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Thread: Norm Wattenberger: CVData/CVCX Futures

  1. #27
    fatcat519
    Guest

    fatcat519: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > This currently is supported for true-counted
    > strategies that are floored or truncated.

    Can it be implemented for ordinary unbalanced KO?

  2. #28
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    No. I can't think of any way to do this accurately in a post-sim calculator for an unbalanced count. This requires CVData.


  3. #29
    fatcat519
    Guest

    fatcat519: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > No. I can't think of any way to do this accurately in
    > a post-sim calculator for an unbalanced count. This
    > requires CVData.

    OK. I have CVData.

  4. #30
    ES
    Guest

    ES: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    One more request:

    CV Data - The ability to simulate basic strategy with these composition-dependent fine points:

    1. Stand with 3 or more card hard 16 v 10

    2. Stand with hard 16 if one or more cards is a 4 or 5 v 10.

    It may be able to do the above already. Can it?

    I think it already can sim basic strategy with specific 2-card variations like Hit with 10-2 v 4. Can it?

  5. #31
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    CVData can handle specific 2 or 3 card combinations but not more.

    > One more request:

    > CV Data - The ability to simulate basic strategy with
    > these composition-dependent fine points:

    > 1. Stand with 3 or more card hard 16 v 10 2. Stand
    > with hard 16 if one or more cards is a 4 or 5 v 10 .

    > It may be able to do the above already. Can it?

    > I think it already can sim basic strategy with
    > specific 2-card variations like Hit with 10-2 v 4 .
    > Can it?

  6. #32
    ES
    Guest

    ES: CVCX

    It appears that much of what I want vis-a-vis Sessions data is available on CVCX Widgets. Is it? I have CVCX, but I have not used it.

    Suggestion for CVCX Ver. 5:

    A manual with step-by-step Tours, like the DV Data User Guide. I will post some CVCX questions later.

    > If anyone has any requests for the next version of
    > CVData and/or CVCX, now would be the time.

    > Serious Blackjack Software

  7. #33
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVCX

    Some of what you are asking for can be calculated using the widgets, or the calculators in CVData & CVCX. And CVData V5 will be able to use CVCX widgets, if you have CVCX. CVCX V4 comes with a color manual like the CVData User's Guide. Although I don't use the same step-by-step format as CVCX has so few steps. I may add a CVData-like tour as CVCX V5 does have added functionality, adding slightly to complexity.

    > It appears that much of what I want vis-a-vis Sessions
    > data is available on CVCX Widgets. Is it? I have CVCX,
    > but I have not used it.

    > Suggestion for CVCX Ver. 5 :

    > A manual with step-by-step Tours, like the DV Data
    > User Guide. I will post some CVCX questions later.

  8. #34
    MJ
    Guest

    MJ: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    I am not sure how much of this has already been mentioned but here are a few ideas:

    For a given session simulation, CVData could report the mean and median of the winning sessions as well as the losing sessions.

    For any wonging simulation, CVData should report how many shoes were observed, how many shoes were actually played, and the resulting % of shoes played. It would also be nice to get some sort of estimate of the standard deviation for the # of shoes that are actually played. For instance, using a particular wonging strategy might result in playing 25% of shoes observed, but how unusual of an event would it be to observe 100 shoes but only wong into 10 of them? This has practical application for tracking spotter efficiency for teams.

    Take a look at the charts and tables generated from Don's ODP study in BJA3. The more stats CVData provides when it comes to wonging sims, the better!

    OKAY this one is a special request! Do you think you could set-up CVData's wonging simulations to provide an estimate of EV, CE, and SD based upon a round by round basis? For example, the user inputs the RC when the wonger arrives at the table, # decks remaining, and # of other players at the table, and location of the cut card. Then the software spits out EV, CE, and SD for that particular round. If you watch Hot Shoe, you will notice that is how the MIT Team tracked and evaluated the value of their team play.

    I do believe their method provides more accurate results for post-trip analysis. But then again that is a lot of info to keep track of.

    Not sure if this is there already but include EV/shoe and SD/shoe. Also include CE/shoe. It would be nice to have a post-sim calculator for CVData simulations.

    For CVCX wonging, try to configure it so that different counting strategies can be compared at different entry points and then the results graphed across different pen levels.

    For CVData, try and implement the session sims to include expenses. For every 'x' rounds played 'y' dollars is subtracted. It will be interesting to see how this impacts ROR and Goal.

    CVCX- KO should be able to go back and forth between 1 and 2 hands and show the optimal schedule.

    Good luck!
    MJ

  9. #35
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > For a given session simulation, CVData could report
    > the mean and median of the winning sessions as well as
    > the losing sessions.

    Mean is planned. Median is probably impossible.

    > For any wonging simulation, CVData should report how
    > many shoes were observed, how many shoes were actually
    > played, and the resulting % of shoes played. It would
    > also be nice to get some sort of estimate of the
    > standard deviation for the # of shoes that are
    > actually played. For instance, using a particular
    > wonging strategy might result in playing 25% of shoes
    > observed, but how unusual of an event would it be to
    > observe 100 shoes but only wong into 10 of them? This
    > has practical application for tracking spotter
    > efficiency for teams.

    > Take a look at the charts and tables generated from
    > Don's ODP study in BJA3. The more stats CVData
    > provides when it comes to wonging sims, the better!

    Have to think about this. ODP really requires a lot of separate sims.

