MJ: Is the 8 deck AC game worth playing?

[MJ]

I use the KO Preferred system and wanted to know what BET SPREAD and BANKROLL I would need to use to earn $25/hr in the long run with a 20% ROR???

Lets assume the minimum bet is $15/hand(I can only play on weekends when table minimums are higher). The game would be your standard 8 deck AC game with about 70% penetration and really lousy rules like no resplitting of pairs.

I suppose I can incorportate the wong-out strategy used in the Knock-Out BJ if you guys think that would enhance my SCORE or EV.

Can somebody please offer some insight?

-MJ

[Ouchez]

[kiosk]

I don't much about counting but I am fairly aware of the AC/CT scene and I can click buttons on the www.bjstats.com site. Here are the variables I entered for your proposed game:

depth - fair (2 decks cut from 8)
decks - 8
rules - S17 DAS (no LS)
spread - 8 (default)
system - ko preferred

this yields an EV of +0.44% and a SCORE of 6.27. if you can find a shoe that cuts 1.5/8 instead of 2/8 (which would qualify as "good"), then it goes up to +0.56, 10.56. "deep" penetration of 1/8 would be 0.73, 17.71 but I will buy you 10 pounds of salt water taffy if you ever see that on the boardwalk.

however, according to Fine Tuner's monthly LV rating service on stanford's site, any SCORE below 50.00 is deemed "unplayable" so you are far from ideal conditions with the AC 8-deckers no matter how you slice it (pun intended). Even if you go to foxwoods or mohegan and add in the late surrender rule, a 1.5/8 game yields no better than 13.98.

from what I can gather mathematically, the difference in playing a 6 deck vs. 8 deck table is enough to kill the useful profitability of any counting system, even though at the same time it doesn't really affect basic strategy or ploppy play too much. Only one casino in vegas has an 8-deck SCORE over 50.00 (the soon to be converted Aladdin). But even with 6 deck shoes on the strip, seems you would need phenomenal penetration to reach 'playable' levels, something like a little less than one deck cut, which I'd imagine is not very realistic. A more typical 1.5/6 game with optimal rules (S17 DAS LS) gets a 28.90 with a KO 1-8 spread. The SCORE system seems to have the best ratings in the pitch games where penetration for 1 or 2 decks is at least 60-65%. If you can comfortably spread 1-4 on that table I'd presume you are home free, give or take 10000 hands...

some side notes on AC rules - almost all the stores do allow resplitting up to 4 hands except for aces. the only exception might be bally's/wild west which is (I believe) up to 3 hands, and the main floor of the claridge which allows you to split only once on ANY pair (stay away! or go upstairs to the VIP pit).

as for table limits on the weekends, I agree that $15/$25 is the majority but $10 can definitely be found when it's still daylight out. In the past I have found saturday dime action at the three trump casinos (donald = broke), sometimes resorts and tropicana (I think), and the aforewarned claridge. Also, the Borgata generally has a $5-50 table in the back pit which you could try spreading, but it is usually crowded 2 rows deep and I have no idea about heat. If you have the bankroll to spread green instead of red, then most of the AC premium pits deal 6 deck shoes instead of 8. But I don't think anyone on this board would recommend investing more money into what is already a mediocre game.

I suppose this is why I am still a flat bettor and part-time VP comp hustler, instead of an AP!

[MJ]

Seems like the AC game is a no win situation for counters. I wonder how the skilled Ace Tracker would fair?

> I don't much about counting but I am fairly
> aware of the AC/CT scene and I can click
> buttons on the www.bjstats.com site. Here
> are the variables I entered for your
> proposed game:

> depth - fair (2 decks cut from 8)
> decks - 8
> rules - S17 DAS (no LS)
> spread - 8 (default)
> system - ko preferred

> this yields an EV of +0.44% and a SCORE of
> 6.27. if you can find a shoe that cuts 1.5/8
> instead of 2/8 (which would qualify as
> "good"), then it goes up to +0.56,
> 10.56. "deep" penetration of 1/8
> would be 0.73, 17.71 but I will buy you 10
> pounds of salt water taffy if you ever see
> that on the boardwalk.

> however, according to Fine Tuner's monthly
> LV rating service on stanford's site, any
> SCORE below 50.00 is deemed
> "unplayable" so you are far from
> ideal conditions with the AC 8-deckers no
> matter how you slice it (pun intended). Even
> if you go to foxwoods or mohegan and add in
> the late surrender rule, a 1.5/8 game yields
> no better than 13.98.

> from what I can gather mathematically, the
> difference in playing a 6 deck vs. 8 deck
> table is enough to kill the useful
> profitability of any counting system, even
> though at the same time it doesn't really
> affect basic strategy or ploppy play too
> much. Only one casino in vegas has an 8-deck
> SCORE over 50.00 (the soon to be converted
> Aladdin). But even with 6 deck shoes on the
> strip, seems you would need phenomenal
> penetration to reach 'playable' levels,
> something like a little less than one deck
> cut, which I'd imagine is not very
> realistic. A more typical 1.5/6 game with
> optimal rules (S17 DAS LS) gets a 28.90 with
> a KO 1-8 spread. The SCORE system seems to
> have the best ratings in the pitch games
> where penetration for 1 or 2 decks is at
> least 60-65%. If you can comfortably spread
> 1-4 on that table I'd presume you are home
> free, give or take 10000 hands...

> some side notes on AC rules - almost all the
> stores do allow resplitting up to 4 hands
> except for aces. the only exception might be
> bally's/wild west which is (I believe) up to
> 3 hands, and the main floor of the claridge
> which allows you to split only once on ANY
> pair (stay away! or go upstairs to the VIP
> pit).

> as for table limits on the weekends, I agree
> that $15/$25 is the majority but $10 can
> definitely be found when it's still daylight
> out. In the past I have found saturday dime
> action at the three trump casinos (donald =
> broke), sometimes resorts and tropicana (I
> think), and the aforewarned claridge. Also,
> the Borgata generally has a $5-50 table in
> the back pit which you could try spreading,
> but it is usually crowded 2 rows deep and I
> have no idea about heat. If you have the
> bankroll to spread green instead of red,
> then most of the AC premium pits deal 6 deck
> shoes instead of 8. But I don't think anyone
> on this board would recommend investing more
> money into what is already a mediocre game.

> I suppose this is why I am still a flat
> bettor and part-time VP comp hustler,
> instead of an AP!

[FLASH]

Winning one and a half units per hour is very very do'able with a rather high R O R of 20% I am not good at crunching the ROR #'s which require me to look up the Standard deviation on this particular game. I suspect that you will need to spread, at minimum, 24-1 ($15 - $360) The bankroll requirement is the problematic issue. Do you have enough to survive losing 2 dozen Max bets in your pockets? Is even that enough. Personally I NEVER sit down with less than 1,000 times the table minimum IN my POCKETS. I consider that barely satisfactory. So, my reccomendation is that you not attempt this with less than 15K in your trousers, and even then NOT unless you are quite experienced and knowledgable.