Don's
Domain Chat: Lance Humble
Don's Domain Chat

Fred Renzey
Fred Renzey, author of Blackjack Bluebook II: The Simplest Winning Strategies Ever Published

October 10, 2004

Sun Oct 3
20:12:51 2004:Bettie Login:

Sun Oct 3
20:19:54 2004:Viktor Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:22:24
2004:Fred_Renzey Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:23:43
2004:Fred_Renzey Hi Viktor and
Bettie

Sun Oct 3
20:24:22 2004:Fred_Renzey Are we all set up and ready
to go?

Sun Oct 3
20:24:49 2004:Bettie Yep, we just wait for the gang to
show up.

Sun Oct 3
20:25:05 2004:Viktor Hey Fred!

Sun Oct 3 20:26:09
2004:Fred_Renzey OK, I'm here. Hi
Viktor.

Sun Oct 3
20:27:16 2004:Viktor Poeple don't usually login right
at 6. In the meantime, how are book sales?

Sun Oct 3 20:28:00 2004:Matt
Login:

Sun Oct 3
20:28:11 2004:Viktor Hey Matt!

Sun Oct 3 20:28:17 2004:Matt
hello

Sun Oct 3
20:28:25 2004:chgobjpro Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:28:32
2004:Fred_Renzey Book is moving impressively well.
First 4000 copies of BB II went in 16 months. Just got another
6000.

Sun Oct 3
20:28:35 2004:Viktor Hey chgo! Good to see
you.

Sun Oct 3
20:28:45 2004:chgobjpro Hi All

Sun Oct 3 20:28:51
2004:Viktor Fred_Renzey Good,
good.

Sun Oct 3
20:29:02 2004:Matt Fred, thanks for writing the book...
it sparked my interest in bj

Sun Oct 3 20:29:04 2004:Fred_Renzey Hi
Chgo

Sun Oct 3
20:29:48 2004:Matt started to learn the Mentor count,
but got sidetracked...

Sun Oct 3 20:29:53 2004:Fred_Renzey Matt,
I hope it set things down in an easy-to-absorb
fashion

Sun Oct 3
20:30:21 2004:Matt yeah, the writing style and content
is top-notch!!

Sun
Oct 3 20:30:26 2004:Boardwalker
Login:

Sun Oct 3
20:30:34 2004:Viktor Hey
Boardwalker!

Sun Oct
3 20:30:51 2004:Boardwalker Hi

Sun Oct 3 20:31:22
2004:Boardwalker Fred I've enjoyed your
books

Sun Oct 3
20:31:29 2004:Fred_Renzey Nice to meet you,
Boardwalker. Is that an AC handle?

Sun Oct 3 20:31:47 2004:Boardwalker
Yes

Sun Oct 3
20:31:48 2004:Viktor No, he's a
pirate.

Sun Oct 3
20:31:52 2004:Viktor Damn. Too slow.

Sun Oct 3
20:33:00 2004:Matt Say, Fred, I'm about to get back
into learning bj, and I was wondering whether you suggest either the
Mentor count or the Unbalanced Zen?

SunOct 3 20:33:37 2004:Fred_Renzey Board,
glad you liked the books. If you have any questions about anything
in them, fire away.

Sun Oct 3 20:33:47 2004:Matt
I'm new to the game

Sun Oct 3 20:34:11 2004:Radar
Login:

Sun Oct 3
20:34:34 2004:Mickey Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:34:36
2004:Radar Hi all

Sun Oct 3 20:34:46 2004:Viktor Hello
Radar and Mickey

Sun
Oct 3 20:34:53 2004:Mickey hi
everyone

Sun Oct 3
20:34:58 2004:Matt hi

Sun Oct 3 20:35:14
2004:Boardwalker I have some questions on the Mentor
Count. First, inyour early book the index number for insurance was
+12. Now you give a number of +13. Why the
change?

Sun Oct 3
20:35:57 2004:Fred_Renzey Unbalanced Zen will be easier
because of the "no-true-count-conversion." Mentor will
increase the dollar/hour expected earnings by about 8%
though.

Sun Oct 3
20:36:28 2004:Matt Thanks, Fred, that's what I was
wondering about

Sun
Oct 3 20:38:14 2004:Radar Pardon me, although I have
your book ordered I haven't read it yet, what is the main difference
between KO and KISS III?