    > OKAY this one is a special request! Do you think you
    > could set-up CVData's wonging simulations to provide
    > an estimate of EV, CE, and SD based upon a round by
    > round basis? For example, the user inputs the RC when
    > the wonger arrives at the table, # decks remaining,
    > and # of other players at the table, and location of
    > the cut card. Then the software spits out EV, CE, and
    > SD for that particular round. If you watch Hot Shoe,
    > you will notice that is how the MIT Team tracked and
    > evaluated the value of their team play.

    > I do believe their method provides more accurate
    > results for post-trip analysis. But then again that is
    > a lot of info to keep track of.

    You might be able to get this with the MRI feature. But, I don't really see the point.

    > Not sure if this is there already but include EV/shoe
    > and SD/shoe. Also include CE/shoe. It would be nice to
    > have a post-sim calculator for CVData simulations.

    EV is EV whether by shoe, round, hour, etc. SD/Shoe is included now. Post-sim calculator is planned.

    > For CVCX wonging, try to configure it so that
    > different counting strategies can be compared at
    > different entry points and then the results graphed
    > across different pen levels.

    Planned.

    > For CVData, try and implement the session sims to
    > include expenses. For every 'x' rounds played 'y'
    > dollars is subtracted. It will be interesting to see
    > how this impacts ROR and Goal.

    I've always had a problem with this as expenses aren't really per hand.

    > CVCX- KO should be able to go back and forth between 1
    > and 2 hands and show the optimal schedule.

    Not really possible in a post-sim calculator. But planned for CVData.

  10. #36
    MJ
    Guest

    MJ: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > Mean is planned. Median is probably impossible.

    Mean and median are derived from the same data set. If you can calculate the former, you should be able to calculate the latter.

    > Have to think about this. ODP really requires a lot of
    > separate sims.

    I didn't mean to suggest CVData should be able to determine ODPs. Just try and include as much of the data in Tables 13.9-13.10 for the wonging sims. Those tables give important stats...just ask anybody that wongs.

    > EV is EV whether by shoe, round, hour, etc. SD/Shoe is
    > included now. Post-sim calculator is planned.

    EV/shoe is a nice stat. The user should not have to compute this himself, you should provide it as an option.

    > Planned.

    > I've always had a problem with this as expenses aren't
    > really per hand.

    Right, they are per trip. Every trip incurs a penalty expressed in dollars or units. I don't understand your point.

    MJ

  11. #37
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > Mean and median are derived from the same data set. If
    > you can calculate the former, you should be able to
    > calculate the latter.

    Assuming a reasonable number set, yes. Not with one billion numbers.

    > EV/shoe is a nice stat. The user should not have to
    > compute this himself, you should provide it as an
    > option.

    Do you mean win rate/shoe?

    > Right, they are per trip. Every trip incurs a penalty
    > expressed in dollars or units. I don't understand your
    > point.

    How is this applied to standard deviations? How is this handled in sessions? There are many ways.

  12. #38
    MJ
    Guest

    MJ: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > Assuming a reasonable number set, yes. Not with one
    > billion numbers.

    So you can configure the software to calculate the average of a billion numbers, but not sequentially arrange them and apply the formula (n+1)/2 where n = total numbers in the data set? It would seem that your software has done things of far greater complexity, but maybe this is one of those odd comp sci. issues.

    One other idea. In chapter 12 of BBIBJ Snyder presents an interesting simulation for a single deck game where he analyzes 100 playing sessions which break down to 76 wins and 24 losses. The sim provides all types of interesting info about longest number of consecutive wining sessions, losing sessions, largest winning session, losing session, longest number of consecutive sessions that showed a net loss, etc. I'm not sure if CVData can do this, but it is something to consider.

    > Do you mean win rate/shoe?

    Yes. Perhaps this feature already exists, however.

    > How is this applied to standard deviations? How is
    > this handled in sessions? There are many ways.

    What relevance does SD have here? We are running a sim session to gage the affect expenses have on Goal and Ruin. If you are trying to come up with some formula that factors expenses into Goal and RoR calculations, that is another matter.

    Permit me to illustrate my concept of incorporating expenses into sim sessions.

    Take the following scenario: A typical weekend for a counter is 1000 rounds at the tables. N0 for this game is 20000 rounds, and that is what we stipulate is a 'session'. His BR is 500 units and he would like to know the chances of reaching his goal of 500 units or losing 500 units during the course of 20000 rounds of play. Now after and only after every 1000 rounds has been played, he deducts 10 units from his BR, regardless of a winning or losing trip. In the event that his BR is insufficient to cover the 10 unit penalty after any given trip, he has effectively been wiped out and another session begins at 500 units.

    If done correctly, the probability of hitting Goal and Ruin should be slightly increased in the aforementioned scenario due to the expense penalty. Now for some players, I reckon expenses are far greater than 10 units and they tend to underestimate the affects expenses can have on Goal and Ruin. This feature could be a real eye opener!

    Good luck!
    MJ

  13. #39
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Two very quick comments

    > We are running a sim session to gage the affect

    Permit me to rewrite the end in English: "gauge the effect." :-)

    > Permit me to illustrate my concept of incorporating
    > expenses into sim sessions.

    > If done correctly, the probability of hitting Goal and
    > Ruin should be slightly increased in the
    > aforementioned scenario due to the expense penalty.

    Why would the probability of hitting the goal be increased?

    Don

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