Rod: counting cards face-down

[Rod]

Has anybody tried to create a strategy based on the total number of cards dealt, w/o paying attention to what the values of the cards are? For instance, if players and dealer hit twice on average for the first round in a one deck game, then we can infer that lots of low cards have likely been taken out of the deck, right?

I used to search for a better counting system, in vain; now I'm searching for a simpler one, surely in vain once again.

[Parker]

> Has anybody tried to create a strategy based
> on the total number of cards dealt, w/o
> paying attention to what the values of the
> cards are? For instance, if players and
> dealer hit twice on average for the first
> round in a one deck game, then we can infer
> that lots of low cards have likely been
> taken out of the deck, right?

Some research has been done on this, mostly to aid in counting "blind pitch" games (in which cards are not exposed when not necessary for play). I don't think it is possible to gain enough information just from this alone to gain an edge, especially in a shoe game.

Also, doing this makes some assumptions regarding the skill of the other players, which may or may not be the case.

> I used to search for a better counting
> system, in vain; now I'm searching for a
> simpler one, surely in vain once again.

Your search need not be in vain.

If you want a simple system, I strongly recommend that you pick up a copy of Blackjack Bluebook II, by Fred Renzey. His book contains the simplest systems I have ever seen that will actually give you an edge. It is available from our online catalog, and I have conveniently provided a link below.

Blackjack Bluebook II

[Sun Runner]

> I used to search for a better counting
> system, in vain; now I'm searching for a
> simpler one, surely in vain once again.

Better than what? Simpler than what?

Do you count now?

[SpiderMan]

> Some research has been done on this, mostly
> to aid in counting "blind pitch"
> games (in which cards are not exposed when
> not necessary for play). I don't think it is
> possible to gain enough information just
> from this alone to gain an edge, especially
> in a shoe game.

> Also, doing this makes some assumptions
> regarding the skill of the other players,
> which may or may not be the case.

> Your search need not be in vain.

> If you want a simple system, I strongly
> recommend that you pick up a copy of
> Blackjack Bluebook II, by Fred Renzey. His
> book contains the simplest systems I have
> ever seen that will actually give you an
> edge. It is available from our online
> catalog, and I have conveniently provided a
> link below.

Parker,

In most Vegas 1D pitch games (not blind pitch), will the dealer turn over his hole card if u bust (taking into consideration that u are the only player)?

SpiderMan

[Don Schlesinger]

> In most Vegas 1D pitch games (not blind
> pitch), will the dealer turn over his hole
> card if u bust (taking into consideration
> that u are the only player)?

Yes. If he doesn't, don't play at that table.

Don

[Parker]

> Parker,

> In most Vegas 1D pitch games (not blind
> pitch), will the dealer turn over his hole
> card if u bust (taking into consideration
> that u are the only player)?

Yes. All cards are always turned face-up before they go into the discard tray so that the "eye" can get a look at them.

This is why "blind pitch" is rarely seen any more, except in a few scattered casinos that apparently don't know any better. It creates security issues, and it is not all that difficult to count around.

Sadly, real single deck (w/3:2 BJ payout) is rapidly becoming an endangered species in Las Vegas.

[SpiderMan]

> Yes. All cards are always turned face-up
> before they go into the discard tray so that
> the "eye" can get a look at them.

> This is why "blind pitch" is
> rarely seen any more, except in a few
> scattered casinos that apparently don't know
> any better. It creates security issues, and
> it is not all that difficult to count
> around.

> Sadly, real single deck (w/3:2 BJ payout) is
> rapidly becoming an endangered species in
> Las Vegas.

LOL!!!Funny!!

[Rod]

I used to experiment with multi-parameter counts but then I decided simplicity is worth a lot more than whatever edge you gain. Now I use KO, though usually at home, as a hobby. I just got a night job dealing blackjack for Monte Carlo parties and it occurred to me that, especially at a full 1D table (which is what I'm usually dealing) you could probably get all the info you need to know just by counting hits and busts.
I jerry-rigged a sim on SBA that values every card at +1, in a 1D game, with only two rounds dealt to 7 players. It gained a marginal advantage (.34%) over basic. But if my half-ass sim can get .34, without accounting for the additional info we could get from busts, doubles, splits, or BJs, I'd imagine a system that considered those factors could do a little better.
Anybody know of software that could test the idea?