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Thread: BJ1945: When is a game considered un-playable?

  1. #1
    BJ1945
    Guest

    BJ1945: When is a game considered un-playable?

    Is it based on EV,$/hr, basic rules?

  2. #2
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Depends . . .

    > Is it based on EV,$/hr, basic rules?

    It can be a combination of these, and it is different for different people.

    One common standard used is any game with a SCORE of 50 or above is considered a good game.

    Some people might consider any game with positive EV to be playable, especially if it is at a nice casino and their level of play is sufficient to earn lots of comps.

    Another "benchmark" commonly quoted is that a good game should have an EV of at least two units per hour.

    Heat is another factor. A game might have mediocre rules and penetration, but if huge spreads go unnoticed and/or heavy wonging is acceptable, then that game might be playable, and even desirable.

    OTOH, a game might have great rules and pen, but if they boot anyone who seems to have a clue how to play, then the game is unplayable.

    Finally, betting level is also a big factor. What is unplayable to a red chip player may be quite lucrative to someone betting heavy black. Likewise, simple table minimums may make a game "unplayable" for a low stakes bettor.

  3. #3
    AdvantageRay
    Guest

    AdvantageRay: Re: Depends . . .

    > Likewise, simple table minimums may
    > make a game "unplayable" for a low
    > stakes bettor.

    yeah like that one superior black table in SD I will probably never have the bankroll to play
    I drool everytime I see it in the CBJN....

  4. #4
    big slick
    Guest

    big slick: Re: Depends . . .

    > yeah like that one superior black table in
    > SD I will probably never have the bankroll
    > to play
    > I drool everytime I see it in the CBJN....

    how's the black table superior to the green tables at Stardust? I never paid attention to the black table conditions. Any different than their quarter tables that offer 55% pen, S17?

  5. #5
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Failure to communicate . . .

    > how's the black table superior to the green
    > tables at Stardust? I never paid attention
    > to the black table conditions. Any different
    > than their quarter tables that offer 55%
    > pen, S17?

    In this case, I believe that AdvantageRay was using "SD" in reference to San Diego, more specifically the single deck game with DAS and late surrender that can be found at Barona casino.

    This game is in the high limit room and always $100 min, hence "black table."

    Of course, I could be mistaken.

  6. #6
    bigplayer
    Guest

    bigplayer: Re: When is a game considered un-playable?

    a game is unplayable when variance is so much larger than eV that you can't get into the long run in a reasonable amount of time.

    For example, an 8 deck game with S17 DAS rules spreading 1-12 wonging out at -1 and 5.5 decks dealt out of 8 spreading 2x10-2x120 will yeild a win of $30 per hour..(0.73%) but your SCORE is only $18 per 100 and you would have to play about 2200 hours to have a 95% chance of being ahead. For a good game it might only take 500 hours to have the same chance of being at break-even or ahead.

    This is why even though you have an edge, it is not really a useful edge...you are creating variance and simply not making much progress toward your ultimate goal of winning money from the casino.

  7. #7
    AdvantageRay
    Guest

    AdvantageRay: Re: When is a game considered un-playable?

    Well said..right on the nose! Thanks..

    D

  8. #8
    AdvantageRay
    Guest

    AdvantageRay: Re: Failure to communicate . . .

    Yes Parker that is the one. Do you know how the heat is on that game? I assume its quite considerable...

    D

  9. #9
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Barona

    > Yes Parker that is the one. Do you know how
    > the heat is on that game? I assume its quite
    > considerable...

    It's not as bad as you might think. Perhaps due to the influence of Max Rubin (author of Comp City) who is some sort of consultant there, they have a fairly enlightened attitude toward card counters.

    If your max bet isn't over $500 or so, and you toke the dealers occasionally, use a little common sense, and don't spread too brazenly, they will let you play.

    If you suddenly find that you're only getting two rounds heads-up, it is their subtle way of letting you know that you're not fooling anyone. :-)

  10. #10
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: New definition of variance?

    I've never seen (I haven't seen much) variance used as bigplayer is using it. Variance as a function of game conditions and variance as a possible creation of the player are contrary to everything I've read here and elsewhere. My previous impression was that positive and negative variance are accidental; variance simply happens. Are you saying that one is able to predict variance and control (create) variance in the short term? I previously thought that what an AP considers variance is what less informed players consider luck. Many posters here seem to use the terms interchangably. Please tell me where I might read about this. Thanks.

