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Thread: Designated Driver: Reducing ROR while maintaining EV

  1. #14
    Trapper
    Guest

    Trapper: $500 bankroll

    > No shoes?

    Sure. You could wong shoes with a small spread if you are very diciplined. Wonging is a little more advanced and increases the distractions but if you can do it why not. This would be the lowest risk strategy with your bankroll.
    Your EV would be about $2 and you would still be playing with a greater risk than most would be comfortable with.

    > I am afraid of SD as the cards are dealt face down
    > making it difficult to count if not played head on vs.
    > the dealer, probably not too likely for SD,
    > particularly with low limits.

    Dog Hand has great advice below about playing SD. If you search the forum you will find equally good advice from Parker and others. The other nice thing about counting SD is the game is over so quick that your are back to a fresh deck frequently so losing the count is less of a big deal than with a shoe.

    > I have been "learning" for over three years
    > now, and did not spend all that time, effort, and
    > money(over $500) just to learn how to lose gracefully.

    > Sorry, I was just a bit frustrated about everybody
    > telling me to expect to lose a little.

    But didn't you learn about bankrolls and risk of ruin in those three years? Maybe you have been reading the wrong books. Try reading BJA and the section on Trip Bankroll in the Risk of Ruin chapter. Norm has lots of free calculators on his site that answer the questions you ask. Did you really think you can play blackjack and not "expect to lose a little"?

    I wouldn't think to advise you whether you should play or not. Its your money and only you know what it would mean to lose all or part of it but you should know the risk you are entering into and then you can decide. There are lots of tools. BJRM, CVCX, BJA III etc.


  2. #15
    Designated Driver
    Guest

    Designated Driver: Re: $500 bankroll

    > Sure. You could wong shoes with a small spread if you
    > are very diciplined. Wonging is a little more advanced
    > and increases the distractions but if you can do it
    > why not. This would be the lowest risk strategy with
    > your bankroll.
    > Your EV would be about $2 and you would still be
    > playing with a greater risk than most would be
    > comfortable with.

    Sounds good, I'll give it a try.

    > Dog Hand has great advice below about playing SD. If
    > you search the forum you will find equally good advice
    > from Parker and others. The other nice thing about
    > counting SD is the game is over so quick that your are
    > back to a fresh deck frequently so losing the count is
    > less of a big deal than with a shoe.

    > But didn't you learn about bankrolls and risk of ruin
    > in those three years? Maybe you have been reading the
    > wrong books. Try reading BJA and the section on Trip
    > Bankroll in the Risk of Ruin chapter. Norm has lots of
    > free calculators on his site that answer the questions
    > you ask. Did you really think you can play blackjack
    > and not "expect to lose a little"?

    Of course I learned about bankrolls and ROR over my three plus years of study. Also variance, SD and EV too. It's just that I couldn't "scrape up" a bigger gambling stake in that same time period. :-)

    I have read BJA 3 very carefully and understand the situation, but it still doesn't change the fact that I wish to put my hard work to good use and profit(get back some of my investment) even with severely limited funds, otherwise all of my work was for not.

    > I wouldn't think to advise you whether you should play
    > or not. Its your money and only you know what it would
    > mean to lose all or part of it but you should know the
    > risk you are entering into and then you can decide.
    > There are lots of tools. BJRM, CVCX, BJA III etc.

    As for my limited bankroll. I heard that Anthony Curtis started out with only $20! And while he initially went broke, he did eventually get rich as well.

    But then again, I am certainly not Anthony Curtis play Uston APC after having come from Duke University either.

    Desi. D.

  3. #16
    Designated Driver
    Guest

    Designated Driver: Re: Not trying to be rude, but...

    > Are you shure you should be gambling with that $500?
    > If you need the money that badly you should put it
    > someplace safe. As I said, you will almost certainly
    > lose it all if you use it for blackjack. If that
    > doesn't bother you then go right ahead. Just don't
    > expect to double it at the tables. With a bankroll
    > that small your EV will be tiny, so even if you don't
    > go broke right away you will not earn very much from
    > playing with it.

    I am absolutely sure that I should be gambling. After all of my preperation I would be far less discouraged or frustrated if I lost it all then if I had never tried to win or play at all.

    You know what they say...'Tis better to have loved and lost...

    Just hope my grandma will feel the same way. Not to mention my uncle. ;-)

    > I'm not trying to be judgemental here. I just want to
    > make sure that you don't make any financial mistakes.

    No problem. And I do appreciate your point of view. :-)

    > P.S. - Don't worry, you'll have PLENTY of friends when
    > you get some money! =)

    When I am done, I will have more friends than I will know what to do with along with more money than I could ever give away.

    Oh yeah, when I double up my bankroll or more, I will surely let you all know. You can count on that!

    Of course when I lose it all, I won't say anything. :-)

    Cordially,
    Desi. D.


  4. #17
    Designated Driver
    Guest

    Designated Driver: Re: Reducing ROR while maintaining EV

    Thanks for the encouragement Jay. I enjoyed your trip report as it was quite inspiring. Hopefully I will be so good, and get so lucky.

    And who knows, maybe I will see you in downtown LV sometime over the next week, if it's before the Super Bowl.

    Good luck on you next trip,
    Desi. D.