Sun Oct 3 20:38:41 2004:Fred_Renzey Matt,
the change is a small "tune-up" and just slightly more accurate. It
eliminates the times when you'd be taking insurance at a "break-even"
expectation.

Sun Oct
3 20:38:55 2004:Boardwalker Are the Mentor index nos.
risk adverse?

Sun Oct
3 20:39:26 2004:Parker Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:39:44 2004:Matt
Ok, thank you, Fred. I did notice in your chart that the tag numbers
are nearly identical

Sun Oct 3 20:39:44 2004:Radar Evening
Parker!

Sun Oct 3
20:40:04 2004:Parker Hi, all. Hello,
Fred

Sun Oct 3
20:40:06 2004:Viktor Hey Parker! Matt and Fred are
talking UBZ vs. Mentor if you want to jump in.


Sun Oct 3
20:40:10 2004:Fred_Renzey Radar, KO is a "+4 true"
calibrated count, where the KISS is a "+2 true" calibrated
count.

Sun Oct 3
20:40:31 2004:Fred_Renzey Hi
Parker

Sun Oct 3
20:40:39 2004:chgobjpro Fred, one of the more positive
thing I learned from your book is to gain some of the edge of
participating in other players' advantage hands who choose not to
take partial or full advantage themselves.

Sun Oct 3 20:40:51
2004:Cardkountr Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:41:01
2004:Viktor Hello Card!

Sun Oct 3 20:41:20
2004:Cardkountr Hiya Viktor, and
everyone!!

Sun Oct 3
20:41:30 2004:chgobjpro You may want to expand on that
for the group

Sun Oct
3 20:42:25 2004:Boardwalker Typical bet ramps double
bets for 1/2 % increase in advantage. The Mentor ramp increases by
double ormore for 1/8% increases. Why?

Sun Oct 3 20:42:53
2004:Matt I'm quite new and all, but I'm not so sure
that the "hand interaction" stuff isn't a red flag to the
dealer and PCs

Sun Oct 3 20:43:55
2004:Fred_Renzey Chgo, "Hand Interaction" is probably
the most ignored facet of advantage blackjack play. Using it is most
critical for basic strategy players who are stuck at a small
disadvantage. For them, it's a must. For advantage players, it can
help increase their

Sun Oct 3 20:44:39
2004:chgobjpro It works best for me when someone at the
table is steaming and runs out of chips

Sun Oct 3 20:44:54
2004:Boardwalker I take advantage of hand interaction
whenever available.

Sun Oct 3 20:45:05 2004:chgobjpro nothing
like a good partner

Sun Oct 3 20:47:56 2004:Fred_Renzey
Board, Bluebook II betting ramps were scaled assuming a 1.75 deck
cutoff in a six deck game. That lowers the frequency of occasions
where the player will have say, a 1% edge to bet into. It also
lowers the standard deviation at the same time. The
"catch-

Sun Oct 3
20:48:20 2004:Matt How are the "yields" calculated on
page 194? Is this like SCORE? Is it a function of PE, BC, and
IC?

Sun Oct 3
20:50:06 2004:norm Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:50:47
2004:Fred_Renzey Matt, the yields on page 194 weren't
"calculated," but simulated playing each count system for
500 million hands. It's not like SCORE because it ignored the fact
that the better systems could bet a little more while facing the same
risk of ruin. It merely yielded a net percentage advantage for each
count making identically sized bets.

Sun Oct 3 20:53:15 2004:Matt Ah, ok,
thanks... were there ace side-counts with AOII and HI-opt
II?

Sun Oct 3 20:53:50 2004:Fred_Renzey Chgo,
Hand Interaction in the form of doubling for others comes in handy
when a progressionist is at his max bet and doesn't want to double
that.

Sun Oct 3
20:54:14 2004:chgobjpro good
thought

Sun Oct 3
20:55:13 2004:norm Interesting. An advantage of playing
with progression players

Sun Oct 3 20:55:55
2004:Fred_Renzey Matt, back to KO vs. KISS -- to
achieve a +2 true normalized count, the KISS has to ignore a half
rank of cards (ala Red 7). That may seem cumbersome, but works out a
tad better overall.

