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Thread: Alexost: Excel flux range spread sheet.

  1. #1
    Alexost
    Guest

    Alexost: Excel flux range spread sheet.

    Will someone please show me the formula(s) used to calculate normal fluctuations given X number of hands played, Y average EV in percent, Z average bet. I made a spreadsheet that calculates a session/trip bankroll figure modeled after a formula as given in Blackjack for Blood, but it doesn't seem to work correctly when attempting to find the average total win or loss. (not just max bet win or loss)

    2s.d. (95%)= (2(1.1/(N^1/2))) where N = the number of max bets placed.

    The above calculation is subtracted and added from max bet EV, say 2.25%, the two resulting numbers are then multiplied by total max bet action to arrive at a 95% probability loss-win interval, as a quick and easy method of figuring out how much money should be brought during a given session.

    What I am looking for is a total session interval, taking into consideration all bets, not just max bets.

    I would think that the above would also work to find total session win/loss intervals, but when inputing figures from blackjack lesson #9 from another website, the figures aren't the same.

    Thanks for everyone's time!

  2. #2
    Alexost
    Guest

    Alexost: Re: Excel flux range spread sheet.

    I figured out what I was looking for. I was thrown off because I was using the expected value and fluctuation ranges as posted under "Blackjack School" lesson #9 on S.Wongs' site, as a reference. It turns out these may not be correct. Don, you love to correct these types of mistakes... Can you take a look at BJ school lesson #9's figures and see if you agree?

  3. #3
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Excel flux range spread sheet.

    > I was thrown off
    > because I was using the expected value and fluctuation
    > ranges as posted under "Blackjack School"
    > lesson #9 on S.Wongs' site, as a reference. It turns
    > out these may not be correct. Don, you love to correct
    > these types of mistakes... Can you take a look at BJ
    > school lesson #9's figures and see if you agree?

    They're ridiculously and grotesquely wrong in every conceivable way. Who wrote that crap?? Before you even get to look at the standard deviation ranges, which make no sense, you can see that the sample win rates are all wrong. For example, the 12-hour win rate isn't even four times the 3-hour win rate.

    I'll try to write to Wong when I have a moment.

    Don

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