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Thread: Cacarulo: Composition-dependent indices for Insurance

  1. #14
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Spread 1-12 *NM*


  2. #15
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: I gotta start looking over here more often!

    Great info!

    Now, how does someone who uses the UBZ2 count system and has limited math skills (me, for example), put this into practice?

    I'm only concerned with single deck. I often play two hands and am fascinated with the idea of insuring one hand but not the other.

  3. #16
    Igor
    Guest

    Igor: 11221100-20.

    Can you point me in the right direction? If I wanted to calculate the ten insurance break-even true counts for the above count, how would I?

    I've never been happy about being an idiot and my resignation to this fact has led to some lazy habits. I only know, which isn't much at all, that insurance has a zero expectation at a composition where Q(T) = Q(NT)/2, or the NT/T ratio is exactly 2. Uncounted ranks should be assumed to consist of 1/13 per rank of the total cards in the undealt subset. The problem comes in the two tags that share the low half. A high count can presume an undealt subset that holds fewer Fours and Fives among the low cards, raising the NT/T ratio. I trust departure determination algorithms based upon simulation of the undealt subset (meaning SBA) more than algorithms assuming composition of the undealt subset (meaning BCA and PBA) for this reason.

    Is there a quick and dirty approach to this? Accuracy two places to the right of the decimal is unnecessary. Even one place would be overkill; I would be ecstatic with accuracy to a fifth, a third or even a half of a point.

    Thanks in advance and, although I have always been impressed with your work, I am literally astounded by this development.

    Congratulations on your insight.

  4. #17
    Igor
    Guest

    Igor: One question

    It's also good cover when you're playing two hands.


    Yes, it could very well confound the pit, as they believe you are accepting a proposition bet based upon ten density on one hand, but rejecting the very same wager on another. But this is exactly what you are doing. Or has the civilian concept of insuring only the best hands as a risk-avoidance policy, as opposed to considering only expectation, become the reality? There is, after all, only one ten density.

  5. #18
    Zenfighter
    Guest

    Zenfighter: Re: Your math is correct

    As usual with your figures, on the other hand,
    I?m perfectly aware of the fact that Highlow scores a little higher than Silver-Fox in
    6dks. What I meant when I said that my opinion
    differs a little from yours was about your?s
    statement that "Silver-Fox is a bad count for
    6dks" which is not exactly true, ?cause for
    practical matters is as good as highlow, despite
    the fact that it?s obviously working more for
    1.47$ less per 10000$ bankroll. That goes directly against American utilitarism, I know :-)

    Regards
    Z

    (P.S. Congrats for your nice work above,I?ll keep a hard copy, too.)

  6. #19
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: I gotta start looking over here more often!

    > Great info!

    > Now, how does someone who uses the UBZ2
    > count system and has limited math skills
    > (me, for example), put this into practice?

    > I'm only concerned with single deck. I often
    > play two hands and am fascinated with the
    > idea of insuring one hand but not the other.

    I haven't done the insurance analysis for RC-systems but I'll. I'm interested in doing it for KO but if it works then I'll do it for UBZ2.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  7. #20
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: One question

    > It's also good cover when you're playing
    > two hands. Yes, it could very well
    > confound the pit, as they believe you are
    > accepting a proposition bet based upon ten
    > density on one hand, but rejecting the very
    > same wager on another. But this is exactly
    > what you are doing. Or has the civilian
    > concept of insuring only the best hands as a
    > risk-avoidance policy, as opposed to
    > considering only expectation, become the
    > reality? There is, after all, only one ten
    > density.

    My guess is that the civilian concept is to insure only the best hands. I don't think they understand the risk concept.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  8. #21
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: Your math is correct

    > What I meant when I said that my
    > opinion
    > differs a little from yours was about your?s
    > statement that "Silver-Fox is a bad
    > count for
    > 6dks" which is not exactly true, ?cause
    > for
    > practical matters is as good as highlow,
    > despite
    > the fact that it?s obviously working more
    > for
    > 1.47$ less per 10000$ bankroll. That goes
    > directly against American utilitarism, I
    > know :-)

    I said that it isn't so good which is not the same as saying it's bad. But you're right that I exaggerated a little

    > (P.S. Congrats for your nice work above,I?ll
    > keep a hard copy, too.)

    Thank you!

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  9. #22
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: 11221100-20.

    > Can you point me in the right direction? If
    > I wanted to calculate the ten insurance
    > break-even true counts for the above count,
    > how would I?

    It's not that simple. You can find some info on bjmath where Pete Moss developed an algebraic formula for determining indices based on EORs.

    > I've never been happy about being an idiot
    > and my resignation to this fact has led to
    > some lazy habits. I only know, which isn't
    > much at all, that insurance has a zero
    > expectation at a composition where Q(T) =
    > Q(NT)/2, or the NT/T ratio is exactly 2.
    > Uncounted ranks should be assumed to consist
    > of 1/13 per rank of the total cards in the
    > undealt subset. The problem comes in the two
    > tags that share the low half. A high count
    > can presume an undealt subset that holds
    > fewer Fours and Fives among the low cards,
    > raising the NT/T ratio.

    > I trust departure
    > determination algorithms based upon
    > simulation of the undealt subset (meaning
    > SBA) more than algorithms assuming
    > composition of the undealt subset (meaning
    > BCA and PBA) for this reason.

    You're right here although for insurance, which is a linear function, this is not a problem.

    > Is there a quick and dirty approach to this?
    > Accuracy two places to the right of the
    > decimal is unnecessary. Even one place would
    > be overkill; I would be ecstatic with
    > accuracy to a fifth, a third or even a half
    > of a point.

    See Bjmath.

    > Thanks in advance and, although I have
    > always been impressed with your work, I am
    > literally astounded by this development.

    You're welcome.

    > Congratulations on your insight.

    Thank you!

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  10. #23
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: I gotta start looking over here more often!

    >I gotta start looking over here more often!

    You got something better to do?! :-)

    > I'm only concerned with single deck. I often
    > play two hands and am fascinated with the
    > idea of insuring one hand but not the other.

    And imagine the reaction when the hand you insure is 4,2 while you pass on insurance for 10,10!!

    Don

  11. #24
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: One question

    > My guess is that the civilian concept is to
    > insure only the best hands. I don't think
    > they understand the risk concept.

    Actually, this is somewhat important to point out, although it must be obvious: these are all risk-averse indices, as well as composition-dependent indices. When Griffin or Wong give us different indices (indeed, different basic strategy) for various two-card holdings, all of that work is purely ev-maximizing. Clearly, this is a different concept.

    Don

  12. #25
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: One question

    > Actually, this is somewhat important to
    > point out, although it must be obvious:
    > these are all risk-averse indices, as well
    > as composition-dependent indices. When
    > Griffin or Wong give us different indices
    > (indeed, different basic strategy) for
    > various two-card holdings, all of that work
    > is purely ev-maximizing. Clearly, this is a
    > different concept.

    No, my indices are all ev-maximizing. I haven't found any RA-index better than the ev-maximizing indices. Maybe I am wrong in my assumptions.
    I know MathProf is working on that so we'll have to wait for his paper.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  13. #26
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: One question

    > No, my indices are all ev-maximizing. I
    > haven't found any RA-index better than the
    > ev-maximizing indices. Maybe I am wrong in
    > my assumptions.

    OK. This is a tricky concept. But, I suppose they can be both.

    Don


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