Sun Oct 3 20:57:04 2004:98%
Login:

Sun Oct 3 20:57:52 2004:Fred_Renzey
Board; to get back to the Mentor betting ramp. The catch-up strategy
to poor penetration is a faster betting ramp, such that the SD
remains the same.

Sun Oct 3 20:58:14
2004:Boardwalker Thanks

Sun Oct 3 20:58:21
2004:Mickey Logout:

Sun Oct 3 20:58:59 2004:Matt Fred, the
Mentor count is sounding good since I have to play 4/6 or maybe
4.25/6 decks

Sun Oct 3 20:59:04 2004:Fred_Renzey Norm;
There's also a hand interaction edge in playing with ploppies who
"over-double."

Sun Oct 3 21:00:41
2004:chgobjpro Matt. Around my home turf the BJ is so
bad that to play the game for profit and not for entertain you must
ONLY backcount the games

Sun Oct 3 21:00:44
2004:Fred_Renzey Matt, I think Don ran some initial
SCORE numbers on the Mentor and it performed highly. Not in time to
make it into BJA III though.

Sun Oct 3 21:01:30 2004:Matt yeah
chicago, here too (in WA). Bad pen.

Sun Oct 3 21:01:44
2004:Parker I ran some sims on Mentor when I first got
Fred's book. I was impressed.

Sun Oct 3 21:02:10 2004:Fred_Renzey Norm;
that is to get in on ploppies' doubles which are incorrect plays, but
still carry an edge nonetheless -- such as with 9 vs. 7
etc.

Sun Oct 3 21:02:15 2004:chgobjpro It
would seem that Mentor is more geared to shoe games? b/c the ACE is
included in the count

Sun Oct 3
21:02:40 2004:Matt Fred, I'm intrigued by Mentor. Also
intrigued by Brh

Sun Oct 3 21:02:53 2004:Matt Good stuff,
methinks.

Sun Oct 3
21:04:13 2004:Fred_Renzey Chgo and Matt; Mentor is a
good all-around count because it counts the Ace with half the weight
of the 10's. I don't know what the card tags are for
BRH.

Sun Oct 3
21:05:33 2004:Matt there are 3 brh systems... I'm kinda
intrigued by one which is an unbalanced count with an ace side
count

Sun Oct 3
21:05:42 2004:Boardwalker Fred, on p.82 of your book in
The Rule Variation Table; shouldn't in the surrender items stand A/6
apply to 8-decks and hit A/6 apply to 1-deck? The reverse of what you
show.

Sun Oct 3
21:05:47 2004:Fred_Renzey Norm; another good hand
interaction with ploppies is to help them double 11 vs. A in shoe
games.

Sun Oct 3
21:05:53 2004:Matt but not too sure about the ace
side-count thing...

Sun Oct 3 21:06:30 2004:Parker IIRC, all
Brh systems are unbalanced

Sun Oct 3 21:08:06 2004:Radar
Logout:

Sun Oct 3
21:08:10 2004:Fred_Renzey Board; those two line items
in the rule variations were intended to show how much more valuable
surrender becomes as the game grows worse.

Sun Oct 3 21:09:27
2004:Fred_Renzey Parker and Matt; What are the card
tags for BRH's best system?

Sun Oct 3 21:09:58 2004:Matt I think very
close to AOII

Sun Oct
3 21:10:28 2004:norm Logout:

Sun Oct 3 21:10:45
2004:Boardwalker Brett Harris the inventor of the BRH
systems makes a point that he doesn't count 9's because that reduces
the insurance efficiency.

Sun Oct 3 21:11:54 2004:Matt 2-10 is
1,1,2,2,2,1,0,0,-2 and ace is 0. (there is an ace side count) That
one is Brh II

Sun Oct
3 21:12:38 2004:Parker Brh 1 is Wong's halves (doubled)
with the 9 not counted

Sun Oct 3 21:13:18 2004:Fred_Renzey
Board; Regarding basic strategy surrender -- w/ single deck & S17,
only two hands should be surrendered. W/8 decks and H17, you should
surrender seven.

Sun
Oct 3 21:14:07 2004:Boardwalker It should be noted
that the BRH systems in general are true
counted.

Sun Oct 3
21:15:29 2004:davinci Login:

Sun Oct 3 21:15:54
2004:Parker Yes, Brett feels that true-counted
unbalanced systems are the most powerful. I tend to
agree.

