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Thread: beginner21: Can I trust basicstrategy?

  1. #1
    beginner21
    Guest

    beginner21: Can I trust basicstrategy?

    Is it true, that I can put one thousand times(1,000)! a $10 unit on the table, and loose only $50 when the house edge is 0.5%??

    beginner

  2. #2
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Yes and no and no and no and no and no

    Yes, Basic Strategy is correct.

    No, the quotes provided for BS EV ignore the cut card effect and therefore are only valid when the dealer deals a fixed number of rounds.

    No, you would have to play hundreds of millions of hands to assure yourself of actualizing the exact EV.

    No, unless not only your play is perfect, but you manage to catch all dealer errors that might harm you.

    No if your bankroll is not high enough.

    No, if someone is backcounting or wonging out of your table.

    Depressing ain't it?

  3. #3
    jblaze
    Guest

    jblaze: random question

    If you never said anything to the dealer, and no one ever corrected his or her payouts, either in the players' favor or against, would you expect the good and bad errors to cancel each other out?

    > Yes, Basic Strategy is correct.

    > No, the quotes provided for BS EV ignore the cut card
    > effect and therefore are only valid when the dealer
    > deals a fixed number of rounds.

    > No, you would have to play hundreds of millions of
    > hands to assure yourself of actualizing the exact EV.

    > No, unless not only your play is perfect, but you
    > manage to catch all dealer errors that might harm you.

    > No if your bankroll is not high enough.

    > No, if someone is backcounting or wonging out of your
    > table.

    > Depressing ain't it?

  4. #4
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: random question

    I have a couple of new charts on this that I'll put up in a couple of weeks. Some dealer errors will affect more than one player at the table. So, someone else may point them out. Also when you have a max bet out it is highly unlikely that you will miss an error. But if no one says anything; I would guess it is close to break even probably leaning slightly against the player. But that is a guess and I'd be interested in other opinions.

    > If you never said anything to the dealer, and no one
    > ever corrected his or her payouts, either in the
    > players' favor or against, would you expect the good
    > and bad errors to cancel each other out?

  5. #5
    jblaze
    Guest

    jblaze: Re: random question

    The three most common errors I see are multicard hands added incorrectly, pushes paid out as wins, and wins not paid out but instead pushed. Just looking at the multicard situation, I would think that more likely than not, if we are just told 'someone' has a multicard hand, either the dealer or player, I'd say the player is the likely loser. But then of course you don't know if the error will be paid out for or against the player. So yea, I've added nothing to the discussion.

    But I will say, I've seen situations where a player's hand ends before the rest of the table, then that player places a new bet before the rest of the table has finished the previous round. The dealer pulls a multicard 21 and that player's new bet gets swiped too! I think this alone, with all other errors cancelling, is a strictly lose-lose for the player, and would put 'mistakes' in favor of the house.

    You can argue maybe the dealer would bust on that same hand, and pay out the new/early bet, thus favoring the player. But, I think this happens far less frequently than the other way around, even without anyone mentioning anything in either case.

    > I have a couple of new charts on this that I'll put up
    > in a couple of weeks. Some dealer errors will affect
    > more than one player at the table. So, someone else
    > may point them out. Also when you have a max bet out
    > it is highly unlikely that you will miss an error. But
    > if no one says anything; I would guess it is close to
    > break even probably leaning slightly against the
    > player. But that is a guess and I'd be interested in
    > other opinions.

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