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Thread: sam: check me on this: luck/variance

  1. #53
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: About STOP-LOSS strategies

    > I'm not disagreeing, with regards to the
    > entire bankroll for your session. You are
    > making it less likely to completely ruin if
    > you never play to the point of ruin.

    Yes, but I don't play to the point of ruin only in these cases where I know my ROR for the remainder of the session is too high.
    Let me put it in another way: First let's focus on your session-BR. Say also that you decide to keep your sessions short (1 hour).
    So you grab $X and face to the casino. Doesn't matter the rules for the moment.
    Would you go with 1 unit? 2 units? maybe 6?
    Probably the answer to these questions is NO. Why? Because it's suicidal. Your ROR is very high and you'll probably come out as a net loser.
    The smart thing to do here before facing to the casino is to take more money in order to avoid situations like these. How much money? All your BR? Half your BR?
    Now you calculate that taking 30 units would be safer (Session-ROR = 10%) and decide to assume that risk. It's obvious that if you take all your money you won't have to worry about this problem.
    Now, we all hope to start winning but if after half an hour of play you're down to 6 units; Would you now play? I know that playing those 6 units were part of the original 10% which you already accepted but ... isn't it better not to play in these situations? Isn't it similar to the situation I mentioned above?

    > What I was suggesting though is that since
    > you're not playing those last chips - your
    > actually in effect running into ruin for a
    > smaller trip bankroll. Just because you have
    > the extra units with you doesn't mean they
    > count towards your trip bankroll if you
    > don't use them.

    Yes, probably the effect is the one you mention.

    > How? Does saving those chips on this trip
    > mean you won't lose them in the long run?
    > Does it change you'r overall EV? To take it
    > to the extreme as you did, it's the same old
    > argument, if you were playing a game with an
    > ev of -1e-100, and you saved those extra
    > units by stopping early - would your ev then
    > become positive?

    Forget about the long run for the moment. We are talking about a session and how to make it worthwhile. If we think in terms of long run then why not go to the casino with 1 unit (or 6) and place them only when we have the edge? Why use trip-ruin calculations after all?

    > No you can't, but your ev for that 1 chip
    > was still positive. I did mention btw that I
    > would consider not playing with less than 6
    > units so I would be able to take advantage
    > of spliiting and DAS. So my effective
    > bankroll would be 6 units less.

    Your effective BR would be 6 units less but even with 7 units I wouldn't start a fresh shoe. Time to go and replenish my session-BR.

    > That's more a matter of the ability of the
    > sim and not the true math.

    I think I have a point but it's hard to be accepted without showing the numbers

    > I do, but I still respectfully disagree.

    You're welcome to disagree any time you want.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  2. #54
    MGP
    Guest

    MGP: Re: About STOP-LOSS strategies

    > Would you go with 1 unit? 2 units? maybe 6?
    > Probably the answer to these questions is
    > NO. Why? Because it's suicidal. Your ROR is
    > very high and you'll probably come out as a
    > net loser.

    > The smart thing to do here before facing to
    > the casino is to take more money in order to
    > avoid situations like these. How much money?
    > All your BR? Half your BR?
    > Now you calculate that taking 30 units would
    > be safer (Session-ROR = 10%) and decide to
    > assume that risk. It's obvious that if you
    > take all your money you won't have to worry
    > about this problem.

    Agreed.

    > Now, we all hope to start winning but if
    > after half an hour of play you're down to 6
    > units; Would you now play? I know that
    > playing those 6 units were part of the
    > original 10% which you already accepted but
    > ... isn't it better not to play in these
    > situations?

    I would say no. I think it would be better to play, but see below.

    > Forget about the long run for the moment. We
    > are talking about a session and how to make
    > it worthwhile. If we think in terms of long
    > run then why not go to the casino with 1
    > unit (or 6) and place them only when we have
    > the edge? Why use trip-ruin calculations
    > after all?

    > Your effective BR would be 6 units less but
    > even with 7 units I wouldn't start a fresh
    > shoe. Time to go and replenish my
    > session-BR.

    Ok, I think I understand but I'm not sure. Are you basically saying that you prefer to have enough to continue playing for your entire stay and if not then you leave and come back?

