 - 18 4.126 60.580 13.53 21557 6.81 46.39 889.44 2.960 11.243 1.000
1 - 19 4.334 62.997 13.53 21129 6.88 47.33 915.70 3.042 10.921 1.000
1 - 20 4.527 65.207 13.53 20751 6.94 48.19 939.30 3.116 10.646 1.000
D) ZEN (using half-deck indices and half-deck estimation)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 1 -0.293 11.609 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
1 - 2 0.088 15.547 13.53 3146906 0.56 0.32 2758.00 1.265 3.626 1.000
1 - 3 0.468 20.493 13.53 191414 2.29 5.22 896.59 1.530 11.153 1.000
1 - 4 0.779 23.475 13.53 90800 3.32 11.01 707.38 1.666 14.137 1.000
1 - 5 1.085 26.780 13.53 60894 4.05 16.42 660.83 1.794 15.132 1.000
1 - 6 1.375 30.036 13.53 47697 4.58 20.97 655.97 1.918 15.245 1.000
1 - 7 1.614 32.345 13.53 40182 4.99 24.89 648.36 1.996 15.424 1.000
1 - 8 1.871 35.188 13.53 35387 5.32 28.26 661.92 2.096 15.108 1.000
1 - 9 2.137 38.304 13.53 32121 5.58 31.13 686.50 2.207 14.567 1.000
1 - 10 2.380 41.061 13.53 29772 5.80 33.59 708.48 2.304 14.115 1.000
1 - 11 2.584 43.209 13.53 27968 5.98 35.76 722.59 2.375 13.839 1.000
1 - 12 2.798 45.587 13.53 26540 6.14 37.68 742.66 2.456 13.465 1.000
1 - 13 3.020 48.121 13.53 25388 6.28 39.39 766.74 2.542 13.042 1.000
1 - 14 3.247 50.764 13.53 24443 6.40 40.91 793.65 2.633 12.600 1.000
1 - 15 3.478 53.487 13.53 23656 6.50 42.27 822.65 2.727 12.156 1.000
1 - 16 3.711 56.270 13.53 22992 6.59 43.49 853.22 2.823 11.720 1.000
1 - 17 3.901 58.417 13.53 22422 6.68 44.60 874.74 2.895 11.432 1.000
1 - 18 4.084 60.467 13.53 21923 6.75 45.61 895.30 2.964 11.169 1.000
1 - 19 4.271 62.605 13.53 21483 6.82 46.55 917.60 3.035 10.898 1.000
1 - 20 4.463 64.812 13.53 21093 6.89 47.41 941.28 3.109 10.624 1.000
The most important thing to understand from these tables is that full-deck indices
with full-deck estimation is far better than half-deck indices with half-deck
estimation! This means that the correct comparison would be A) against C) which
again shows ZEN outperforming HALVES.
If anyone wanted the input/output data from SBA just let me know and I'll post it
here. Besides, it is useful is you want to use BJRM.