Sun Oct 3
21:16:32 2004:Fred_Renzey Parker; that makes the BRH I
a 98.7% BC. Pretty good.

Sun Oct 3 21:19:06 2004:Boardwalker Fred;
do you have any more books in the works?

Sun Oct 3 21:19:54
2004:Fred_Renzey Board; No more books for me. The
poker book and blackjack book were enough.

Sun Oct 3 21:20:48 2004:Matt
Fred, I enjoyed your style of writing: very fun and lively, not at
all dry

Sun Oct 3
21:22:10 2004:DonS Login:

Sun Oct 3 21:22:26 2004:DonS
Hi, guys.

Sun Oct 3
21:22:31 2004:Cardkountr Hi Don

Sun Oct 3 21:22:35
2004:Viktor Hey Don!

Sun Oct 3 21:22:39 2004:DonS Welcome to
Don's Domain, Fred, and thank you for hosting
tonight.

Sun Oct 3
21:22:44 2004:Boardwalker Hi, Don

Sun Oct 3 21:22:46
2004:Fred_Renzey Matt; BRH works out to a 91.2% BC.
Since Ace-ignored counts are usually designed to play your hands
better, it seems not all that useful to do that with an unbalanced
count.

Sun Oct 3
21:23:02 2004:chgobjpro Fred's best quote..."the GRIND
that it is, we still love it."

Sun Oct 3 21:23:38 2004:Fred_Renzey Hi
Don; a pleasure to be on the same line with
you.

Sun Oct 3
21:23:52 2004:Matt yeah, maybe better for DD or
SD

Sun Oct 3 21:23:55 2004:DonS Hope you're
having fun.

Sun Oct 3 21:24:09 2004:Matt for shoes,
it seems like Mentor is a winner

Sun Oct 3 21:24:52
2004:Fred_Renzey Matt; Mentor is the nuts for shoes and
double decks if you don't want to mess with an Ace side
count.

Sun Oct 3
21:25:12 2004:Matt OK, Fred, I'm sold on
it

Sun Oct 3
21:26:00 2004:Parker The two counts most similar to
Mentor are Zen and RPC. In the sims I ran, Mentor outperformed them
both by small margins.

Sun Oct 3 21:26:05 2004:Fred_Renzey Chgo:
and you know, sometimes it can become a "sadistic"
grind!

Sun Oct 3
21:26:36 2004:Matt masochistic grind, you
mean?

Sun Oct 3
21:27:01 2004:DonS Depends on who's punishing whom!
:-)

Sun Oct 3
21:27:13 2004:Matt ha

Sun Oct 3 21:27:34
2004:Fred_Renzey Chgo; Right you are -- masochistic for
the player -- sadistic for the house!

Sun Oct 3 21:27:49 2004:chgobjpro If you
believe the numbers you have to hang in there, b/c it WILL
come.

Sun Oct 3 21:27:55 2004:Matt Don, I'm new
here, but wanted to say thanks for writing BJA3... very impressive!
I've only read 25% or so, but it's great stuff

Sun Oct 3 21:28:25 2004:DonS Thank you.
Take your time; it'll keep!

Sun Oct 3 21:29:05 2004:Fred_Renzey Don;
Chgo and I were just reminiscing a negative swing I've endured
recently. We play the same turf a lot.

Sun Oct 3 21:29:11
2004:Matt yes indeed, with that lovely hardcover
binding

Sun Oct 3
21:29:30 2004:DonS How many hours,
Fred?

Sun Oct 3
21:29:44 2004:Boardwalker Don, is the paperback still
expected by the end of the year?

Sun Oct 3 21:29:58 2004:DonS Matt: Yes, I
love the binding. Kudos to Viktor for the
production.

Sun Oct
3 21:30:06 2004:chgobjpro I played 600 hours this year.
It's been quite positive.

Sun Oct 3 21:30:31 2004:DonS Board: I'd
guess January. Just completed spectacular new appendix. It will be
talked about!

Sun Oct
3 21:30:53 2004:Boardwalker Geat.

Sun Oct 3 21:30:54
2004:Fred_Renzey Don: the neg. swing was 200 hours --
120 max. bets lost in shoe play.

