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Thread: Alexost: CVCX question

  1. #1
    Alexost
    Guest

    Alexost: CVCX question

    Is there any way to simulate the ten count for insurance purposes on CVCX? Where Tens = -2 Non tens = +1. Insure when RC equals 4 times the number of decks in play.

    Thanks

  2. #2
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVCX question

    Well yes - get CVData. CVCX alone does not have side count capability. However, if you call CVCX from CVData, it 'borrows' the side count capability from CVData. One of the several side count features of CVData is the Insurance Ten Count that you described.

    > Is there any way to simulate the ten count for
    > insurance purposes on CVCX? Where Tens = -2 Non tens =
    > +1. Insure when RC equals 4 times the number of decks
    > in play.

    > Thanks


    Serious Blackjack Software

  3. #3
    Alexost
    Guest

    Alexost: Re: CVCX question

    Norm-

    Can you tell me what statistical information CVdata provides in reference to the ten count? I'm looking for the insurance edge at all possible ranges of the ten count, and the possible ranges of the ten count for 1,2,4, and 6 decks. How often one can expect to see a positive edge with the ten count, and of course, whatever else is available with CVdata.

    Thanks

  4. #4
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVCX question

    The tables with Insurance data are below. However, all data is by TC at the start of the round because that is of most interest. It might be interesting to add an option to use the TC at Insurance time.

    Test Sim

    Friday, April 13, 2007, 10:12 PM




    [/b]Here we see the amount bet, won, Win Rate and Total Bet Advantage for Insurance, Double Downs and Splits by True Count.

    Player #1: True Count Contributions
    InsuranceDouble DownsSplits
    BetWin/LoseRateEVBetWin/LoseRateTBABetWin/LoseRateTBA
    +2518-18$0.00-50.00%
    +2436-36$0.00-50.00%
    +225454$0.0050.00%18-72$0.00-100.0%126144$0.0057.1%
    +21126-18$0.00-7.14%5472$0.0033.3%306216$0.0035.3%
    +20252-36$0.00-7.14%162360$0.0055.6%234108$0.0023.1%
    +19612252$0.0020.59%540792$0.0036.7%1,332756$0.0028.4%
    +182,832858$0.0015.15%1,6202,016$0.0131.1%3,4742,628$0.0137.8%
    +175,1481,818$0.0117.66%3,4985,136$0.0336.7%8,6766,912$0.0339.8%
    +167,0982,136$0.0115.05%4,6265,184$0.0328.0%9,5405,652$0.0329.6%
    +1522,5605,808$0.0312.87%16,61419,800$0.1029.8%33,66021,408$0.1131.8%
    +1442,33012,408$0.0614.66%36,67236,840$0.1825.1%64,29637,506$0.1929.2%
    +13103,47023,664$0.1211.44%91,818110,952$0.5530.2%155,26894,056$0.4730.3%
    +12123,58826,910$0.1310.89%117,132125,736$0.6326.8%197,892116,172$0.5829.4%
    +11354,55860,342$0.308.51%356,706367,296$1.8425.7%576,444306,558$1.5326.6%
    +10562,20696,288$0.488.56%602,592585,984$2.9324.3%911,628483,972$2.4226.5%
    +91,178,796153,834$0.776.53%1,365,9301,295,184$6.4823.7%1,921,926947,580$4.7424.7%
    +81,554,156157,950$0.795.08%1,904,8741,718,976$8.5922.6%2,378,4661,090,254$5.4522.9%
    +72,243,452184,472$0.924.11%2,858,9162,452,304$12.2621.4%3,201,6481,361,808$6.8121.3%
    +63,431,000184,492$0.922.69%4,574,7043,787,184$18.9420.7%4,496,0881,731,560$8.6619.3%
    +53,086,342102,130$0.511.65%4,238,8263,398,960$16.9920.0%3,339,7481,113,640$5.5716.7%
    +44,533,22260,858$0.30.67%6,831,3285,140,512$25.7018.8%3,937,5041,048,378$5.2413.3%
    +33,613,784-5,076($0.03)-.07%8,707,9506,639,108$33.2019.1%4,417,428859,569$4.309.7%
    +2333,002-3,488($0.02)-.52%9,602,5977,111,008$35.5618.5%4,896,889873,598$4.378.9%
    +11.7957e71.2576e7$62.8817.5%9,253,5731,432,426$7.167.7%
    02.8010e71.8879e7$94.3916.9%1.5087e71,948,240$9.746.5%
    -11.7516e71.1642e7$58.2116.6%9,711,0421,053,344$5.275.4%
    -29,195,3185,963,840$29.8216.2%5,191,193491,986$2.464.7%
    -35,289,4173,295,404$16.4815.6%2,937,508215,654$1.083.7%
    -42,837,7051,695,144$8.4814.9%1,584,01381,424$0.412.6%
    -51,531,357955,208$4.7815.6%989,89028,544$0.141.4%
    -6767,644477,624$2.3915.6%499,50613,920$0.071.4%
    -7458,341276,680$1.3815.1%281,033-1,636($0.01)-.3%
    -8191,367101,752$0.5113.3%117,134-2,066($0.01)-.9%
    -9135,22867,392$0.3412.5%80,325-1,052($0.01)-.7%
    -1059,96230,100$0.1512.5%33,275-2,282($0.01)-3.4%
    -1133,43517,896$0.0913.4%19,142304$0.00.8%
    -1210,1674,288$0.0210.5%5,700-442$0.00-3.9%
    -138,6392,744$0.017.9%4,969-474$0.00-4.8%
    -143,5951,472$0.0110.2%1,952-508$0.00-13.0%
    -152,105860$0.0010.2%1,038$0.00
    -16561-144$0.00-6.4%27036$0.006.7%
    -1747516$0.00.8%285-96$0.00-16.8%
    -18177-12$0.00-1.7%63-36$0.00-28.6%
    -199672$0.0018.8%60-18$0.00-15.0%
    -2018-24$0.00-33.3%
    -219-12$0.00-33.3%612$0.00100%
    -229-12$0.00-33.3%6$0.00