    You're right - no one would go with 6 or even 8 units, but the reason that I could see would be so that you don't waste time going back and forth after each bet. But if you're already there, then why not place that last bet?

    Let's say you lost the last units - how much time did you waste with that extra hand compared to the time to go back and forth? Let's say you win and get to keep playing - why is that bad?

    Anyways, I guess I'm probably just missing the point. Unless your point is that it takes a long time waiting to Wong in so you can play that last hand and the time could be better spent replenishing your bankroll. If that's the case, then that makes sense, but does it really take that long?

    Sincerely,
    MGP

  3. #55
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: About STOP-LOSS strategies

    > Ok, I think I understand but I'm not sure.
    > Are you basically saying that you prefer to
    > have enough to continue playing for your
    > entire stay and if not then you leave and
    > come back?

    Yes, but I not necessarily need to come back immediately. Could be the following day or the next week or the following trip. After all, it's all a very long session with breaks in the middle.

    > You're right - no one would go with 6 or
    > even 8 units, but the reason that I could
    > see would be so that you don't waste time
    > going back and forth after each bet. But if
    > you're already there, then why not place
    > that last bet?

    I wouldn't place that last bet because I'm unarmed. I'd need to load my weapons before playing again. However, I know of people that when they get to that point (1 chip left) they place it at a number in roulette. See what I mean? They know that they are ruined so they squander that last bet to be 100% sure that they are ruined.

    > Let's say you lost the last units - how much
    > time did you waste with that extra hand
    > compared to the time to go back and forth?
    > Let's say you win and get to keep playing -
    > why is that bad?

    That "Let's say you win" sounds like "what if you win given that your probability is 0.001?"

    > Anyways, I guess I'm probably just missing
    > the point. Unless your point is that it
    > takes a long time waiting to Wong in so you
    > can play that last hand and the time could
    > be better spent replenishing your bankroll.
    > If that's the case, then that makes sense,
    > but does it really take that long?

    I think that there is a point (let's call it STOP-LOSS or point of unacceptable ROR) where time is better spent replenishing your Session-BR.
    The thing is: How do we calculate it?

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  4. #56
    MGP
    Guest

    MGP: Re: About STOP-LOSS strategies

    > Yes, but I not necessarily need to come back
    > immediately. Could be the following day or
    > the next week or the following trip. After
    > all, it's all a very long session with
    > breaks in the middle.

    Hehe - I thought we were forgetting about that for now.

    > I wouldn't place that last bet because I'm
    > unarmed. I'd need to load my weapons before
    > playing again.

    This sounds like wanting to feel more comfortable.

    > However, I know of people
    > that when they get to that point (1 chip
    > left) they place it at a number in roulette.
    > See what I mean? They know that they are
    > ruined so they squander that last bet to be
    > 100% sure that they are ruined.

    That is different - you're not playing a positive EV game.

    > That "Let's say you win" sounds
    > like "what if you win given that your
    > probability is 0.001?"

    Actually - since you're playing with a positive ev, p > 0.5 that you won't ruin

    > I think that there is a point (let's call it
    > STOP-LOSS or point of unacceptable ROR)
    > where time is better spent replenishing your
    > Session-BR.
    > The thing is: How do we calculate it?

    I understand now that the goal is not to run out of funds during a shoe so that you never get the feeling of lost opportunity, but I still can't see how playing a hand with a positive EV, even if it's your last one, is a bad thing if you're planning on leaving anyway.

    Sincerely,
    MGP

  5. #57
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: About STOP-LOSS strategies

    > I understand now that the goal is not to run
    > out of funds during a shoe so that you never
    > get the feeling of lost opportunity, but I
    > still can't see how playing a hand with a
    > positive EV, even if it's your last one, is
    > a bad thing if you're planning on leaving
    > anyway.

    Yes, that's the whole idea. I won't start to play a new shoe if I don't have the necessary funds. Not only I need the money for the splits or doubles that might occur but I also need it for the high counts that I might get.
    So, if I'm armed I stay, otherwise I leave. I don't want to think where I might place those last chips. My style of play has some initial requirements.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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