Sun Oct 3 21:30:59 2004:DonS So who had
the negative swing, Fred?

Sun Oct 3 21:31:13 2004:chgobjpro I have
an 8 year monthly graph. It's really interesting, THE
SWINGS

Sun Oct 3
21:31:35 2004:98% What fraction of your months are
losing months?

Sun
Oct 3 21:31:38 2004:Fred_Renzey Don: It was yours
truly -- sorry to say.

Sun Oct 3 21:31:50 2004:DonS Fred: Still
maybe 20% chance of losing after 200 hours. Happens. Too
bad.

Sun Oct 3 21:32:14 2004:DonS Chi: BJA3,
Chapter 12. 'nuf said.

Sun Oct 3 21:32:48 2004:DonS
How many hours in a month?

Sun Oct 3 21:34:01
2004:Boardwalker Fred, Brett Harris calculated a 98.8%
betting correlation for BRHI

Sun Oct 3 21:34:16 2004:Fred_Renzey Don;
Once it really got sinister, Arnold's Job-like lament really kept
playing over in my brain (You won't win). Finally though, the
dealers lost their supernatural powers.

Sun Oct 3 21:35:04 2004:DonS
20% is a fairly large number. Never fun when it pops up,
though.

Sun Oct 3
21:35:21 2004:DonS What would you say, in units, are
your hourly EV and SD?

Sun Oct 3 21:35:53 2004:Matt I sometimes
wonder if at these small joints around here if they
cheat...

Sun Oct 3
21:36:19 2004:Matt I wonder if you got cheated, like do
they ever short the shoes?

Sun Oct 3 21:36:26 2004:Fred_Renzey
Board: Forgot already, but if the BRH I is the one with the side Ace
count, then the 98.8% must include the Ace adjusted
in.

Sun Oct 3 21:37:21 2004:Matt the BRH II
has the ace side count

Sun Oct 3 21:37:26
2004:Boardwalker BRHI includes the aces

Sun Oct 3
21:41:24 2004:Fred_Renzey Board and Matt: Agree then --
1,2,2,3,2,1,0,0,-2,-2 equals a BC of 98.7%.

Sun Oct 3 21:42:55
2004:Parker Right - that's Brh 1

Sun Oct 3 21:43:27
2004:Matt like wong's halves

Sun Oct 3 21:43:28 2004:DonS
Just the RPC with an extra 1 for the 5, to unbalance the
count.

Sun Oct 3 21:43:56 2004:DonS Yes, also,
but the 9 doesn't count as -1, so it's unbalanced.

Sun Oct 3
21:50:02 2004:chgobjpro Don, quick ? about charts
chapter 10. When talk about EV, is that the same as the column,
W/100 $

Sun Oct 3 21:50:05 2004:Cardkountr Hey
Don, I completed my set of BJ Forums

Sun Oct 3 21:50:32 2004:DonS
Card: Good for you!

Sun Oct 3 21:50:53 2004:DonS Chi:
Yes.

Sun Oct 3 21:50:56 2004:Matt Don, about
the SCORE comparisons. chapter 10, I think. what is the bet and
spread?

Sun Oct 3 21:51:24
2004:DonS That and SCORE are identical for optimal
betting and close for "practical betting."

Sun Oct 3 21:51:40
2004:Matt sorry, I meant what is the unit
$?

Sun Oct 3 21:52:06 2004:chgobjpro I
think...$25

Sun Oct
3 21:52:21 2004:DonS Unit for
what?

Sun Oct 3
21:52:28 2004:DonS Varies every line.

Sun Oct 3
21:52:58 2004:DonS Unit can be found precisely by
dividing Kelly bank (in units) into $10,000.

Sun Oct 3 21:53:14
2004:Matt ok, 25 bucks as a unit seems about right,
seeing how the SCOREs were $50-60

Sun Oct 3 21:53:33
2004:DonS Or, use the smallest number at the top of the
bet ramps on the left. They start with your (rounded) one-unit
bet.

Sun Oct 3 21:53:54
2004:Matt ok, thanks

Sun Oct 3 21:54:29 2004:DonS
Sorry, Matt. You mentioned Chapter 10. My answer pertained to that.
But, SCORE units varied in the same manner.

