Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 14 to 25 of 25

Thread: Anna: Early or Late surrender?

  1. #14
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: 6D S17 ENHC DAS DOA ES10/ES

    > Are the baseline rules 6D S17 DOA NDAS NS OBO SPL3?

    Yes.

    > I'm wondering if it's SPL1 since that's about a 0.03%
    > difference...

    No, SPL3.

    > I'm not sure why the 6D S17 values would be so far off
    > then (-0.520 vs -0.546). Adding rules one at a time in
    > the order you presented plus the SPL difference I get
    > the following:

    > 6D S17 DOA NDAS NS OBO SPL1: -0.554%
    > SPL3: -0.520% (Diff 0.034%)

    The problem is right there. See BJA3, p. 394. Either way, T-D, or C-D, your -0.52% seems too good for the player.

    > DAS: -0.378% (Diff 0.142%)

    Fine.

    > ENHC: -0.492% (Diff -0.114%)

    Not exact, but close enough.

    > ES: 0.152% (Diff 0.644%)

    > Keep in mind that my TD values are NOT keeping the
    > strategy identical - they are calculating the best
    > strategy for the given rules. That could also be
    > another difference.

    Again, I can't think of anything you'd do that would be BETTER. there's something wrong with your off-the-top, base rules edge.

    > I also didn't compare moving the
    > order of the rules around to see if that made any
    > difference to the "Diff" values except for
    > one below:

    > 6D OBO NDAS to 6D OBO DAS: Diff 0.142%
    > 6D ENHC NDAS to 6D ENHC DAS: Diff 0.140%

    > So the order matters a little bit, but the net with my
    > calcs is the same taken all together. If the numbers
    > are taken all from baseline though, then interactions
    > will cause a difference as above.

    > Right - see above.

    Check some of the other sites for the base rules and edges. Yours just seems to be too good for 6D.

    Don

  2. #15
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: For example ...

    > Check some of the other sites for the base rules and
    > edges. Yours just seems to be too good for 6D.

    Mike S. gives -0.5445. Norm gives -0.54. BJ Engine gives -0.56. And so on. Can't tell you what's wrong, but your -0.52 is too good.

    Don

  3. #16
    MGP
    Guest

    MGP: Need to do some checking

    Thanks Don for double checking,

    I'm in the midst of converting my CA from VBA to VB.Net and with my original one which I know is exact I'm getting -.548 with TD strategy and matching the BJA3 values exactly when I match the strategy. I initially was able to do the same with the CA in progress so I assumed that wouldn't change, but apparently some of the recent changes I made are changing something. I'll figure it out and repost.

    Sorry for the mistake.

    Thanks again,
    MGP

    > Yes.

    > No, SPL3.

    > The problem is right there. See BJA3, p. 394. Either
    > way, T-D, or C-D, your -0.52% seems too good for the
    > player.

    > Fine.

    > Not exact, but close enough.

    > Again, I can't think of anything you'd do that would
    > be BETTER. there's something wrong with your
    > off-the-top, base rules edge.

    > Check some of the other sites for the base rules and
    > edges. Yours just seems to be too good for 6D.

    > Don

  4. #17
    MGP
    Guest

    MGP: Corrected 6D S17 ENHC DAS DOA ES10/ES

    > Hi MGP,

    > When you surrender, you get back half your money
    > straight away.

    > Other infos: 6D, DAS, DA2, ENHC. Split Aces get only
    > one card.
    > Hi MGP,

    Ok - for the above rules S17 we have the following 2 CORRECTED EVs for a TD strategy:

    ES (i.e. surrender all upcards): 0.126083457510875%
    ES10 (i.e. surrender 2-10, no surrender Ace): -0.264666756748014%

    If you use a 2-card dependent strategy you should have the following EVs:

    ES (i.e. surrender all upcards): 0.126367099160438%
    ES10 (i.e. surrender 2-10, no surrender Ace): -0.264383115098452%

    If you need to strategies posted let me know.

    Sincerely,
    MGP

  5. #18
    MGP
    Guest

    MGP: Found the mistake

    Hi Don,

    A rule I had just added was messing up the shoe before the double ev's were calculated. I've removed the new feature for now and it should be fine and exact now.

    My values will differ from Cacarulo's slightly because I'm using a TD strategy and not the BJA3 strategy. I'll also include the 2C strategy figures for a closer comparison to the BJA3 numbers since the BJA3 values use the CD figures.

     
    TD Diff TC Diff
    6D S17 OBO DOA NDAS NS -0.5476290% -0.5457572%
    DAS -0.4059224% 0.1417066% -0.4040622% 0.1416949%
    ENHC -0.5176368% -0.1117144% -0.5152312% -0.1111690%
    ES 0.1260835% 0.6437203% 0.1263671% 0.6415983%
    .

