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Thread: Sun Runner: Ace side count (Cardkountr)

  1. #27
    Boardwalker
    Guest

    Boardwalker: Re: One Additional question.P.S...

    P.S.

    I guess in practice you would round up 2.7, 2.8, and 2.9 to 3. So practically there is no difference.

    Cheers,
    Boardwalker

    > The following quote is from Wongs 1981
    > Professional Blackjack; "More
    > precisely, when using high-low adjusted for
    > aces, insurance is profitable above +3 for
    > one deck, +2.9 for two decks, +2.8 for four
    > decks,and 2.7 for six decks". Don, this
    > seems to contradict your advise to always
    > use +3.

    > Cheers,
    > Boardwalker

  2. #28
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Understanding your calculations

    You wrote:

    2) IC for my PC (primary count)
    A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T

    0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1


    IC (6D) = 0.8674

    There are no doubts about the accuracy of your calculations. Before answering Card, while playing with a software that uses Brett Harris? conversion formula for unbalanced counts, I got .86 for this type of side count, too. The main reason for having used an ace indicator count to estimate his gains in efficiency was that actually he is not employing these methods. Instead he is monitoring the presence of aces among others. E.g. looking for 8 aces and 96 others among, let?s say 104 cards. Thus as a general rule, this one seems to me the same as the efficiency of the ace indicator count, who we all know has a very low insurance correlation. I can be wrong, obviously, but still have my doubts about the accuracy of subtracting +/-2 always using Card?s methods.

    Regarding your side count, it looks like it work better in the nearby of the pivot.

    Example added. (156 cards already dealt out and 156 remaining)

     

    Rank Quantity

    A 10
    2 13
    3 13
    4 13
    5 13
    6 13
    7 12
    8 12
    9 12
    T 45



    Hilo RC = 65 ? 55 = 10

    TC = 10/3 = 3.33

    Insurance? Yes

    Perfect insurance? 51/156 =. 3269 thus

    Do not take insurance.

    Your side count:

    RC = -24 + (65 - 45) = - 4 (in the nearby of the pivot) therefore

    Do not take insurance. Perfect decision.

    Can you run a sim with just one index? I mean Hilo and +3 for insurance decisions and the other one adjusting this solo index before buying it?

    Thanks

    Zenfighter

  3. #29
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: A practical example

    > Let?s consider this artificial subset of 104
    > cards already dealt out (4 dks remaining):
    > Rank Quantity
    > A 6
    > 2 9
    > 3 9
    > 4 9
    > 5 9
    > 6 9
    > 7 9
    > 8 9
    > 9 8
    > T 27
    >
    > Hilo RC? RC = 45 ? 33 = 12
    > Hilo TC? 12/4 = 3
    > Traditional insurance? Yes
    > Remaining cards: 69 tens and 135 others.
    > Density of remaining tens? 69/204 = .3382
    > Perfect insurance? Yes because .3382
    > =>.3333
    > Adjusting here for an excess of 2 aces
    > remaining:
    > 12 ? (2*2) = 8 and
    > 8/4 = 2, thus
    > Do not take insurance.
    > At least here it doesn?t seems to work,
    > properly.
    > An example only, I know.
    > What do you get here with a starting IRC =
    > -24?

    Ok, here it goes using my calculations:

    I) Hi-Lo --> Index = +3

    RC = +12
    TC = +12/4 = +3 ==> Take Insurance

    Note that if you use +3.01 you wouldn't take it

    II) PC (0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1) --> Index = -1

    RC = -6
    TC = -6/4 = -1.5 = -2 (flooring) ==> Don't take Insurance

    III) PC + SC (1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1) --> Index = -5

    RC = -24
    TC = -24/4 = -6 ==> Don't take Insurance

    Remember that both PC and SC have an IRC of -24. Also SC is (1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0).

    Interesting example!

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  4. #30
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: See my answer above *NM*


  5. #31
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: One Additional question.P.S...

    > I guess in practice you would round up 2.7,
    > 2.8, and 2.9 to 3. So practically there is
    > no difference.

    The point is that a system seller would likely simply tell you to use +3 for all of the above values.

    Don

  6. #32
    John Lewis
    Guest

    John Lewis: how did you arrive at this system? *NM*


  7. #33
    John Lewis
    Guest

    John Lewis: Re: Ace side count (Cardkountr)

    "Doubling 11 against a dealers 10 or Ace can be dangerous if there are an excess number of aces remaining in the unplayed cards; because for this play the aces are counted in the wrong direction as a minus card when actually they react as a plus card for this double, therefore I subtract 2 points for each excess remaining ace from your running count prior to converting to a true count and then apply the index to make the playing decision."

    This is a departure from Wong's technique.

    "For Betting Decisions: This is a really tough one in a shoe game because extra ace information is of limited value for betting purposes unless you know where they are located within the shoe or you are really deep into the shoe have excess aces remaining and have a high count after your ace adjustment. In that situation I'll double my normal bet for the count and increase my betting ramp making it steeper because of the potential of catching the bj's."

    This, also is a departure from Wong's technique. There is currently a post concerning this on "Theory and Math."

    Mathprof has posted that aces are actually less advantageous than 10's in H17 for betting purposes. He also asserts that their value is only approximately 1/4 more than 10's for betting purposes in S17.

    -- JL


  8. #34
    John Lewis
    Guest

    John Lewis: Re: One Additional question....