Sun Oct 3 21:55:54
2004:Matt Hey, has anyone seen "The Hot Shoe"? That was
very impressive

Sun Oct 3 22:02:04 2004:Fred_Renzey In
the 70's, I was reading Revere's BJ as a Business and kept coming
across Braun's name of IBM Corp. I live in Chicago, so I called IBM
and asked for Julian Braun. He picked up the phone and we talked
perhaps a dozen times after that. Another great and brilliant pioneer
that will be missed.

Sun Oct 3
22:02:31 2004:98% Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:02:55
2004:Matt That's great that Braun was so
accessible!

Sun Oct 3 22:03:30 2004:Matt Does Thorp
still play bj?

Sun Oct 3 22:03:50 2004:DonS Naw. A few
hundred million will do that to you. :-)

Sun Oct 3 22:03:52
2004:Boardwalker He plays the market

Sun Oct 3
22:05:23 2004:Matt It was interesting to see Thorp in
"The Hot Shoe"... he seemed a little nutty

Sun Oct 3 22:05:54
2004:DonS We should all be so nutty.
:-)

Sun Oct 3 22:06:38 2004:Matt some facial
tics and odd mannerisms... but brilliant, of course, that
Thorp

Sun Oct 3 22:06:57 2004:Cardkountr i
liked his story of the math synposium he spoke at in DC where the
room was filled with gamblers

Sun Oct 3 22:06:58
2004:Matt ha, ha

Sun Oct 3 22:07:31
2004:Matt yeah, that was a good one,
Card!

Sun Oct 3 22:08:30 2004:Cardkountr Don
did David ever get with you to tape your segment?

Sun Oct 3
22:08:49 2004:DonS Yup. Last May in LV. A couple of
hours!!

Sun Oct 3
22:08:51 2004:Matt maybe the facial tics and mannerisms
are just cover ploys...

Sun Oct 3 22:08:55 2004:Fred_Renzey All;
When to realize that Thorp invented his level 11 count system (100%
BC) in the 1960's, you know he had to have a pentium chip in his
brain.

Sun Oct 3 22:08:59 2004:DonS Hard to say
how much he'll be able to use.

Sun Oct 3 22:09:19
2004:Bettie The natives seem to be restless, are there
any more questions for Fred?

Sun Oct 3 22:09:21
2004:Cardkountr do you know if it's included in the hot
shoe dvd's he now sells?

Sun Oct 3 22:09:30 2004:Viktor Not
yet.

Sun Oct 3
22:09:56 2004:Bettie We'll definitely be letting
everyone know when the new Hot Shoe DVDs are ready! Looks like as
early as one month, maybe two.

Sun Oct 3 22:10:09 2004:Matt Cardkountr,
yes, Thorp relates that story in "The Hot Shoe" which I
bought recently from here.

Sun Oct 3 22:10:15
2004:DonS When the old stock sells out, he's going to
release the new version.

Sun Oct 3 22:10:24 2004:Matt
I didn't know there's a new version

Sun Oct 3 22:11:04 2004:DonS
He'll do some editing to bring a few things up to date and then add
the interview with me.

Sun Oct 3 22:11:20 2004:Matt
really? cool!

Sun Oct 3 22:11:29 2004:DonS Fred, any
plans for another book?

Sun Oct 3 22:12:45
2004:chgobjpro Fred thanks, gotta go. See you
soon.

Sun Oct 3 22:12:54 2004:Fred_Renzey Don:
No, the poker book and blackjack book took enough of my gambling time
away from me. I'll probably stand pat.

Sun Oct 3 22:13:11 2004:DonS
Fair enough.

Sun Oct
3 22:13:32 2004:Fred_Renzey Chgo; Thanks for sayin'
"Hi".

Sun Oct 3 22:14:13 2004:Matt All the best
to you, Fred... I hope the cards turn for you -- or have they
already?

Sun Oct 3 22:14:52 2004:Boardwalker Fred,
do you go to the Chicago BJ dinners?

Sun Oct 3 22:14:53
2004:Bettie Fred_Renzey, you should put together a book
of some of your best articles. It's a good way to write a book
without all the extra writing - just ask Don! And I Nelson
Rose!

Sun Oct 3
22:15:32 2004:Fred_Renzey Matt; For now, things are
going back uphill again -- but you NEVER know. With any count
system, it's still a gamble.