    > DD -

    > I'm a red chip player who uses KO and a handful of
    > indeces, play mainly SD & DD with a 1-6 spread. I
    > routinely hit Vegas with a $500 bankroll, but normally
    > have additional funds available via ATM if needed. My
    > last 9 or so trips I only hit the ATM twice, and only
    > one of those was a horrendous loss trip. In fact one
    > trip I never needed more than the 1st $100 out of
    > pocket. The rest of the trip was played on profit
    > starting from the first session. I try to limit my
    > sessions to an hour, but sometimes when I have my lady
    > friend along I can play longer (she becomes part of my
    > camoflage).

    > In order to get an idea of what one of my trips is
    > like, I invite you to read what I posted on the LV
    > Trip Reports website. It intentionally does not
    > mention advantage play, but you can read between the
    > lines. It also gives some examples of EV other than
    > counting cards.

    > I was new at this not so many years ago, and thanks to
    > the old Horseshoe, LV Club, and El Cortez I was able
    > to bring myself up to speed at low-limit single deck
    > games. Once conditions worsened, I added double deck
    > to my repertoire, and now can play a 6-decker
    > comfortably (but I prefer not to given a choice).

    > I've been reading a lot of your posts. My advice is -
    > don't sweat the math, pick a counting system you're
    > comfortable with, and practice as much as you can. I
    > still drill basic strategy and run counting sims
    > before a Vegas trip every time. I've been doing so
    > today as I'm hitting Vegas again next week.

    > Whatever you decide, have fun with it. Good luck &
    > good cards.

    > Jay

  5. #18
    jblaze
    Guest

    jblaze: advice

    You ask for advice yet you listen to none of it. You might as well play any game with your $500 if you are set on gambling, because that all you will be doing.

  6. #19
    Designated Driver
    Guest

    Designated Driver: Re: advice

    > You ask for advice yet you listen to none of it. You
    > might as well play any game with your $500 if you are
    > set on gambling, because that all you will be doing.

    So are you telling me not to play?

    I have waited a long time(a very hard task) which has gotten me nothing for over three years.

    I have also invested well over $500 in books, software and other learning materials, not to menition the countless hours I have spent practicing to beat this game.

    I listen to what is said, but I want to win my money back.

    If not, what was the point?

    Desi. D.

  7. #20
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: advice

    > I listen to what is said, but I want to win my money
    > back.

    > If not, what was the point?

    You seem to want to win your money back in one trip, which is unrealistic. Have you used your software to determine what your hourly EV and SD is? What is the probability that you will win $500 or more on this trip? What is the probability that you will lose $500?

    Example: 6D/S17/DAS/LS/4.5/6, spreading $5-20 for 20h, wong in/out at +2 HiLo. EV = $2.75/h, SD = $37/h, P(win) = 0.62%, P(bust) = 0.08%.

  8. #21
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: advice

    > ... what was the point?

    The point for you has become that, after $500 and countless hours over three years, you have finally come to the realization that the true statement .. 'blackjack can be beat by counting cards' .. does not equate to quaranteed immediate gratification.

    You are a smart guy. If you read the right books and used the right software properly over the last three years, they would have all have been screaming this message to you. Again, you are a smart guy. So, you either got a hold of a bunch of bad literature, it could happen, or ..

    .. more likely, the expecations on your life, on this game, on this trip with grandma's money and uncle's time, have changed; and probably recently.

    Playing with scared money generally never works out .. and this $500 in your pocket is beginning to look like a deer in the headlights; more panic stricken every day.

  9. #22
    Dog Hand
    Guest

    Dog Hand: Oops! Nice Catch, Wolverine... We Canines Need To Stick Together! *NM*


  10. #23
    AutomaticMonkey
    Guest

    AutomaticMonkey: Listen to these guys!

    > So are you telling me not to play?

    > I have waited a long time(a very hard task) which has
    > gotten me nothing for over three years.

    > I have also invested well over $500 in books, software
    > and other learning materials, not to menition the
    > countless hours I have spent practicing to beat this
    > game.

    > I listen to what is said, but I want to win my money
    > back.

    > If not, what was the point?

    > Desi. D.

    The people who post here have combined knowledge greater than in any book you can buy, and they give it away for free. We don't spend our time posting here because we like lying to novice players.

    I can blow through $500 in one hand, and have, many times. It's frustrating to not be able to play when you know how to play, but it is even more frustrating to undertake the expense and planning for a BJ trip and have it aborted at the very beginning because you ran out of money. You will spend the rest of the trip JO in your filthy motel room because that will be all you have the funds to do. It will be a long and unpleasant few days. You can get yourself into serious trouble of other kinds too, as an inexperienced person in a strange and dangerous town with no money.

    If it takes you 3 years to acquire $500 for learning tools and $500 for a bankroll, you are in no position to be playing blackjack in casinos. It's no shame. I'm in no position to play black chip games, some people here are in no position to be playing green chip games, you happen to be in no position to play at all.

    However $500 is enough for online play. blackjackforumonline.com has a very good forum for bonus hustling and in a couple of months you can easily turn your $500 into $1000 or $2000. At that point you can start to think about playing the red chip games in downtown LV. But it still won't be very lucrative, especially if you have to travel to get there.

  11. #24
    Saboteur
    Guest

    Saboteur: Wolverines are weasels, not canines ;) *NM*


  12. #25
    Dog Hand
    Guest

    Dog Hand: Oops Again! Guess I Was "Barking Up The Wrong (Family) Tree" ;-) *NM*


  13. #26
    Saboteur
    Guest

    Saboteur: LOL! Great comeback! :) *NM*


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