Fuzzy Math: Hitting 12 in negative counts

[Fuzzy Math]

I have been counting in local casinos for a little while now. While heat is nonexistant here (mediocre rules, virtually no black chip play), I have had a very hard time convincing myself to hit my 12 against dealer 5 or 6 when appropriate. I don't feel bad about varying my play on 16v10, 11vA, etc, but hitting a stiff against a 5 or 6 really stands out in my mind.

Normal advice for green-chippers of course would be to move on after 45-60 minutes max in a casino -- but with only 3 playable games in the area, I'll be returning to the same places on a regular basis. In fact, at two of the three playable games I had the same dealer on each of my first two trips. Heat is nonexistant -- but I'd like to make sure it stays that way. One dealer who had seen me play for about 2 hours made a comment when I made use of another playing index for the first time (on a hand that many ploppies misplay anyway).

So, before I go out and incur the wrath of the table for taking the dealer's bust card, I'd like to hear some advice from people with more experience than me. These plays are in the I18, but amongst the very weakest of those 18 plays. Should I just forget those indices and take a tiny hit on my EV? Or am I overreacting? (And also hitting 13v2 and 13v3 -- two more non-BS indices that call for hitting a stiff against a dealer bust card?)

[Cacarulo]

> I have been counting in local casinos for a
> little while now. While heat is nonexistant
> here (mediocre rules, virtually no black
> chip play), I have had a very hard time
> convincing myself to hit my 12 against
> dealer 5 or 6 when appropriate. I don't feel
> bad about varying my play on 16v10, 11vA,
> etc, but hitting a stiff against a 5 or 6
> really stands out in my mind.

If it is a shoe game then you won't lose much by always standing on those plays. Besides, if the rules are mediocre you should be wonging out more often in negative counts.

Sincerely,
Cacarulo

[Fuzzy Math]

> If it is a shoe game then you won't lose
> much by always standing on those plays.
> Besides, if the rules are mediocre you
> should be wonging out more often in negative
> counts.

> Sincerely,
> Cacarulo

This is double-deck. Sorry for the confusion. Wonging the shoe games isn't always practical for a variety of reasons (tables are full, not enough tables open, etc) and the doubledeck generally has the same rules as the shoe games, which means I should have better EV playing them in all counts than what I could get from wonging the shoe games anyway.

What I'm really interested in hearing about are the reactions from the dealer/pit/players when you make one of those plays.

[Cacarulo]

> This is double-deck. Sorry for the
> confusion.

Don't know what the effect is on double-deck. I don't think it's too much since you have a minimum bet out at those TCs.

> Wonging the shoe games isn't
> always practical for a variety of reasons
> (tables are full, not enough tables open,
> etc) and the doubledeck generally has the
> same rules as the shoe games, which means I
> should have better EV playing them in all
> counts than what I could get from wonging
> the shoe games anyway.

But in shoes you can always Wong-Out and avoid playing on negative counts. If you always WO then the impact of those plays is unimportant.

> What I'm really interested in hearing about
> are the reactions from the
> dealer/pit/players when you make one of
> those plays.

With a minimum bet out there is no dealer/pit's reaction. The other players can react if you take the bust card. I do react when someone takes the bust card Of course, it's part of my act.

Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cacarulo

[Radar]

> I have had a very hard time
> convincing myself to hit my 12 against
> dealer 5 or 6 when appropriate. I don't feel

except I hate to do it against even a 4!

[suicyco maniac]

Its just too bad I don't get to make them very much since Like to play with at least one other player and wong out leaving the negative hands for him.

> except I hate to do it against even a 4!

[TwuntyWun]

>...Should I just forget
> those indices and take a tiny hit on my EV?
> Or am I overreacting? (And also hitting 13v2
> and 13v3 -- two more non-BS indices that
> call for hitting a stiff against a dealer
> bust card?)

If you are uncomfortable with them, and if they draw heat in the places you play, then IMHO sure--go ahead and dump them.

You don't have to take the hit in your EV though! Shop around and choose some new, less heat-attracting indices to make up for the lost EV of the ones you drop. The I-18 is a great tool, but it's just that--a tool, not a rule.

You need to play a game that works for you. Design your own game--it will not only keep your EV consistent, but using lesser known indices may make you look more like a ploppy. You may need to add more indices than you take away to make up the difference, but my point is that you don't need to lose EV unless you choose to do so.

TW