Sun Oct 3 22:16:03 2004:Cardkountr also
that's exactly what Barfarkel did with his trip reports from
BJ21

Sun Oct 3
22:16:04 2004:DonS Now, Fred: It's an investment with
fluctuations. :-)

Sun Oct 3 22:16:37 2004:davinci Fred I
play DD games using UBZ 2 would using mentor give me any appreciable
extra edge?

Sun Oct 3 22:16:41 2004:Bettie
Cardkountr, have a copy right here in front of me - I can't wait to
dig in!

Sun Oct 3 22:17:20
2004:Matt fred, do you recommend (or practice) any
other forms of AP for bj?

Sun Oct 3 22:17:22
2004:Parker I also have a copy, Bettie - it's a fun
read

Sun Oct 3
22:17:41 2004:Cardkountr did you just get it? he told
me just a few days ago that he was sending me
one

Sun Oct 3
22:18:08 2004:Viktor I think they're having problems
with the mail. We never got our first copy.

Sun Oct 3 22:18:39
2004:Parker I got mine a couple of weeks
ago

Sun Oct 3 22:18:56 2004:Fred_Renzey
Davinci: Page 194 of my book shows Mentor outperforming UBZ II .82%
to .73% in double deck play with a 2-1-6 spread.

Sun Oct 3 22:20:29
2004:chgobjpro Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:20:31
2004:Cardkountr my understanding is that they won't be
on the market for another month or two, you can check the website
....i think it's you've got heat.com

Sun Oct 3 22:21:04
2004:Fred_Renzey Matt: Other than back counting and
tracking the first half deck out of the shoe, that's it for me in
BJ.

Sun Oct 3
22:21:31 2004:Bettie Yes,
http://www.youvegotheat.com/

Sun Oct 3 22:21:38 2004:Fred_Renzey Matt:
Oh -- and a little hand interaction when the opportunity presents
itself.

Sun Oct 3
22:21:54 2004:Matt oh, yeah, I'll have to try
that

Sun Oct 3
22:22:11 2004:Matt did you mean
shuffle-tracking?

Sun
Oct 3 22:22:24 2004:DonS I'm gonna runs, guys. Thanks
again Fred for being a wonderful host.

Sun Oct 3 22:22:48
2004:Fred_Renzey Don; Thanks for being here
Don.

Sun Oct 3
22:23:19 2004:Matt thanks Don

Sun Oct 3 22:23:26
2004:Cardkountr Seeya Don

Sun Oct 3 22:23:31
2004:Cardkountr have a good night

Sun Oct 3 22:23:37 2004:DonS
Good night everyone.

Sun Oct 3 22:23:40 2004:Viktor We need to
run too. The casinos of the east Valley await our
offensive.

Sun Oct 3
22:23:41 2004:Boardwalker Bye Don

Sun Oct 3 22:23:48
2004:Viktor See ya D-Man.

Sun Oct 3 22:23:49
2004:Bettie Fred, thanks for sticking around when we
all got into the chitchat portion of the evening. That usually
happens after the first hour or so.

Sun Oct 3 22:23:58 2004:DonS
Logout:

Sun Oct 3
22:23:59 2004:Cardkountr hit em hard and often
Viktor!!

Sun Oct 3
22:24:17 2004:Fred_Renzey All: There are other cute
little hand interaction techniques you can use with other players.
For example:

Sun Oct
3 22:24:43 2004:Viktor Everyone feel free to hang out
as long as you want. just remember we are going to archive this
chat.

Sun Oct 3
22:24:50 2004:Viktor Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:25:23
2004:Fred_Renzey Suppose the player next to you has 19
against a 10 for say, $25. Many players will think they have a loser
when in fact the 19 is an 8-to-7 favorite.

Sun Oct 3 22:25:27
2004:Bettie Thanks Fred for a very lively chat! Thanks
to all for your questions! Good night!

Sun Oct 3 22:25:29
2004:Bettie Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:25:38 2004:Parker I also
have to run. Thanks for hosting, Fred. Good night
all.

Sun Oct 3
22:25:44 2004:Parker Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:26:52
2004:Boardwalker Time to say good night. Bye. Thanks
Fred.