    The differences in the ES and ENHC changes are interaction effects. I double checked the changes in 2C values from 6D OBO NDAS NS SPL3 to 6D OBO NDAS ES SPL3 (i.e. +0.629) and the ENHC from OBO change value (-0.109) and got the same as the BJA3 values.

    Thanks for pointing out the error, I would've found it eventually when I double checked everything when/if I finish, but it was something I just added and didn't realize it messed things up.

    MGP

  6. #19
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: Found the mistake

    > Thanks for pointing out the error, I would've found it
    > eventually when I double checked everything when/if I
    > finish, but it was something I just added and didn't
    > realize it messed things up.

    When developing, it can be very helpful to have an automated test case that you can run at anytime to check that you haven't broken anything.

  7. #20
    Oliver Loving
    Guest

    Oliver Loving: Re: Early or Late surrender?

    Don. Can you explain why surrender is MUCH better for counters.

    > Note that any form of surrender is worth much, more
    > more to the counter than to the BS player.

    > Don

  8. #21
    Ouchez
    Guest

    Ouchez: Re: Early or Late surrender?

    There was a paper done on the value of surrender to counters and how it had been vastly underrated.

    Maybe you can try to attain access to this paper, it was done by one...Arnold Snyder.

    I will give you ONE example. While recently playing I had an 18 with the dealer having a face up, the count was very high, very high, so I surrendered, the dealer flipped a 20, he looked at me rather strangely. ( I also was tracking with great results).

    Of course the opposite can also be true, not surrendering at times of a very low count.

    Surrender is of value to all players who use it wisely, basic strategy players, or to highly skilled AP's.

    Ouchez.

  9. #22
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Early or Late surrender?

    > Don. Can you explain why surrender is MUCH better for
    > counters.

    Do you have BJA3? I discuss this at length in several different places. But, the bottom line is that surrender increases SCORE dramatically. What may be worth 0.07% to the BS strategy player can be worth a large multiple of that to the counter.

    You surrender more often with very large bets out, so the value to the wide-spreading counter is much greater than to the basic strategist, who can't gain anything by bet-spreading or by knowing when to alter surrender BS, according to the count.

    Don

  10. #23
    Oliver Loving
    Guest

    Oliver Loving: Re: Early or Late surrender?

    Thanks for the direction. I have justread everything about surrender in BJA3 and now understand your point.

    However, another issue has arisen in terms of the game I am currently playing (6 deck, DA2, DAS, S17, ENHC, ES10 70- 80% pen) relating to the fab four. I have been surrendering 14, 15 and 16 vs 10 regardless of count as that is BS for these rules. However, in the late surrender game surrendering 15 vs 10 is only right at non-negative counts and 14 is only right at +3. My question is "Are there negative counts at which it is better to hit 14 or 15 then surrender. This is a small private casino where wonging is not practical (often I am by myself) and given the rules, "play all" is quite acceptable anyways. Not sure if you have ever looked at this situation but if so would be interested in what you found and if not your "instinct" would be of interest

    > Do you have BJA3? I discuss this at length in several
    > different places. But, the bottom line is that
    > surrender increases SCORE dramatically. What may be
    > worth 0.07% to the BS strategy player can be worth a
    > large multiple of that to the counter.

    > You surrender more often with very large bets out, so
    > the value to the wide-spreading counter is much
    > greater than to the basic strategist, who can't gain
    > anything by bet-spreading or by knowing when to alter
    > surrender BS, according to the count.

    > Don

  11. #24
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Early or Late surrender?

    > My question is "Are there negative counts at
    > which it is better to hit 14 or 15 than surrender?

    Yes, there are indices for ES10, just as there are for LS.

    For Hi-Lo, I have only 4-deck values from both Wong and Braun. I'll give you both, all against the ten:

    12: 8,8
    13: 3,3
    14: 0,0
    7,7: -1,-2
    15: -2,-3
    16: -5,-6
    8,8: -2,-2
    17: 5,5

    Hope this helps.

    Don


  12. #25
    Oliver Loving
    Guest

    Oliver Loving: Re: Early or Late surrender?

    Thanks for the help and apologies - should have located that myself. Last time I read these sources BJA3 and PB, I had no access to games with surrender of any kind so it all went right by me

    > Yes, there are indices for ES10, just as there are for
    > LS.

    > For Hi-Lo, I have only 4-deck values from both Wong
    > and Braun. I'll give you both, all against the ten:

    > 12: 8,8
    > 13: 3,3
    > 14: 0,0
    > 7,7: -1,-2
    > 15: -2,-3
    > 16: -5,-6
    > 8,8: -2,-2
    > 17: 5,5

    > Hope this helps.

    > Don

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.