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Thread: sam: check me on this: luck/variance

  1. #1
    sam
    Guest

    sam: check me on this: luck/variance

    There was a recent long thread on BJ21 about luck/variance with the usual lack of agreement. Am I correct in thinking that any gain in excess of the math is a positive variance and any loss in excess of the math is a negative variance? If this is so, then it seems to me there's no sense for an AP to play in a negative count(even flat betting) because he's hoping for a positive variance just as the BS-progression bettor is hoping for a lucky run. The suspicion of that similarity of play-all AP and luck-dependent BS-prog was a distressing thought for me. Could be the losing streak I'm presently on is shaking my confidence in the math. Seeing non-AP's winning while I'm losing....Well you know the story. All those postings attempting to distinguish AP variance from non-AP luck didn't help either.

    Thanks as always for explanations and help.

  2. #2
    Charlie_t_jr
    Guest

    Charlie_t_jr: Re: check me on this: luck/variance

    I'm most likely not the guy to give you a technical answer to this...but he's my crude attempt at few things.

    > There was a recent long thread on BJ21 about
    > luck/variance with the usual lack of
    > agreement. Am I correct in thinking that any
    > gain in excess of the math is a positive
    > variance and any loss in excess of the math
    > is a negative variance?

    The "gain" your asking about, I assume is $$ gained over a session, and not the advantaged gained. So, I suppose if you play 4 hrs, and your EV is $25hr, but you win $300, you've experienced a pos variance, but next session you might drop $500 (neg variance). So as you no doubt know and have read, looking at short term win/loss results are pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

    >If this is so, then
    > it seems to me there's no sense for an AP to
    > play in a negative count(even flat betting)
    > because he's hoping for a positive variance
    > just as the BS-progression bettor is hoping
    > for a lucky run. The suspicion of that
    > similarity of play-all AP and luck-dependent
    > BS-prog was a distressing thought for me.

    Could be your asking about 2 different things? "Gain" in $$ and "Gain" in advantage? Regardless if you are betting only in pos counts, you're still going to experience variance, pos & neg on each bet, you'll just have different EV, depending on the count.

    When you "play all", thats where your bet spread comes into action. You have to spread from min to max, to "gain" an advantage...even when you back count and wong in at pos count your still "spreading" your bets (0 to whatever your wong in bet may be).

    > Could be the losing streak I'm presently on
    > is shaking my confidence in the math. Seeing
    > non-AP's winning while I'm losing....Well
    > you know the story. All those postings
    > attempting to distinguish AP variance from
    > non-AP luck didn't help either.

    > Thanks as always for explanations and help.

    Once again that short term results thing...I'm sure I've made all this as clear as mud.

    Good luck
    Charlie_t_jr

  3. #3
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: check me on this: luck/variance

    > Am I correct in thinking that any
    > gain in excess of the math is a positive
    > variance and any loss in excess of the math
    > is a negative variance?

    I would agree that's correct.

    > If this is so, then
    > it seems to me there's no sense for an AP to
    > play in a negative count(even flat betting)
    > because he's hoping for a positive variance ..

    Again, would agree except that sometimes there are reasons to stay and flat bet a negative count. You would only do that if you thought the positives in doing so would eventually outweigh the known negative EV you were buying it to.

    Also, it's hard (impossible, really) to avoid the negative counts in pitch games; you just play through them knowing that the higher EV is worth the wait.

    And finally, if no MSE is allowed, your going to be forced to play in some negative counts.

    > The suspicion of that
    > similarity of play-all AP and luck-dependent
    > BS-prog was a distressing thought for me.

    No need for depression. There is no similarity to play-all AP play and BS play. BS play alone, if winning, is almost always simply 'good luck'.

    Some define good luck as short-term positive variance. That's fine, but I swear I have known people who experience 'short term positive variance' continually!

    > Could be the losing streak I'm presently on
    > is shaking my confidence in the math.

    Probably.

    > Seeing
    > non-AP's winning while I'm losing....Well
    > you know the story.

    Yes; it's a bummer man.

    But follow them around one afternoon if the depression gets overbearing. Usually, you can restore your faith in their pre-disposition to lose fairly quickly.

  4. #4
    Sonny
    Guest

    Sonny: Re: check me on this: luck/variance

    > Am I correct in thinking that any
    > gain in excess of the math is a positive
    > variance and any loss in excess of the math
    > is a negative variance?

    Yes, anything above or below your expectation is your variance.

    > If this is so, then it seems to me there's no
    > sense for an AP to play in a negative count
    > (even flat betting) because he's hoping for a
    > positive variance just as the BS-progression
    > bettor is hoping for a lucky run.

    The "play-all" player is not hoping for positive variance. He knows that his is playing through a losing situation, but he knows that his big bets in positive situations are going to overcome the losses of his small bets. He knows that he will lose, but he is using his bet spread to minimize his losses and maximize his wins.