Also, just in case SBA 5.52 were not enough to convince you I did run another lengthy sim
but with my own simulator. The advantage of it is that it does not require any imports
which allows me to get a little more precision. Here it goes:
E) HALVES x 2 (using full-deck indices and full-deck estimation)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 1 -0.308 11.613 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
1 - 2 0.084 15.874 13.53 3597675 0.53 0.28 3010.89 1.289 3.321 1.000
1 - 3 0.458 20.201 13.53 194812 2.27 5.13 891.60 1.521 11.216 1.000
1 - 4 0.796 23.798 13.53 89471 3.34 11.18 711.85 1.676 14.048 1.000
1 - 5 1.105 27.074 13.53 60044 4.08 16.65 663.41 1.805 15.074 1.000
1 - 6 1.397 30.246 13.53 46868 4.62 21.34 654.78 1.925 15.272 1.000
1 - 7 1.673 33.258 13.53 39519 5.03 25.30 661.15 2.035 15.125 1.000
1 - 8 1.932 36.070 13.53 34854 5.36 28.69 673.40 2.135 14.850 1.000
1 - 9 2.174 38.677 13.53 31644 5.62 31.60 688.01 2.226 14.535 1.000
1 - 10 2.420 41.419 13.53 29298 5.84 34.13 708.95 2.323 14.105 1.000
1 - 11 2.655 44.050 13.53 27520 6.03 36.34 730.74 2.414 13.685 1.000
1 - 12 2.884 46.607 13.53 26120 6.19 38.29 753.23 2.503 13.276 1.000
1 - 13 3.119 49.305 13.53 24993 6.33 40.01 779.47 2.597 12.829 1.000
1 - 14 3.331 51.667 13.53 24066 6.45 41.55 801.51 2.678 12.476 1.000
1 - 15 3.548 54.145 13.53 23288 6.55 42.94 826.27 2.764 12.103 1.000
1 - 16 3.767 56.663 13.53 22628 6.65 44.19 852.35 2.851 11.732 1.000
1 - 17 3.966 58.905 13.53 22059 6.73 45.33 874.87 2.927 11.430 1.000
1 - 18 4.170 61.233 13.53 21563 6.81 46.38 899.16 3.007 11.121 1.000
1 - 19 4.377 63.627 13.53 21128 6.88 47.33 924.84 3.089 10.813 1.000
1 - 20 4.575 65.896 13.53 20743 6.94 48.21 949.05 3.167 10.537 1.000
F) ZEN (using full-deck indices and full-deck estimation)
play-all | rounds played = 100.00%
spread ev/h sd/h ror% n0 di score ekb avb unit kelly
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 1 -0.292 11.614 100.00 0 0.00 0.00 10000.00 1.000 1.000 0.000
1 - 2 0.099 16.699 13.53 2839117 0.59 0.35 2813.71 1.357 3.554 1.000
1 - 3 0.463 20.083 13.53 188394 2.30 5.31 871.70 1.508 11.472 1.000
1 - 4 0.796 23.607 13.53 87992 3.37 11.36 700.26 1.661 14.280 1.000
1 - 5 1.103 26.883 13.53 59386 4.10 16.84 655.11 1.790 15.265 1.000
1 - 6 1.378 29.705 13.53 46457 4.64 21.53 640.26 1.894 15.619 1.000
1 - 7 1.645 32.572 13.53 39220 5.05 25.50 645.05 1.997 15.503 1.000
1 - 8 1.903 35.399 13.53 34610 5.38 28.89 658.56 2.097 15.185 1.000
1 - 9 2.143 38.004 13.53 31445 5.64 31.80 673.91 2.187 14.839 1.000
1 - 10 2.380 40.625 13.53 29127 5.86 34.33 693.33 2.278 14.423 1.000
1 - 11 2.624 43.411 13.53 27371 6.04 36.54 718.18 2.375 13.924 1.000
1 - 12 2.840 45.784 13.53 25991 6.20 38.48 738.11 2.455 13.548 1.000
1 - 13 3.063 48.315 13.53 24877 6.34 40.20 762.03 2.542 13.123 1.000
1 - 14 3.292 50.957 13.53 23962 6.46 41.73 788.78 2.633 12.678 1.000
1 - 15 3.502 53.330 13.53 23197 6.57 43.11 812.23 2.713 12.312 1.000
1 - 16 3.708 55.674 13.53 22545 6.66 44.36 835.95 2.792 11.962 1.000
1 - 17 3.919 58.101 13.53 21985 6.74 45.49 861.47 2.875 11.608 1.000
1 - 18 4.133 60.592 13.53 21498 6.82 46.52 888.40 2.959 11.256 1.000
1 - 19 4.337 62.953 13.53 21072 6.89 47.46 913.82 3.039 10.943 1.000
1 - 20 4.530 65.166 13.53 20694 6.95 48.33 937.43 3.114 10.668 1.000
For me this is case closed
Sincerely,
Cac
Bookmarks