Norm Wattenberger: CVData/CVCX Futures

[Norm Wattenberger]

If anyone has any requests for the next version of CVData and/or CVCX, now would be the time.


Serious Blackjack Software

[Dog Hand]

Norm,

I often use CVData to sim sidebets. I'd like to see the following features added to your excellent product:

1. Allow different tags for the various "X" cards, so for example Kings could have a different tag than 10's.

2. Allow tags to differ by suit, so for instance a Spade 7 could have a different tag than a Diamond 7.

3. When performing sims with "altered" decks, allow the user to select not just the rank of the cards removed (or added), but also their suits, so rather than simply removing 6 X's, the user could remove 6 Club Jacks.

4. Allow the user to specify a sidebet betting strategy, so for example the player could wager 1 unit on the SB at TC's of +4 to +6, and 2 units at TC's of +7 and above. Even more, allow the user to specify different SB betting strategies for different players.

Thanks in advance!

Dog Hand

[Norm Wattenberger]

1 and 2 are planned. I'll look at 3 and 4. All useful.

> Norm,

> I often use CVData to sim sidebets. I'd like to see
> the following features added to your excellent
> product:

> 1. Allow different tags for the various "X"
> cards, so for example Kings could have a different tag
> than 10's.

> 2. Allow tags to differ by suit, so for instance a
> Spade 7 could have a different tag than a Diamond 7.

> 3. When performing sims with "altered"
> decks, allow the user to select not just the rank of
> the cards removed (or added), but also their suits, so
> rather than simply removing 6 X's, the user could
> remove 6 Club Jacks.

> 4. Allow the user to specify a sidebet betting
> strategy, so for example the player could wager 1 unit
> on the SB at TC's of +4 to +6, and 2 units at TC's of
> +7 and above. Even more, allow the user to specify
> different SB betting strategies for different players.

> Thanks in advance!

> Dog Hand

[ES]

I would like more statistics for the Session Totals. Currently, CV Data displays the session bankroll, the target, the maximum number of rounds in each session, (The first three numbers are input by the user.), the number of sessions played, the percentage of the sessions with a net win, the percentage of the sessions with a net loss, the percentage of the sessions with a push, the percentage of the sessions in which the target result was met and the percentage of the sessions in which the entire session bankroll was lost. I would like to see the following additional statistics printable:

1. For all sessions with winning totals, i.e. the player's total at the end of the session is greater than the session bankroll, the mean size of the win and the standard deviation of the wins.

2. The same as 1 above for all losing sessions.

3. The mean and standard deviation of the lengths in terms of the number of rounds for sessions in which the target result was met.

4. The same as 3 for sessions in which the entire session bankroll was lost.

I would also like more options in setting up the sessions-based simulations, e.g. the ability to halve the size of the betting unit when half the session bankroll is lost, while leaving the size of the session bankroll unchanged. I am more interested in the additional statistics than this additional feature if only one of these can be added to CV Data. Thanks in advance.

> If anyone has any requests for the next version of
> CVData and/or CVCX, now would be the time.

> Serious Blackjack Software

[Norm Wattenberger]

Haven't looked at the session logic in awhile. I'll take a look.

[Franz Joseph]

Much of Don's book deals with risk of ruin for a large bankroll. The pros may think of their bank as not unlike an investment portfolio and look to play with a low risk of ruin.

Most counters are not pros and the high table miniums, especially at relatively decent games, preclude playing with a 3% or 5% RoR. Then, many, if not most, "recreational" counters and BS players are not playing with an investment portfolio-like bank, but rather with "mad money." (All apollogies to Jim Cramer!) Such players look at each pocketful of cash taken on a bus trip to Atlantic City as a stand alone bank that they are willing to risk in its entirety in hope of doubling it or reaching some other goal.

Thus, they want as much Sessions data as possible, including means and standard deviations of amounts won in winning or losing sessions limited in duration by time constraints. Another interesting possibility is allowing the user to set a cut in the minimum bet after a loss of a set percentage of the session bank, e.g. halving the bet when half the session bank is lost.

[Norm Wattenberger]

I'm sure Jim Cramer forgives you. I'll look at session data. As for changing the betting strategy after the bankroll changes, this is supported by the Multi-Betting strategy function.

Serious Blackjack Software

[ES]

Sessions data is important to players who treat each trip bankroll, espceially day-trippers to Atlantic City or other casinos more accessible than Las Vegas, as pin money, easy come-easy go money or the like, as opposed to high stakes professionals playing five- or six-figure bankrolls. The Atlantic City day-tripper may bring only a few hundred dollars with him and be willing to risk this entire amount, hoping to double it. He may go to Atlantic City frequently, e.g. almost every week, or infrequently.

