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Thread: daytrader77459: Sims for Wong out at TC(-1)

  1. #1

    daytrader77459: Sims for Wong out at TC(-1)

    Hello, Norm, others,

    Can you pls help either confirm or refute or clarify what Ian Andersen wrote about in his 2003 book? He indicated that in flat betting 2 hds at $10k each - and Wong out at TC(-1) - that this in fact is a winning strategy. Wong simulated results indicated EV of $6400 (or 0.45%) with Std Dev at $189k (or 21 units assuming single hd equivalent bet of $14k).

    Can you run sims to evaluate the above statements? I believe the model was for 6 dks, 75% pen, stand 17s, DAS, LS. Played hi lo indices and plays.

    I don't have sim software - and am not even sure how to simulate a Wong out scenario at TC(-1)

    Thank you for your help here! Also, thank you for your time and all of your answers in this forum.


  2. #2
    G Man

    G Man: Re: Sims for Wong out at TC(-1)

    Why would you doubt a simulation made by Stanford Wong?

  3. #3
    Dog Hand

    Dog Hand: I get an IBA of 0.353%...


    I ran a 400-million-round CVData sim for a heads-up HiLo counter playing a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS, LS game with 75% pen. The counter flat-bets 2x$100 and leaves at any TC (calculated to the nearest half-deck) of -1 or lower.

    I found an IBA of 0.353% and a win rate of $70.69/hr on a total action (including splits and double downs) of $22,808. His Std. Dev. was 18.97 units per hour.

    This mode of play works because, with the good rules, only the TC=0 rounds are -EV, at -0.284%. The EV increases rapidly: +0.506% (+1), +1.072% (+2), +1.686% (+3), and +2.349% (+4) as the TC increases. He plays 60.16% of his rounds at 0, so that means he plays 39.84% of his rounds at +EV (at an average EV of nearly +1.315%).

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  4. #4
    G Man

    G Man: Re: I get an IBA of 0.353%...

    The only problem is that you have to be prepared to leave about 77% of the shoes you'll start playing. Then, there is downtime between shoes that will cut into the number of rounds you will observe in an hour. How many tables will be available for such a strategy? With only 5-6 tables, you will definitely be noticed.


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