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Thread: Norm Wattenberger: CVData/CVCX Futures

  1. #40
    MJ
    Guest

    MJ: Re: Two very quick comments

    > Why would the probability of hitting the goal be
    > increased ?

    Typo. Probability of reaching goal is decreased while the probability of ruin is increased. Thanks.

    MJ

  2. #41
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > So you can configure the software to calculate the
    > average of a billion numbers, but not sequentially
    > arrange them and apply the formula (n+1)/2 where n =
    > total numbers in the data set? It would seem that your
    > software has done things of far greater complexity,
    > but maybe this is one of those odd comp sci. issues.

    Arranging one billion numbers in order is very different from adding them and dividing by a billion.

    > One other idea. In chapter 12 of BBIBJ Snyder presents
    > an interesting simulation for a single deck game where
    > he analyzes 100 playing sessions which break down to
    > 76 wins and 24 losses. The sim provides all types of
    > interesting info about longest number of consecutive
    > wining sessions, losing sessions, largest winning
    > session, losing session, longest number of consecutive
    > sessions that showed a net loss, etc. I'm not sure if
    > CVData can do this, but it is something to consider.

    Much easier than the stuff ES asked for. (Standard deviations of a billion numbers is another of those sticky comp. sci. issues.) But I'm not sure I see the point. As the number of sessions increases, all these stats increase. That's a sign that the stats have little meaning.

    > What relevance does SD have here? We are running a sim
    > session to gage the affect expenses have on Goal and
    > Ruin. If you are trying to come up with some formula
    > that factors expenses into Goal and RoR calculations,
    > that is another matter.

    > Permit me to illustrate my concept of incorporating
    > expenses into sim sessions.

    > Take the following scenario: A typical weekend for a
    > counter is 1000 rounds at the tables. N0 for this game
    > is 20000 rounds, and that is what we stipulate is a
    > 'session'. His BR is 500 units and he would like to
    > know the chances of reaching his goal of 500 units or
    > losing 500 units during the course of 20000 rounds of
    > play. Now after and only after every 1000 rounds has
    > been played, he deducts 10 units from his BR,
    > regardless of a winning or losing trip. In the event
    > that his BR is insufficient to cover the 10 unit
    > penalty after any given trip, he has effectively been
    > wiped out and another session begins at 500 units.

    > If done correctly, the probability of hitting Goal and
    > Ruin should be slightly increased in the
    > aforementioned scenario due to the expense penalty.
    > Now for some players, I reckon expenses are far
    > greater than 10 units and they tend to underestimate
    > the affects expenses can have on Goal and Ruin. This
    > feature could be a real eye opener!

    Easy, but it doesn't sound very realistic to me. Expenses are not expended in such regular intervals, and are likely to be affected by bankroll.

  3. #42
    MJ
    Guest

    MJ: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    > Much easier than the stuff ES asked for. (Standard
    > deviations of a billion numbers is another of those
    > sticky comp. sci. issues.) But I'm not sure I see the
    > point. As the number of sessions increases, all these
    > stats increase. That's a sign that the stats have
    > little meaning.

    Of course the stats will increase as # sessions increases, however, that is not the point! The purpose is to give the user a real down to earth sense of what can happen during a realistic number of playing hours including the good, bad, and downright ugly. That is why Snyder provided the sim results.

    > Easy, but it doesn't sound very realistic to me.
    > Expenses are not expended in such regular intervals,
    > and are likely to be affected by bankroll.

    That gives me another idea. You're right, there will be variance with respect to the frequency and the magnitude of the expense penalty. Why not give the user the option to account for this by including a +/- box next to the frequency and expense fields?

    For example, the user might incur a penalty of 10 units every 1000 rounds with variance of +/- 3 units and +/- 300 rounds. The software could then randomly determine the frequency and expense penalty from one trip to the next! This feature would be similar to CVData's other feature that gives the user the option to determine cut card placement with +/- 'x' cards.

    Another idea similar to the one above is that the user could provide the SD for the frequency and expense penalty rather than +/- 'x'. This way, the variance intervals are not equally likely to occur but are subject to a normal distribution.

    It may not be perfect, but simulations which account for expenses in some way, shape, or form are better than nothing at all! Give the user the option to decide whether or not to factor it into the sim.

    MJ

  4. #43
    ES
    Guest

    ES: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    CV Data suggestion:

    The Payoffs screen includes 14 bonuses, which can be chosen individually in any combination. There is a single check box, that reads "Bonus must win to pay" at the bottom of the screen. The Atlantic City regs allow some of these bonuses and specify that the hand must win to collect the bonus, e.g. 7-7-7 does not get paid off at 3:2 if the dealer has 21. These bonuses are in the regs as an option, but are rarely used.

    Some casinos in Las Vegas may have have a 6-card <= 21 automatic winner rule. The very essence of this rule is to allow say a 6-card 17 to win even if the dealer has say 19.

    The 6-card <= 21 automatic winner rule may be offered in tandem with say a 2:1 payoff for 6-7-8 of the same suit. My suggestion is (1) to allow the "Bonus must win to pay" box be checked or not checked individually for each bonus or (2) to apply either to all or none of the specific cards or specific total hands, e.g. 7-7-7, A-J of Spades, 5-card exactly 21--these are real bonus hands in that they are paid off at better odds than even money--but not to 5-card <= 21 or 6-card <= 21 as these are automatic winners, even against a dealer's better hand, but paid off at even money, rather than bonus hands.

  5. #44
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures

    The standard bonuses have been pretty much obsoleted by the Custom Bonus feature. Although they're certainly easier and faster to use.

  6. #45
    ES
    Guest

    ES: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Blackjack Switch

    CV - the practice and training program - can play Blackjack Switch. This game has a house advantage of only 0.16%, according to Wong's CBN. The casinos may think of this game as just another one of their sucker games. Thus BJS tables may not get much heat.

    Arnold Synder's Big Book of Blackjack has a basic strategy for switching and playing, and, a Red 7 strategy for playing. Snyder's basic strategy is an approximation of a much longer basic strategy.

    Do you plan to add this game to CV Data? I know that I have made a lot of requests so far, but . . . .

  7. #46
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Blackjack Switch

    Not in V5. I had an idea for a new method of strategy generation. But the strategies were too complex for mortals.

  8. #47
    ES
    Guest

    ES: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Another Request

    The Hand Fee described on page 41 of Modern Blackjack, Vol. I

    This fee is charged or proposed to be charged at $2 tables in Atlantic City. I' not sure if it is a flat amount or a percentage of the bet.

  9. #48
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Another Request

    Yes I saw that. Sounds like it makes the game unplayable without another rule like bonus periods paid from the collection or player banking.

  10. #49
    ES
    Guest

    ES: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Another Request

    Is this rule available on either CV or CV Data/CVCX?

    > Yes I saw that. Sounds like it makes the game
    > unplayable without another rule like bonus periods
    > paid from the collection or player banking.

  11. #50
    ES
    Guest

    ES: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Another Request (more)

    Just because a rule makes a game unbeatable, it doesn't necessary follow that the rule shouldn't be on CV products, which support 6:5, dealer wins ties on 17, etc.

  12. #51
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Another Request (more)

    True. The rule is currently only in CVBJ.

  13. #52
    ES
    Guest

    ES: Re: CVData/CVCX Futures - Another Request (more)

    Do you plan to add it to DV Data and CVCX? I recommend it.

    > True. The rule is currently only in CVBJ.

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