Sun Oct 3
22:27:03 2004:Fred_Renzey So toss the man $10 or $15
and say, "I got a feelin' you're gonna win this one. I'll
betcha' $15 bucks." If he likes the "hedge" bet,
you've got a 7% edge.

Sun Oct 3 22:27:50 2004:Matt that's
pretty clever

Sun Oct
3 22:28:46 2004:Fred_Renzey Matt; you can also do this
with 18 against an 8. You're a 6-to-5 favorite. Just make sure he
understands that a push is "no bet."

Sun Oct 3 22:28:49
2004:Boardwalker Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:29:31 2004:Matt
ok, I'll give it a shot

Sun Oct 3 22:30:08 2004:davinci Fred how
much more difficult would you say that mentor is to use compared to
UBZ 2

Sun Oct 3
22:30:22 2004:Matt I wonder, though, how the dealers
and pit feel about 'hand interaction'

Sun Oct 3 22:30:49 2004:Matt
they seem a little uptight about chips changing hands when I play with
a friend

Sun Oct 3 22:31:45 2004:Fred_Renzey
Davinci: The card tag complexity is practically the same. The big
added effort comes from having to convert to a true count. If that's
rough on you -- pass. If it's easy, go with it.

Sun Oct 3 22:33:13
2004:davinci Thank you Fred , I true counted many
years ago, but it has been a long time

Sun Oct 3 22:35:21
2004:Cardkountr a potential problem can come up when a
player allows you to double on his hand and then realizes that you've
just taken away his opportunity to take a second hit if
needed.

Sun Oct 3 22:35:48 2004:Matt hmmmm ....
yes

Sun Oct 3 22:36:34 2004:Fred_Renzey With
hand interaction, that's what you do. Wait for a known edge going in,
then get in on the hand. Either through taking part of a double,
taking somebody's split card, buying somebody's blackjack agaainst an
Ace for more than even money, or by making a side bet with them on
their hand.

Sun Oct 3 22:37:58
2004:Fred_Renzey And your edge on these plays is in the
5% to 15% range -- not 1% or 1.5% as it would be going into a
positive count situation before the hand is dealt.

Sun Oct 3
22:38:00 2004:Matt I'll have to try it... it does seem
like a bold play, though

Sun Oct 3 22:38:58
2004:Fred_Renzey Matt: It comes along with getting
friendly, like a team or a family with the other players at the
table.

Sun Oct 3 22:39:23 2004:Matt
ok

Sun Oct 3 22:40:09 2004:Fred_Renzey Many
times, once you initiate going partners on another player's double,
he'll often look at you and ask, "You want part of this
one?"

Sun Oct 3 22:40:34 2004:Cardkountr if he
realizes it and makes a stink, all it will do is call attention to
you........i prefer to take the difference when a player doubles for
less or doesn't have enough money for a split

Sun Oct 3 22:44:00
2004:Fred_Renzey Cardkountr: It's fairly important to
not double for somebody on hands where they'd want another hit if
their first one was a baby. Eleven against a 10 is a no-no unless
he's doubling for less. But the likes of A/6 against a 4, 5 or 6 are
no problem.

Sun Oct 3 22:44:35 2004:davinci I've
always been too reserved to play on any one else's
hand

Sun Oct 3 22:44:45 2004:Matt me too,
davinci

Sun Oct 3
22:44:48 2004:davinci little too shy I
guess

Sun Oct 3
22:44:48 2004:Cardkountr right
Fred

Sun Oct 3
22:45:34 2004:Fred_Renzey Okay guys. It's gettin' near
bedtime here. Thanks for the exchanges.

Sun Oct 3 22:45:40
2004:Cardkountr Fred's right though, once a person
allows you to partner his double once, he'll start asking you if you
want half

Sun Oct 3
22:45:46 2004:Matt Point well taken on the A6.
Thanks

Sun Oct 3
22:45:58 2004:Cardkountr Night
Fred

Sun Oct 3
22:46:07 2004:Matt And thank you Fred

Sun Oct 3 22:46:12
2004:davinci thanks Fred good
night

Sun Oct 3
22:46:18 2004:Matt Take care...

Sun Oct 3 22:46:40
2004:Fred_Renzey Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:46:45 2004:Matt
Logout:

Sun Oct 3
22:46:53 2004:Cardkountr Logout:

Sun Oct 3 22:46:55
2004:davinci Logout: