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Thread: MJ: CVData: Simulation of short run

  1. #1
    MJ
    Guest

    MJ: CVData: Simulation of short run

    Is there a feature that can mimic BJRM's "Take A Random Walk" feature which can give the player an idea of what to expect in the short run?

    Suppose I want to get a feel for what might happen if I make 40 ten hour trips to the casino. Can CVData generate some type of graph to show what could happen in a random 40 trips where the BR is on the y-axis and Trips is on the x-axis?

    Ideally, a bar graph that breaks wins/losses down hour by hour is good (BJRM). Also, a line graph showing the BR rising and falling from one trip to another is also a great feature to include.

    MJ


  2. #2
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData: Simulation of short run

    On the Nuances/Data page, turn on Keep a Log. After the sim, go to Tools-View Log. You will see various methods of changing session length and the display. This will provide a more accurate picture as it is done through simulation of Blackjack, not statistical methods which cannot take into account the strings of high bets in Blackjack counting. EV and SD alone cannot describe the likely patterns that occur in the short run in a set of data that does not come from independent trials.

    > Is there a feature that can mimic BJRM's "Take A
    > Random Walk" feature which can give the player an
    > idea of what to expect in the short run?

    > Suppose I want to get a feel for what might happen if
    > I make 40 ten hour trips to the casino. Can CVData
    > generate some type of graph to show what could happen
    > in a random 40 trips where the BR is on the y-axis and
    > Trips is on the x-axis?

    > Ideally, a bar graph that breaks wins/losses down hour
    > by hour is good (BJRM). Also, a line graph showing the
    > BR rising and falling from one trip to another is also
    > a great feature to include.

    > MJ

  3. #3
    MJ
    Guest

    MJ: Re: CVData: Simulation of short run

    > EV and SD alone
    > cannot describe the likely patterns that occur in the
    > short run in a set of data that does not come from
    > independent trials.

    Interesting. I thought patterns only become evident in the long run; once the laws of large numbers kick in. What type of patterns are you referring to?

    Is the "Take A Random Walk Feature" way off mark, or can it at least be used for a quick down and dirty estimate of the swings that can occur in the short run?

    There are dozens of pages in BJA3 that include the charts generated by this very feature from BJRM. It is unlikely DS would include something that was way off mark in his book.

    MJ

  4. #4
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVData: Simulation of short run

    Frankly, I'm not certain the exact charts means much. It's just an indication that the short-run can be wild. To that end, the charts illustrate wild swings, and that is important. But every chart you make will look completely different.

    If each data point shows only one hand, the charts will look very different. The pattern that I am talking about is long runs of tiny variations with occasional wild swings due to the fact that max bets are often grouped together. This is what you experience in a casino. The more hands that you group into each data point, the more the statistical results will match the simulation results.

    > Interesting. I thought patterns only become evident in
    > the long run; once the laws of large numbers kick in.
    > What type of patterns are you referring to?

    > Is the "Take A Random Walk Feature" way off
    > mark, or can it at least be used for a quick down and
    > dirty estimate of the swings that can occur in the
    > short run?

    > There are dozens of pages in BJA3 that include the
    > charts generated by this very featurerom BJRM. It is
    > unlikely DS would include something that was way off
    > mark in his book.

    > MJ

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