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Thread: ShoelessD: % favorable

  1. #1
    ShoelessD
    Guest

    ShoelessD: % favorable

    What is % of finding a favorable, plus count, table as soon as one walks in?

    With ROR being so high for players with small bankrolls, wouldn't it, in theory, be better to wager the whole amount on the first plus hand?

  2. #2
    Lightning
    Guest

    Lightning: Re: % favorable

    > What is % of finding a favorable, plus
    > count, table as soon as one walks in?

    Fairly low I think.

    One, as soon as you walk in you won't know the count. However, let's assume we mean one of the first tables examined.

    Two, how many decks are in play will weigh in. More decks will take longer for a decent count.

    Three, You might find a favorable count, but no spot available to play.

    Four, How often when looking at a new game does a favorable count develope. Or what percentage of the time does this occur. Bassically it is the same for the first deck you see as any other.

    > With ROR being so high for players with
    > small bankrolls, wouldn't it, in theory, be
    > better to wager the whole amount on the
    > first plus hand?

    Let's assume the first plus hand (this depends on the system) puts the player at a 1 percent advantage. So the chance to win is 51% and chance to loose 49%. Just a little better than a coin flip. Almost an even chance at loosing the entire amout bet. But what happens if you need to double, split, or take insurance, you'd have no money if the entire bankroll was wagered. Also, that 1 percent advantage assumed you could double etc. so you are not really at a one percent advantage.

    That said, if the bankroll was very low, it may not be worth your time to grind out a profit. So then, instead of one big bet, it might be worth it to break the bankroll up into 5 units or so. Hit a good table and take your chances and play up to five bets (less if units are needed for doubling etc.) and "gamble." Doing this, be "prepared" for a hugh loss! If you win, walk away and do't push your luck.

    Playing at the lower stakes though is good practice and a way to build confidance that things are working. So anyone interested in this endeavor could play the lower stakes for fun and practice and add more their stake from other sources when a track record of a decent win rate had beed establsihed.

    Risk depends most on number of units than bankroll size. A small bankroll broke into many units is less risky than a largre on broken into fewer units.

    Some of the best players have experienced some extreme loosing streaks. The risk in this game is real.

    Hope this helps.

  3. #3
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Corrections

    > Let's assume the first plus hand (this
    > depends on the system) puts the player at a
    > 1 percent advantage. So the chance to win is
    > 51% and chance to loose 49%.

    First, that would be a 2% edge, not 1% (51% - 49% = 2%). Second, it isn't the chance to win or lose (note spelling), it's the expectation, which isn't the same thing. We rarely win more hands than we lose. But, we win more money than we lose, because of doubles, splits and naturals, which pay 3 to 2.

    Don

  4. #4
    Lightning
    Guest

    Lightning: Re: Corrections

    > First, that would be a 2% edge, not 1% (51%
    > - 49% = 2%). Second, it isn't the chance to
    > win or lose (note spelling), it's the
    > expectation, which isn't the same thing. We
    > rarely win more hands than we lose. But, we
    > win more money than we lose, because of
    > doubles, splits and naturals, which pay 3 to
    > 2.

    > Don

    Thanks for the corrections.

    Indeed I concur that would be a 2% edge, not 1%, trying for simplicity I introduced an error. But the point is still intact about one bet being "near" an even game.

    And I also agree that a one percent edge, does not really translate directly into a one better percent chance of wining a hand (due to double, splitting etc.). This would reinforce why not to put ones entire bankroll on a single bet since that the lost opportunities to double and such reduce the advantage. (Not to mention risk...)

    I should have run spell check since there a few spelling errors due to my rushing and last minute edit. Please accept my apologies for getting careless.

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