Lance: welcome and a simple question

[Lance]

Dear members,

i have just become a new member of this famous forum and i promise i'll try to contribute to this site as much as i can.

For the beginning i have a simple question to you:
I started to learn the Basic Omega II and Adv.Omega II system a few month ago, but i still need to practice until i turn to casino play.
But now i have the chance to join a private bj-game and i don't think i should miss it:

4 people; one of them is alternately the casino; and now the rules:
they play with one or max. two decks which are dealt down to the last card!! S17, no hole card, no SR , no DAS, no soft DD

First i have to say that those people are not my friends and they have actually more money than i have. They know the basic strategy but they do not count.
my questions now are: -what is my edge in this game?
- how can i survive best being the casino? (risk of ruin for 2000? stake)
- is there a simpler strategy i can use for this game before i mastered Omega II ?
- what is my expected win/hour ? (bet spread: 5 to 25?; even more of course if the last cards of the deck are played)

it would be grateful if someone could answer those questions.
I apologize for all grammar and spelling errors due to the fact that it is not my mother tongue.

sincerly
Lance

[Don Schlesinger]

> i have just become a new member of this
> famous forum and i promise i'll try to
> contribute to this site as much as i can.

Welcome! Happy to have you here.

> For the beginning i have a simple question
> to you:
> I started to learn the Basic Omega II and
> Adv.Omega II system a few month ago, but i
> still need to practice until i turn to
> casino play.
> But now i have the chance to join a private
> bj-game and i don't think i should miss it:

> 4 people; one of them is alternately the
> casino; and now the rules:
> they play with one or max. two decks which
> are dealt down to the last card!! S17, no
> hole card, no SR , no DAS, no soft DD.

It matters for our future responses to you if this is a one-deck game or a two-deck game.

> First i have to say that those people are
> not my friends and they have actually more
> money than i have. They know the basic
> strategy but they do not count.
> my questions now are: -what is my edge in
> this game?

It would be tremendous -- the best game in the world!

> - how can i survive best being the casino?
> (risk of ruin for 2000? stake)

There is nothing you can do, strategy-wise, as the casino has fixed rules to follow. But, you need to tell us what stakes the others will play for, and we might be able to tell you how much bank is adequate for you, as the house, to avoid any lucky streaks on the other players' part, while you are the bank
.
> - is there a simpler strategy i can use for
> this game before i mastered Omega II ?

Yes, surely. K-O or hi-lo. With this kind of penetration, just about any count will win great amounts.

> - what is my expected win/hour ? (bet
> spread: 5 to 25?; even more of course if the
> last cards of the deck are played)

As there are no "canned" simulations that deal down the bottom, I'll have to defer to Norm to run some numbers for you.

> it would be grateful if someone could answer
> those questions.
> I apologize for all grammar and spelling
> errors due to the fact that it is not my
> mother tongue.

You did perfectly fine! And, again, welcome to Don's Domain.

Don

[Norm Wattenberger]

Great game - so long as these folks are honest and have no tempers. Although strategy is normally very important in deeply dealt single deck games, the large spread changes things. Any good strategy will work well. No need to bother with AOII.

With a 1 to 5 spread you'd be looking at 3% edge for SD and 2% for SD if this were heads up. With four players and rotating seats this falls off a bit because you can't take as good advantage of dealing to the last card. So make that 2.3% and 1.8%. Overall edge is also lower as you play the casino 25% of the time.

Three things to look out for:

[*]When you see that the cards will run out during a round and the count is high, it gets a bit weird since some part of the hand will be played with a high count and some with a low count. In this case the closer you are to first base the better. Incidentally, no hole card works heavily in your favor here if the hole card comes out after the shuffle. High cards sitting on the table will not be included in the shuffle.[*]There are two methods of shuffling in a game dealt to the last card. If the cards run out and a shuffle occurs during the round, I believe most casinos re-shuffle after the round. But, private games often don't bother. This makes counting a bit more complex.[*]Overall variance and edge depends on how the other players bet when you are dealer. The good news is that with BS play and not great rules, you still have the edge as dealer. But if they all bet max when you have only a small edge, your overall edge is strongly affected and variance is a killer since you are betting three times max to cover their bets.[/list]

Overall a fantastic game.