This type of player is obviously not concerned with low risk of ruin, as presented by Don in Blackjack Attack, but he wants to know the probability of doubling, rather than losing $300 playing at a $10 table with a time constraint of 4 hours, as opposed to playing with the same $300 bankroll at a $15 table for the same 4 hours and to obtain the same probabilities for different numbers of decks, rules, etc. He also wants to know the mean win and loss, as well as the standard deviations, to determine 2/3 and 95% confidence intervals for expected session wins and losses when the bankroll is neither doubled nor lost totally. Can you think of any other useful statistics that CV Data can produce for Sessions?

> Haven't looked at the session logic in awhile. I'll
> take a look.

[Norm Wattenberger]

This won't be a problem to add. However, I'll make these stats optional to keep from slowing down most sims. I try to avoid multiplies.

[ES]

Thanks for adding more Sessions stats.

[Norm Wattenberger]

Currently, the won sessions and lost sessions do not include sessions that hit the target or bankrupted so that the percentages total to 100%. But, this probably doesn't make sense for the stats you asked for. So, the current stats should probably be changed to match the new stats.

[ES]

Here is the Session data for a sim I ran:

Parameters Parameters Parameters Results Results Results Results Results Results
Seat Bankroll Target Max Rounds Sessions Won Lost Pushed Hit Target Bankrupt
1 50 100 400 1,630,297 52.76% 46.83% .41% 25.49% 21.23%

The numbers are not directly below the headings.The size of each small bank is 50 units. The target is 100 units. The maximum number of rounds is 400. 52.76% of sessions were winners, 46.83% were losers and 0.41% were break evens. 25.49% of sessions saw the target reached or the bank doubled and 21.23% saw the bank totally lost.

The additional data that I would like to obtain are the mean win and standard deviation of the amounts won for all winning sessions, including those in which the bank was doubled; the mean loss and standard deviation of the amounts lost for all losing sessions, including those in which the bank was totally lost and the mean result and standard deviation of the amounts won or lost for all sessions, including those in which the bank was either doubled or totally lost. Can you think of any other useful data?

Here are some questions that arise because of half-unit payoffs for blackjack, half-unit losses on surrender and multi-unit bets or spreads to more than one hand because of a high count:

Suppose that the session bank is 50 units, the target is 100 units and the betting unit is $10. If a player's total is $10, he bets $10 and surrenders, then is his $5 total, which is a positive number, but less than the minimum bet (unit), considered a bankrupt session? If so then will $0 or $5 be used in calculating the mean and standard deviation? I think $5 should be used. Suppose that the player has bet his last unit and has to split, double or DAS. How is a negative total handled, if the program allows him to reach into his pocket? If it allows "deficit play," then will a loss greater than the bank size be used in calculating the mean and standard deviation? I think a negative number should be used.

Does the Sessions function allow a multi-unit bet if the player is down to his final unit, but the count is high? I think this should be a user option in the set up, as some players will adhere to a rigid maximum loss, while others will reach into their pocket to make a bet after losing a bankroll if the count warrants it.

Suppose again that the session bank is 50 units, the target is 100 units and the betting unit is $10. Suppose that a players bank is increased beyond $1,000 because of a blackjack, a double-down, a split, a multi-unit bet on a high count or some combination. Will a win of "only" $500 or the total actually won in the session, say $520, be used in calculating the mean and standard deviation? I think that the "excess" win should be used.

Use of the "excess" win, without allowing the player to be set up as reaching into his pocket when he is down to 1 unit or 1/2 unit with a strong positive count skews the result toward the positive. Finally, if the the player can be set up as reaching into his pocket when he is down to 1 unit or 1/2 unit with a strong positive count without some absolute deficit limit can skew the results to the negative. I hope that I have not convinced you to not add enhanced Sessions data to CV Data 5! :-)

> Currently, the won sessions and lost sessions do not
> include sessions that hit the target or bankrupted so
> that the percentages total to 100%. But, this probably
> doesn't make sense for the stats you asked for. So,
> the current stats should probably be changed to match
> the new stats.

[Norm Wattenberger]

The current "Disallow big bet with low bankroll" option overrides the betting strategy when the bankroll is not high enough. It cuts the bet to save for a double or split. But, the code does allow you to go a bit into your pocket for the rare resplit.

The new screen would look like: