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Thread: Alexxx: a special Bonus hand advantage

  1. #1
    Alexxx
    Guest

    Alexxx: a special Bonus hand advantage

    My local casino introduced a special bonus rule with
    1 Joker card inside 6 deck shoe.
    Joker is effective only as player's first or second card.
    If player's 2 card combination is Joker and A,10,J,Q,K, then natural.
    If player's 2 card combination is Joker and 2 to 9, then hard 21.
    Joker after split is effective.
    If Joker is dealt to dealer or player's third or fourth, fifth....it is canceled, and next card will be dealt.

    How much is the advantage of this rule?

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    >How much is the advantage of this rule?

    Back-of-the-envelope calculation: 0.7%.

    Don

  3. #3
    Ikipiros
    Guest

    Ikipiros: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    > Back-of-the-envelope calculation: 0.7%.

    > Don

    The additional ev as Don says is about 0.7%
    The value of the joker in Hi-Low counting is around 7 (maybe more). Meaning that you should start your counting at +7 (not 0) and when the joker comes out deduct the 7.
    If you can ST just the joker (at least trying to keep the joker out of the discards) then you have an excellent game even with very little spread.

  4. #4
    Alexxx
    Guest

    Alexxx: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    > Back-of-the-envelope calculation: 0.7%.

    > Don

    Thank you, Don.

    As cards are dealt and Joker does not come out,
    adv of the bonus rule increases?

  5. #5
    Alexxx
    Guest

    Alexxx: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    > The additional ev as Don says is about 0.7%
    > The value of the joker in Hi-Low counting is around 7
    > (maybe more). Meaning that you should start your
    > counting at +7 (not 0) and when the joker comes out
    > deduct the 7.

    thanks Ikipiros,
    Your idea is excellent.
    It is very easy way for betting decision.
    and I think it is very reasonable.

    > If you can ST just the joker (at least trying to keep
    > the joker out of the discards) then you have an
    > excellent game even with very little spread.

    sorry, what is "ST"?

  6. #6
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    > Thank you, Don.

    > As cards are dealt and Joker does not come out,
    > adv of the bonus rule increases?

    Yes, clearly.

    Don

  7. #7
    Aruuba
    Guest

    Aruuba: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    > The value of the joker in Hi-Low counting is around 7
    > (maybe more). Meaning that you should start your
    > counting at +7 (not 0) and when the joker comes out
    > deduct the 7.

    You got me wondering in what ways if, say, I or anyone, even Don lol, happened to be using Table 10.43 playing-all and spreading 1-16 when this rule would be introduced. And the rule really is worth 0.7%. And I can't run another sim.

    Could I just add a fixed 0.7% to each advantage listed maybe and still be safe, maybe even not adjusting my counting system as you're suggesting?

    Would what you suggest amount to the same thing more or less, I guess bumping up each TC by 1, since you're starting a shoe at TC+1 with an adv associated with a TC+1 even though it's a new shoe with your suggestion?

    Would one way or the other keep the original risk more or less the same or maybe even allow a big unit change since the game is now +EV even for a BS player?

    Would one guess SD might be a factor to consider too or perhaps negligible and not effecting risk much at all? Is there a back-of -the-envelope calc for that? (I'm sure there is but if you could share it that'd be great.)

    More practically, not that we have the slightest clue how Alexxx was betting or even may be betting if starting at RC +7 but is there any way to speculate, generally maybe, what, if anything, might change?

    I just have to wonder how a casino could do this and, apparently a good chance at least, of offering a +EV game.
    Cowardly lion that I am, I'd tend to maybe not change too much from what you are already doing and let the increased adv, whatever it is, work for you. Changing nothing, it seems to me maybe, your worst case would maybe be making more money with less risk.
    That's just a guess though.

  8. #8
    Ikipiros
    Guest

    Ikipiros: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    > You got me wondering in what ways if, say, I or
    > anyone, even Don lol, happened to be using Table 10.43
    > playing-all and spreading 1-16 when this rule would be
    > introduced. And the rule really is worth 0.7%. And I
    > can't run another sim.
    The rule is really worth around 0.7%. I have played in the past similar game where the joker counted also as third card and the Ev for the joker was more than that. Unfortunately there are no sofwtawre to sim jokers as far as I know

    > Could I just add a fixed 0.7% to each advantage listed
    > maybe and still be safe, maybe even not adjusting my
    > counting system as you're suggesting?
    Yes, but you need to remove the advantage when the Joker comes (which the simple counting tag is used for)

    > Would what you suggest amount to the same thing more
    > or less, I guess bumping up each TC by 1, since you're
    > starting a shoe at TC+1 with an adv associated with a
    > TC+1 even though it's a new shoe with your suggestion?
    Yes, but the joker gets more valuable the more cards pass and it does not appear. Adding RC7 at the beginning adds a bit mote than TC1. But after 3 decks have passed it adds a bit more than TC2 etc.

    > Would one way or the other keep the original risk more
    > or less the same or maybe even allow a big unit change
    > since the game is now +EV even for a BS player?
    I do not think Risk (standard deviation) changes in a significant way from the standard game.

    > Would one guess SD might be a factor to consider too
    > or perhaps negligible and not effecting risk much at
    > all? Is there a back-of -the-envelope calc for that?
    > (I'm sure there is but if you could share it that'd be
    > great.)
    The only way to calculate the SD is to do a sim. I would not worry that there is any significant change in Risk(SD)

    > More practically, not that we have the slightest clue
    > how Alexxx was betting or even may be betting if
    > starting at RC +7 but is there any way to speculate,
    > generally maybe, what, if anything, might change?

    > I just have to wonder how a casino could do this and,
    > apparently a good chance at least, of offering a +EV
    > game.
    > Cowardly lion that I am, I'd tend to maybe not change
    > too much from what you are already doing and let the
    > increased adv, whatever it is, work for you. Changing
    > nothing, it seems to me maybe, your worst case would
    > maybe be making more money with less risk.
    > That's just a guess though.
    Casinos make stupid mistakes and offer occasionally Off the top positive games (at least outside US). They still make money depending on the awfull play of the standard ploppy (again at least outside US).
    I have played positive of the top games ranging from +0.2% to +2% (that was a special promotion lasting only a day)
    The important thing is not the finer details of how to play this game but finding where it is.

  9. #9
    Aruuba
    Guest

    Aruuba: Re: a special Bonus hand advantage

    > Yes, but you need to remove the advantage when the
    > Joker comes (which the simple counting tag is used
    > for)
    > Yes, but the joker gets more valuable the more cards
    > pass and it does not appear. Adding RC7 at the
    > beginning adds a bit mote than TC1. But after 3 decks
    > have passed it adds a bit more than TC2 etc.
    > I do not think Risk (standard deviation) changes in a
    > significant way from the standard game.
    > The only way to calculate the SD is to do a sim. I
    > would not worry that there is any significant change
    > in Risk(SD)

    Thanks for your thoughts. I was just trying to get to how someone might adjust anything or not when already playing to a sim but a rule like this, say, is introduced.

    Like a play-all guy 1-16 already betting 1,1,2.5,5,10,15,16 units as in Table 10.43 with 1000 units.

    So, of course SD in units or dollars per round wouldn't change if all I do is add 0.007 adv at each TC and assume same freq and variance at each TC. The only thing that changes would be my win rate goes from 0.97% to 1.67% and my ROR plummets. I guess N0 would plummet too while SCORE would skyrocket.

    Starting at RC +7 obviously would change the frequencies that +TC's would occur. I guess if that play-all guy moved to playing 2.5 at TC+1, etc, I guess it gets a little harder to adjust (guesstimate maybe from the freq's one already has) the frequencies of the TC's and/or adv at those TC's but it just seems unlikely one's ROR could be the same.

    > The important thing is not the finer details of how to
    > play this game but finding where it is.

    I guess how to play a game is always the most important thing to me.

    So just wondering if anyone cared to speculate how doing one or the other might/might not effect the existing way one was already playing the game from an existing sim. Or what one would/ might do to adjust an existing sim given no add'l sim could be run with this rule. Using Table 10.43 in this case.

    Maybe a silly overall question anyway.

    Maybe most specifically, I was hoping Don might have a few general thoughts on how he would proceed if he were a Table 10.43 play-all 1-16 player with $10K and this rule was suddenly introduced, say for a day or a week or a month, if that would matter, what he might do with just a pencil and envelope after concluding the value of this rule whatever way he assumed that rule works knowing what he does, how he might adjust the freq and adv columns (SD column too), if at all, etc.

    Even, possibly, maybe including, if no sim possible for these exact rules, no play.

    I got an adv of around 0.7% too, not assuming tied BJ's, not worrying about the extra card in the deck, not worrying about how often it might be the 3rd or more card, not worrying if it's the dealer's 2nd card and he can keep it, not worrying how adv may change at each TC, assuming freq's of 2-9 vs dealer total 21 rates from somewhere etc.

    You say a sim can't deal with the joker - maybe it can't per se. If I could generate the Table 10.43 sim maybe I could also generate it by freq of BJ's, 2 thru 9's etc, at each TC and work from there using that somehow, etc?


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