Aaron Oz: Low Stakes Beginner

[Aaron Oz]

I've been using Norms CVBJ app for over a month now. What an incredible resource. Counting speed's coming up, and strategy percentage's are coming up nicely.

What about play for someone that's taking $100 with them to Vegas, or more likely Wendover in my case.

I've read most of the posts here, and one thing really did strike home. I'm not out to make a lot of money (obviously), but rather have a good time, make the $100 last, and maybe possibly go home up a little bit.

In CVBJ sim I've taken $60 on a $3 table to $120 nearly two dozen times, once to $340, and lost all $60 once. Usually this all happens withing a couple hours of play each time.

Is this a realistic scenario when I go 'live', assuming perfect play? Maybe more appropriately, are $3 tables ever realistic in Vegas or Wendover? I'm guessing it would have to afternoon play, but where?

Last question... I remember a really nice dealer telling me that I shouldn't play the dealer (him) by myself. He said it gave the dealer an extra advantage doing one-on-one play. How's that possible? Mathmatically I don't see it, but I'd like to hear anyone's insight. I'm guess that he was tired and preferred to stand rather than deal cards.

[Ouchez]

> I've been using Norms CVBJ app for over a
> month now. What an incredible resource.
> Counting speed's coming up, and strategy
> percentage's are coming up nicely.

> What about play for someone that's taking
> $100 with them to Vegas, or more likely
> Wendover in my case.

> I've read most of the posts here, and one
> thing really did strike home. I'm not out to
> make a lot of money (obviously), but rather
> have a good time, make the $100 last, and
> maybe possibly go home up a little bit.

> In CVBJ sim I've taken $60 on a $3 table to
> $120 nearly two dozen times, once to $340,
> and lost all $60 once. Usually this all
> happens withing a couple hours of play each
> time.

> Is this a realistic scenario when I go
> 'live', assuming perfect play? Maybe more
> appropriately, are $3 tables ever realistic
> in Vegas or Wendover? I'm guessing it would
> have to afternoon play, but where?

> Last question... I remember a really nice
> dealer telling me that I shouldn't play the
> dealer (him) by myself. He said it gave the
> dealer an extra advantage doing one-on-one
> play. How's that possible? Mathmatically I
> don't see it, but I'd like to hear anyone's
> insight. I'm guess that he was tired and
> preferred to stand rather than deal cards.
>

with a $100 and being new you want to play the lowest stake table you can find and with two other players. There is NO disadvatage to playing heads up, especially for A *SKILLED* COUNTER, THIS IS WHAT YOU WANT.

Good cards.

Ouchez.

[Sonny]

> Maybe more appropriately, are $3 tables ever
> realistic in Vegas or Wendover? I'm guessing it
> would have to afternoon play, but where?

You should have no problem finding $2-$3 tables in Wendover. I think any place you go should have them. I don't know how crowded the casinos are going to be, and I don't think most of them have very many tables open. This might be your only problem.

-Sonny-

[Brick Waller]

I suppose if people get lucky so do machines. These sims are showing some very,very,lucky results. In real conditions your win rate will be far less. Are these actual sims or are you playing a game,what's the betspread? Are you using any variables to create bias conditions?

Brick

> I've been using Norms CVBJ app for over a
> month now. What an incredible resource.
> Counting speed's coming up, and strategy
> percentage's are coming up nicely.

> What about play for someone that's taking
> $100 with them to Vegas, or more likely
> Wendover in my case.

> I've read most of the posts here, and one
> thing really did strike home. I'm not out to
> make a lot of money (obviously), but rather
> have a good time, make the $100 last, and
> maybe possibly go home up a little bit.

> In CVBJ sim I've taken $60 on a $3 table to
> $120 nearly two dozen times, once to $340,
> and lost all $60 once. Usually this all
> happens withing a couple hours of play each
> time.

> Is this a realistic scenario when I go
> 'live', assuming perfect play? Maybe more
> appropriately, are $3 tables ever realistic
> in Vegas or Wendover? I'm guessing it would
> have to afternoon play, but where?

> Last question... I remember a really nice
> dealer telling me that I shouldn't play the
> dealer (him) by myself. He said it gave the
> dealer an extra advantage doing one-on-one
> play. How's that possible? Mathmatically I
> don't see it, but I'd like to hear anyone's
> insight. I'm guess that he was tired and
> preferred to stand rather than deal cards.
>

[Parker]

> I've been using Norms CVBJ app for over a
> month now. What an incredible resource.
> Counting speed's coming up, and strategy
> percentage's are coming up nicely.

Glad to hear it.

> What about play for someone that's taking
> $100 with them to Vegas, or more likely
> Wendover in my case.

As long as you fully understand that you could very easily lose the entire $100 in your first hour or two of play, no problem.

> I've read most of the posts here, and one
> thing really did strike home. I'm not out to
> make a lot of money (obviously), but rather
> have a good time, make the $100 last, and
> maybe possibly go home up a little bit.

> In CVBJ sim I've taken $60 on a $3 table to
> $120 nearly two dozen times, once to $340,
> and lost all $60 once. Usually this all
> happens withing a couple hours of play each
> time.

Well, let's see. I'll assume that "nearly two dozen" plus the other two sessions you mentioned is 24 sessions total, for 48 hours of total play. This makes your total buy-in ($60 x 24) $1440. You ended up with $2920 ($120 x 22 + $340 - $60) for a total net win of $1480. Your expectation is to win roughly a couple of units per hour, or $144 for 48 hours of play. So, you've been winning at roughly ten times expectation. To say you're on the positive side of expectation is putting it mildly.

> Is this a realistic scenario when I go
> 'live', assuming perfect play?

Short answer: No.

Besides, you probably won't play perfectly.

Realistic is knowing that your expectation is a couple of units per hour, and also knowing that variance means that you will likely do much better . . . or much worse.

> Maybe more
> appropriately, are $3 tables ever realistic
> in Vegas or Wendover? I'm guessing it would
> have to afternoon play, but where?

I haven't spent much time in Wendover, but I don't think finding $3 tables would be a problem. In Vegas, you can find $3 single deck at the El Cortez and Western. You can find $2 double deck games at some of the small seedy locals joints in North Las Vegas.

Just don't expect to find $3 games at any of the major strip properties.

> Last question... I remember a really nice
> dealer telling me that I shouldn't play the
> dealer (him) by myself. He said it gave the
> dealer an extra advantage doing one-on-one
> play. How's that possible? Mathmatically I
> don't see it, but I'd like to hear anyone's
> insight. I'm guess that he was tired and
> preferred to stand rather than deal cards.
>

Don't put much stock in anything you hear from dealers. Just because they know how to deal the game does not mean that they know anything about playing it.

However, there is a grain of truth in what the dealer said. For basic strategy players, playing with a negative expectation, head-up is bad because they lose their money more rapidly due to the increased number of hand/hour, although there is no increase in the dealer's actual advantage.

For a card counter, heads-up is great because we are playing with an edge and want to get in as many hands/hour as possible in order to reach the long run more quickly.

A beginning counter may find it more difficult to keep the count accurately in a heads-up game due to the rapid pace of the game.

[Aaron Oz]

I really appreciate the input.

I'm much better off understanding that I've been overly lucky. It has felt too 'easy' to be doing as well as I had been. It's interesting that sims tend to be luckier than real life. I would guess that it might be because a computer is unable to generate truely random numbers.

I just purchased a BJ layout felt, 6 decks of cards and a shoe yesterday. The wife has been kind enough to deal --and sure enough, I haven't been doing as well. That's life. For me it will need to be about the 'fun' of playing. At least until I have that $1000 stake and I can be more serious