    Don

    You have accurately described Wong's method. Do you feel this is indeed the optimum method for calculating insurance using hi lo with the ace side count?

    A paragraph from my post higher in the thread:

    "It is curious. also, that for insurance calculation Wong does indeed follow Griffin's guideline, and counts aces as +1, requiring a 2 index point adjustment to the RC for each ace imbalance. It is not obvious to me why the ace would be handled differently in this situation than in any other playing decision, given that we are merely trying to perform a 10 count."

    Would you please explain the rationale for Wong's departure from his primary ace ajustment technique for the insurance decision?

    Thank you,

    JL


  9. #35
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Unpretentious sims

    Short simulations:

    6dks, das, spl3 and spa1. 5/6 dealt out.

    Bets: 1 unit at TC = 1 or > otherwise null.

    Indices: Basic strategy to play the hands except Insurance Hilo index (+3)

    The software looks to see how many aces are out of the deck. If there are more than the proportional share, than this excess out is multiplied by the multiplier as a negative and adjusted conveniently with the main count before the final calculation. The opposite case means the number will be positive instead. Same procedure.

     

    1) Traditional Hilo count without adjustments:

    wr = .89 se = .02

    2) Using an ace multiplier = 1 with the proportional share of aces

    wr = .92 se = .02

    3) Using an ace multiplier = 2 with the proportional share of aces

    wr = .84 se = .02


    At least here, you can see that there is no base to support the notion to deduct 2 for every ace in excess still remaining.

    Let?s keep this open to further double checks and more accurately sims.

    Heading West? Hmmn?.. :-)

    Best regards

    Zenfighter

  10. #36
    John Lewis
    Guest

    John Lewis: what type of ace adjustment strategy was used?

    Zen

    Thank you for the data.

    In calculating this data, did you (or Cacarulo, or whoever did the work) use Wong's method presented in earlier PBJ editions? Or another technique?

    Also, am I correct in assuming that this SCORE data includes gain from improved insurance correlation? If so, was this calculated using Wong's method (discussed by Schlesinger and others further down the thread)?

    As we discussed 2 years ago on a different board, I strongly suspect that standard ace-adjusted hi lo counts are deficient.

    Wong did indeed discuss the ace side count to hi lo in earlier editions of PBJ (I am relying on my 1977 edition for these comments). His technique was to value imbalanced aces as 0 for all playing decisions.

    Examining Wong's SD ace side count index tables, note that these tables appear to be essentially identical to his standard SD index tables. (These are somewhat abbreviated tables in my edition, however; no values are given for counts below -2 in the SD tables. Such a limited index range is inadequate in SD.) Thus Wong does not appear make any special accomodations for ace adjusted playing strategy other than the simple one described above and stated in his text.

    It is curious that for insurance calculation Wong alters his ace adjustment technique and counts aces as +1, requiring a 2 index point adjustment to the RC for each ace imbalance. It is not obvious to me why the ace would be handled differently in this situation than in any other playing decision, given that we are merely trying to perform a 10 count when considering insurance. I hope someone will explain this.

    The ace almost certainly counts as a high card in certain situations: double 8 through 10, and split 88,99, and 10,10. These hands should not be ace-adjusted for playing purposes. (This, also, is alluded to in other posts in this thread.)

    Also, perhaps imbalanced aces should actually be counted as small cards for certain plays, and given a value of -1 vs 0. For example, double 11 (as per Cardkounter's post) and splitting aces.

    Thus traditional SCORE and playing efficacy calculations, based on a uniform treatment of the ace for playing strategy, would presumably underestimate gain from the ace side count if the above premises are correct.

    I hope someone with the requisite skills will examine this interesting hi lo question. If a greater yield from ace side counting could be demonstrated the technique might be an attractive one for some hi lo players.

    Thanks

    John

  11. #37
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Thanks man ..

    Exactly the response I was looking for.

  12. #38
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: One Additional question.P.S...

    >> I guess in practice you would round up 2.7,
    >> 2.8, and 2.9 to 3. So practically there is
    >> no difference.

    > The point is that a system seller would likely simply tell you to use +3 for all of the above values.

    And they would be doing you a favor.

    I'll again say that 95% of those playing BJ could not come up with a quotient of 2.7, 2.8, or 2.9 in the solitutde of a math class let alone under the bright lights of the casino.

    +3 is a good answer.

  13. #39
    John Lewis
    Guest

    John Lewis: isn't this example reversed?

    "Example for SD:

    26 cards already gone, RC = 2 and 3 Aces played

    Hand = 12 vs. 2 (Rules= sd, h17, das, spl3 and spa1)

    Here the pack is one Ace poor, therefore our Ai = -1

    RC = 2-1 = 1

    TC = 1/(1/2) = 2

    12 vs. 2 ? Hit or stand. Well you should hit.

    Without adjustments:

    RC = 2

    TC = 2/(1/2) = 4

    12 vs. 2? Hit or stand. Well you should stand."

    Zen

    Your example gives an instance of 12 v 2 at 1/2 deck SD with an RC of +2, one extra ace dealt (3 vs 2 at 1/2 deck). One more 10 remains in the undealt deck than expected. Thus the RC should be adjusted upwards by one for this play (adjusted TC of +6), rather than downwards, making the stand decision even more desirable (adjusted TC of +6).

    Am I correct?

    Thanks,

    JL


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