LoneWolf: J. Morgan

[LoneWolf]

In your book you suggest against playing the "pairplus" wager, because it's a sucker's bet. It has been my experience thus far, that if you don't play the "pairplus" bet, the ploppies & dealers talk to you as if your the biggest idiot playing 3CP. I'm always reminded that I'm losing money by not playing the pairplus wager especially after I catch a pair, straight or flush. So, in order to avoid this unwanted attention I flat bet the pairplus wager.

How do you handle this situation ?

What is your recommendation ?

LoneWolf

[98%]

I realize this question was directed at J. Morgan, the resident expert, but I figure I can take a crack at it based on some of my experiences:

Let them think you're an idiot! I, too, have been branded an idiot by the dealer and other players. One time, a dealer told another player at the table who was new to the game that, whatever she did, she should not listen to me because I play like a crazy person. In truth, the dealer will hound you to bet the pair plus because said dealer wants a big tip if and when you hit one of the big hands.

Whether to play the pair plus at all really depends on the pay schedule the game offers. The optimal is 1/4/6/30/40 for pair, flush, straight, three of a kind and straight flush. However, a lot of games will drop the flush to 3 and/or the three of a kind to 25. The loss of one unit on the flush is huge - it raises the house edge against you by about 5% (which more than doubles it!) on the pair plus bet.

If, however, you find a game with the optimal pair plus pay schedule, your decision to play it will depend on what sort of edge you estimate you are getting on the ante bet. If you're getting one card perfectly, your edge on the ante is slightly bigger than the house's edge against you on the pair plus. In other words, if you were betting equal amounts on both, you're doing just slightly better than breaking even (slightly better than a .5% edge) and your variance is really big.

I play this game quite frequently and, unless I'm getting better than perfect one card information, I almost never bet the pair plus.

'Beyond Counting' does mention one situation which is quite favorable - when another player will play your pair plus while you just play the ante. This looks good, you get no strange looks, you don't have to explain yourself over and over ("That's a sucker bet." "I don't want to lose twice as fast." "I never get any good hands so what's the point?" "If I win, I'll only have to pay my brother back anyway." "I want to see how the table is going first.") While most dealers and/or players will say something once, I've encountered some dealers who will get into it with you ON EVERY SINGLE HAND if you don't bet the pair plus. Not only is this annoying, it slows things down. It's even worse when a boss comes over and gives you a hard time ("Just betting the ante? The money's in the pair plus, don't you know anything?") But a player can be placated by allowing him to bet on your spot. Sometimes players just slide me a stack of chips and tell me how much to bet once they see I'm not betting the pair plus. Sometimes you'll have to make the suggestion as a response to the player's inability to accept your not betting the pair plus. The added bonus is that most players will kick you down a little when they hit a big hand. I had it happen once where a player would give me a red chip each time he hit a flush or a straight. 'We' never did get a bigger hand, but I imagine he would have given me a green chip or two or three in that case.

One final anecdote may be illustrative. I was playing and there was another player at the table. He was betting both bets all along and I was just betting the ante. He questioned why I only played the ante and I explained that I didn't only play the ante but that I waited for the time to be right to make my pair plus bet (this is in keeping with the 'logic' of hot slot machines and feeling when a blackjack is going to be dealt, etc.). So, after about 20 minutes, I finally put out a pair plus wager and, as luck would have it, got a straight. After that, this fellow decided I was on to something and started doing the same. I don't know whether or not he ever had any success with that, but I have my doubts.

[LoneWolf]

You're input is more than welcome, I can use all the help I can get. Thanks your for this wonderful response.

I have tried the "you can play my Pairplus and we'll split the winnings" response, only to get more negative feedback from ploppies like: "you must be out of your mind, I'm not spliting my winnings".

So, now he/she has pissed me off twice, 1) I'm crazy for not playing the Pairplus wager. 2) I'm crazy for wanting to share in the Pairplus winnings if he places a bet in my circle.

I'll try the other tricks of the trade that you mentioned.

One thing for share, Advantage Play is not easy ! It comes with too many road blocks.

LoneWolf

PS. I've noticed the Pit Bosses in Ceasar's AC's watch the 3CP tables like an eagle looking for a kill. They keep a closer eye on these tables than they do the BJ tables. I don't know if this has always been the case or this is something recent because of the Full Court Press James G. did on Ceasar's LV.

[98%]

Don't try to make any financial arrangements. Just tell the person that he or she may bet your spot. That is what I have always done. If they decide to cut you in on the winnings, that's great; if not, you're still getting a heat shield out of the deal.

If I may ramble a bit...

There is a principle in psychology known as the reciprocity principle. In short, it states that humans are motivated to reciprocate favors or gifts or what have you. For example, when someone buys you dinner, you insist on leaving the tip or when someone gives you a ride to the airport, you insist on feeding his dog when he is out of town. This is a principle ingrained within people from a young age in nearly every culture on the planet (something which marketers and cons exploit shamelessly) and, in fact, those who do not reciprocate kind acts are looked upon with disdain. So, by doing a person the 'favor' of allowing them to bet on your pair plus spot, you often incur within that person a need to reciprocate your kind deed if and when he or she hits a large payoff (the 'I Told You So' principle not withstanding :-]).

As for Three Card Heat - I haven't seen it, even at Caesar's Las Vegas and this includes a time where I folded an ace in front of a boss in a game where they expose the player's cards before tossing them away (a move I do not generally recommend, by the way). In fact, the last time I was at Caesar's I was chastised by the boss for not betting the pair plus.