    [/b]Results by type of hand are provided. The first four columns of data display the number of bets made, won, lost and tied. Units bet and won are provided. Advantage is Total Bet Advantage.

    Player #1: Hand Types
    HandsUnitsAdvantage
    TotalWonLostTiedBetWon/LostPercentStd. Dev.
    Ins.8,630,2262,962,486-5,667,7402.1199e71,065,6025.027%0.026
    Surr.3.7602e7-3.7602e75.2581e7-5.2581e7-50%0.00
    Splits5.1620e72.5381e7-2.2602e73,636,3381.5270e81.5360e710.059%0.020
    Soft DD1.8912e79,827,658-7,948,9601,135,1929.2219e71.0259e711.124%0.029
    Hard DD8.8649e74.9425e7-3.2787e76,436,7074.0909e87.8531e719.197%0.014



    [/b]Results by type of hand are provided including win/loss/tie distributions, percentages for each hand type, action and win rates.

    Player #1: Win, Loss & Tied Percentages by Hand Type
    DistributionIncluding TiesExcluding TiesDollars per Hour
    BetsUnitsWonLostTiedWonLostActionWin Rate
    Ins.0.84%0.18%34.33%65.67%34.33%65.67%$105.99$5.33
    Surr.3.66%0.79%100%100%$262.90($262.90)
    Splits5.02%4.33%49.17%43.79%7.04%52.90%47.10%$763.52$76.80
    Soft DD1.84%1.59%51.97%42.03%6.00%55.28%44.72%$461.09$51.29
    Hard DD8.63%7.44%55.75%36.99%7.26%60.12%39.88%$2,045.43$392.66

  5. #5
    Alexost
    Guest

    Alexost: Re: CVCX question

    > The tables with Insurance data are below. However, all
    > data is by TC at the start of the round because that
    > is of most interest. It might be interesting to add an
    > option to use the TC at Insurance time.

    So I take it CVdata will let me add this option, and it will show me, or help me figure out, how often the opportunities to insure profitably will arise? I want to know the edge of insurance bets at all ten counts and how often they will present themselves with any number of decks and penetrations..

    Thanks for running the above sims!


  6. #6
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: CVCX question

    It supplies the tables I posted. But, the counts are at the start of the round; not when the Insurance bet is made. I just added an option to allow building these tables based on a recalculation of the count when the Insurance decision is made in CVData V4 which is still in testing. Actually it's something I've wanted to add for awhile and your post reminded me.

    > So I take it CVdata will let me add this option, and
    > it will show me, or help me figure out, how often the
    > opportunities to insure profitably will arise? I want
    > to know the edge of insurance bets at all ten counts
    > and how often they will present themselves with any
    > number of decks and penetrations..

    > Thanks for running the above sims!

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