Serious Blackjack Software

[Lance]

First of all many thanks for your immediate response. I love this forum and it's the best money i've invested for a long time.

I know that this is a fantastic chance but there are a few obstacles left:
first the good news are that these are people who play for 5 to 20 ? at the beginning and as they get more drunk they don't hesitate to play for 100 ? as well. They don't really mind if they lose 1500? (unfortunately i'll do)because it's just a matter of "luck".

the bad news are that they are all friends and they would be really surprised if the newcomer spreads his bets from 1 to 5 units, actually i don't think they know what a bet spread is anyway.
The fact is that i can only increase or lower my bets a few times in a round, double or halve them but no real spreads - there eyes would fall out if they watch me winning 5 hands in a row and lowering my bets afterwards. (i know the pit bosses too)
Perhaps (i'am sure) you have some suggestions or camouflage techniques for this problem.
- Carlson suggests "steaming" - good idea ?

- what is my risk of ruin being the casino and what may i lose if their highest bet is 100? and their stake is about 2000?. (there is some kind of gentlemen's agreement: the casino-player can refuse very high bets, but he shall not do so if he is one of the winners)
- how much money do i have to calculate as my bankroll and might standard deviation kill me ?

I hope i don't have to bother you with this any longer.

good night
Lance

[Norm Wattenberger]

> I know that this is a fantastic chance but
> there are a few obstacles left:
> first the good news are that these are
> people who play for 5 to 20 ? at the
> beginning and as they get more drunk they
> don't hesitate to play for 100 ? as well.

I was going to ask if drinking was involved Having them bet a lot more when you are the casino sounds good. Except that it raises your variance greatly. This is a real problem. Perhaps you can convince them that you can't face three big bets.

> They don't really mind if they lose 1500?
> (unfortunately i'll do)because it's just a
> matter of "luck".

> the bad news are that they are all friends
> and they would be really surprised if the
> newcomer spreads his bets from 1 to 5 units,
> actually i don't think they know what a bet
> spread is anyway.

Ah, this is not what I got from your first post. In SD your bets would normally vary greatly. You can do fine with a lower spread.

> The fact is that i can only increase or
> lower my bets a few times in a round, double
> or halve them but no real spreads - there
> eyes would fall out if they watch me winning
> 5 hands in a row and lowering my bets
> afterwards. (i know the pit bosses too)
> Perhaps (i'am sure) you have some
> suggestions or camouflage techniques for
> this problem.

Well, in SD there aren't that many rounds. And forget winning five hands in a row any more often than a BS player. Counting doesn't slightly approach such magic.

> - Carlson suggests "steaming" -
> good idea ?

Well some sort of steaming is not difficult in a home game with drinkers. This is more akin to Poker. This is also a very unusual case. If in fact they play to the last card, reshuffle during a hand, and then don't reshufffle for the next round; when the round ends, the next round is likely to have a count that is always the opposite of the end of the previous round. So, you can bet heavily or lightly throughout much of the next round. I'm talking off the top of my head here, but this is unusual.

> - what is my risk of ruin being the casino
> and what may i lose if their highest bet is
> 100? and their stake is about 2000?. (there
> is some kind of gentlemen's agreement: the
> casino-player can refuse very high bets, but
> he shall not do so if he is one of the
> winners)
> - how much money do i have to calculate as
> my bankroll and might standard deviation
> kill me ?

Really not possible to calculate without knowing how they are likely to bet when you are the house and what could be allowed. Even then this would be highly complex to determine. Also if you are not an accomplished counter and you intend to take part in the drinking, you could lose your shirt despite the enormous advantage.

Serious Blackjack Software