    > The suspicion of that similarity of play-all AP
    > and luck-dependent BS-prog was a distressing
    > thought for me.

    The big difference is that luck-dependent BS-prog players are praying for luck, while APs are praying for expectation! We have an advantage over the casinos, the BS players don't. If it were up to us we would pray for NO LUCK AT ALL, that way we would ALWAYS earn our expectation every hour!

    Although positive variance is nice, if you completely rely on it you are not playing a winning game. The "play-all" players are able to win despite the negative variance. Of course, if you don't play through negative hands and only play positive situations you will reduce your variance quite a bit. However, it is up to the player to decide what strategy will work best for the chosen game.

    > Seeing non-AP's winning while I'm
    > losing....Well you know the story.

    I sure do. Next time, follow the non-AP to his next table. You will feel much better after you see reality set in.

    > All those postings attempting to distinguish AP
    > variance from non-AP luck didn't help either.

    Even ploppies experience positive variance, but an AP doesn't rely on it. Like I said, we can win without any luck at all.

    -Sonny-

  5. #5
    Sonny
    Guest

    Sonny: You beat me to the punch by 15 minutes! *NM*


  6. #6
    Ouchez
    Guest

    Ouchez: Me and my "Pards" talk about this

    Seeing
    > non-AP's winning while I'm losing....Well
    > you know the story.

    often.

    We play at a table with a big betting ploppy or just a lucky player and at the end of the night we always have the money and they have tapped out! Happens all the time. This is where the skillz and discipline of an AP shine through.

    Regards,
    Ouchez.

  7. #7
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Excellent

    > If it were up to us we would pray for
    > NO LUCK AT ALL, that way we would ALWAYS
    > earn our expectation every hour!

    I never thought of it that way.

    ... if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all ...

  8. #8
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: check me on this: luck/variance

    > Of course, if you don't play
    > through negative hands and only play
    > positive situations you will reduce your
    > variance quite a bit.

    No, actually, if you bet optimally, with the same bankroll, and, therefore, the same ROR, you will have greater variance in back-counting situations. Of course, you will have greater expectation as well.

    But, since ROR is a function of EV/var, by definition, if we keep ROR constant and raise EV, we will have to be raising variance along with it.

    Don

  9. #9
    paranoid android
    Guest

    paranoid android: Re: Me and my "Pards" talk about this

    > We play at a table with a big betting ploppy
    > or just a lucky player and at the end of the
    > night we always have the money and they have
    > tapped out!

    Not quite always (or even close to always). An AP player's expectation is only slightly above zero and a ploppy's expectation is only slightly below zero. The game has a high degree of variance. Both sides experience this on the positive and negative sides. On a single night, trip, or even longer, it would not be uncommon for the ploppy to be ahead of the AP player. I frequently go with a bunch of non-AP friends to Vegas. There is almost always at least one person in the group that wins more than me on each trip (or lost less than me). That's just the way it is. Of course over the course of all the trips combined, I'm sure I'm the only net winner in the group.

    It's not at all uncommon for ploppies to win in the short run. If they didn't, they would soon stop playing (I think).

  10. #10
    Ouchez
    Guest

    Ouchez: OK, not always, almost always, :). *NM*


  11. #11
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: charlie_t_jr, Sun Runner, & Sonny

    Thanks for the responses. Charlie, I guess I lose sight of the long term when the short term is so damn miserable. Sun Runner, I play the 6d game at my casino. The DD is unplayable there: 50% pen, rotten rules. The 6d game has been hanging in the -12(KO) zone and if it drops to the key or slightly below for a hand or two I've been losing the bumped bets. I still gets stiffs regardless the count. Tired of hearing me whine? Your comments on luck and variance always seem grounded in actual play. Sonny, I'd take that no luck at all, bad and good, just to get a shot or two in. In fact, as soon as I'm off here, I'm praying like an altar boy for just that. Thanks again.

    > I never thought of it that way.

    > ... if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no
    > luck at all ...

  12. #12
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: my narrowly focused sense of variance

    > No, actually, if you bet optimally, with the
    > same bankroll, and, therefore, the same ROR,
    > you will have greater variance in
    > back-counting situations. Of course, you
    > will have greater expectation as well.

    Don,

    I have been thinking of a very narrowly focused variance. A + count and I have the advantage and therefore my chance of losing is less than in a - count. A - count and I'm more apt to lose than win. My dad would call this "shade tree math." Nothing is ever as simple as that. In Wong's ProBJ, these things are covered and I need to spend some time with those pages. Thanks for your help.

    > But, since ROR is a function of EV/var, by
    > definition, if we keep ROR constant and
    > raise EV, we will have to be raising
    > variance along with it.

    > Don

  13. #13
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: ROR. EV. Variance, etc.

    > In Wong's ProBJ,
    > these things are covered and I need to spend
    > some time with those pages. Thanks for your
    > help.

    Don is too modest to point this out, but these things are covered in much greater detail in his own book, Blackjack Attack.

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