    Sam

    > a game is unplayable when variance is so
    > much larger than eV that you can't get into
    > the long run in a reasonable amount of time.

    > For example, an 8 deck game with S17 DAS
    > rules spreading 1-12 wonging out at -1 and
    > 5.5 decks dealt out of 8 spreading
    > 2x10-2x120 will yeild a win of $30 per
    > hour..(0.73%) but your SCORE is only $18 per
    > 100 and you would have to play about 2200
    > hours to have a 95% chance of being ahead.
    > For a good game it might only take 500 hours
    > to have the same chance of being at
    > break-even or ahead.

    > This is why even though you have an edge, it
    > is not really a useful edge...you are
    > creating variance and simply not making much
    > progress toward your ultimate goal of
    > winning money from the casino.

  11. #11
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: New definition of variance?

    >Please tell me where I might read about this.
    > Thanks.

    Variance is a statistical measure of dispersion of results around the mean, or average, result. It comes with every game and set of rules, conditions, and spread that the player uses. So, of course, you can measure, or express, the variance for each game you contemplate.

    All such standard deviations (square roots of variance) are catalogued in the Chapter 10 charts of BJA3.

    Don

  12. #12
    Sonny
    Guest

    Sonny: More specific definition of variance

    > Variance as a function of game conditions
    > and variance as a possible creation of the
    > player are contrary to everything I've read
    > here and elsewhere.

    Variance is very much a function of the player and the game conditions.

    For example, a larger bet spread will increase your advantage but also increase your variance since you are pushing out higher top bets. The larger your spread, the more your results will tend to cluster around the results of those few big bets. A player betting $5-$50 will have smaller swings than a player betting $5-$100 even thought the later is playing with a larger advantage.

    The game rules are also important. If a blackjack game offers surrender then you will have the opportunity to forfeit half of your bet instead of losing it all. This becomes much more valuable when you play with larger spreads, such as in six or eight-deck games. Since the results will cluster around those few top bets, being able to pull back half of your big bets in bad situations can be VERY valuable in reducing your variance.

    > My previous impression was that positive and
    > negative variance are accidental; variance
    > simply happens... I previously thought that
    > what an AP considers variance is what less
    > informed players consider luck.

    Exactly. There is no way to avoid variance. That is why they call it gambling - it is not a sure thing. Even someone playing with a 90% advantage will not win every time, so even he will experience some variance.

    > Are you saying that one is able to predict
    > variance and control (create) variance in the
    > short term?

    Predict, yes. Control, no. Short term, no. This is a little trickier.

    We can predict variance in terms of standard deviation. Knowing our standard deviation will give you a range that you can expect to be ahead or behind after a given amount of play.

    For example, let's say that my betting unit is $5, my EV is 2 units/hour and my standard deviation is 20 units/hour. We can determine this range by subtracting and adding our SD from our EV.

    This means that roughly 67% of the time I should be within one SD which is between -$90 ($10 EV - $100 SD) and $110 ($10 EV + $100 SD) and roughly 97% of the time I will be within 2 SDs which is between -$190 ($10 EV - $200 SD) and $210 ($10 EV + $200 SD). This is how we predict variance.

    Controlling variance is a much more difficult task. There is no way to actually control how much "luck" you have, so the only way to control it is to limit your variance as much as possible. This will reduce the effect that variance has on you. This includes things like looking for games with surrender, sitting out negative hands, playing with a higher advantage, playing at a lower level (reds instead of greens or blacks), etc.

    Then comes the part about the short term. There is absolutely NO WAY to control your variance in the short term (no matter what John Patrick says!). Within an hour of play, anything can happen (at least, anything within 3 standard deviations!). The ONLY way to control your variance is to get into the long run sooner. The sooner your EV overcomes your SD the sooner you will be assured of a win. The smaller your SD is the sooner your EV will overcome it.

    For instance, someone playing with a 40 unit SD/hour will have larger fluctuations (both positive and negative) and will have to play for longer before he is assured of a win than a player with a 20 unit SD/hour. Sure, he may get luck in the first few sessions and triple his money, but that is not a sure thing. Gamblers pray for luck, Advantage Players pray for EV. The smaller your SD, the smaller the fluctuations will be and the sooner you will be able to dig yourself out of the hole. This is why a smaller SD will allow you to play fewer hands and still assure you of a win much sooner.

    -Sonny-

  13. #13
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Nice answer -- well expressed! *NM*


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