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Thread: sam: check me on this: luck/variance

  1. #27
    Dancer
    Guest

    Dancer: Re: check me on this: reddux

    > Then, is it possible to minimize losses for a
    > session by stopping play after early losses
    > exceed EV for the rest of the session?

    There are lots of variables here, but let's assume your hourly EV is approximately 1.5 units and you plan to play a 1 hour session.

    If you double down on your first hand and lose, you've already exceeded your EV for the remainder of the session. It must be time to stop, right?

    From your previous posts, you've obviously given this a considerable of thought. Unfortunately, you're wasting brain power. If you're that concerned about variance, forget BJ and open a savings account.

  2. #28
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: check me on this: reddux

    Dancer,

    I may not be able to get my mind around the ultimate uncertainties of the game and will likely stop play in the near future. I'm also hampered by a bankroll that doesn't usually meet the 100X max bet number. I watch lots of hands in addition to playing a good many--well, there I go again about what I observe. Another of my problems with the game. I've been a writer too long to stash my reliance on observation. Thanks for your kind attempt to steer me straight.

    Sam

    > There are lots of variables here, but let's
    > assume your hourly EV is approximately 1.5
    > units and you plan to play a 1 hour session.

    > If you double down on your first hand and
    > lose, you've already exceeded your EV for
    > the remainder of the session. It must be
    > time to stop, right?

    > From your previous posts, you've obviously
    > given this a considerable of thought.
    > Unfortunately, you're wasting brain power.
    > If you're that concerned about variance,
    > forget BJ and open a savings account.

  3. #29
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Don, what if the opposite happens?

    Don,

    What is the expectation if one gets up early in the session? What does winning in excess of the expectation signal for the rest of the session? I know this must seem very elementary but I don't know these things. Thanks for your help.

    Sam

    > "Early session loss as a predictor of
    > eventual session loss is 90+% accurate. Am I
    > giving in to voodoo? Lately, I have been
    > closely examining my chicken bones at the
    > buffet."

    > Suppose a basketball team trails by 20
    > points at halftime. Don't you think that's a
    > pretty good indicator that it will
    > eventually lose the game?!

    > Of course, if you get behind early, you're
    > more like to stay behind. The cards don't
    > owe you your loss back! They only owe you
    > the EV for the rest of the time you count on
    > playing. If your early loss is substantially
    > greater than that future EV, then, by jove,
    > you're going to lose for that session.

    > The rest is voodoo.

    > Don

  4. #30
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Don, what if the opposite happens?

    > What is the expectation if one gets up early
    > in the session? What does winning in excess
    > of the expectation signal for the rest of
    > the session? I know this must seem very
    > elementary but I don't know these things.
    > Thanks for your help.

    You need to get this entire notion completely out of your head for good. What happens in the past signals NOTHING WHATSOEVER as to what is going to happen in the future. If it did, we'd all be able to predict the future, no???

    If you flip a coin and it lands heads 10 times in a row, what does that tell you about the next 10 flips? If you answered anything other than "nothing at all," you seriously need to read a few books on probablility theory and independent events.

    Don

  5. #31
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: Don, what if the opposite happens?

    Don,

    I'll do that. And thanks again.

    Sam

    > You need to get this entire notion
    > completely out of your head for good. What
    > happens in the past signals NOTHING
    > WHATSOEVER as to what is going to happen in
    > the future. If it did, we'd all be able to
    > predict the future, no???

    > If you flip a coin and it lands heads 10
    > times in a row, what does that tell you
    > about the next 10 flips? If you answered
    > anything other than "nothing at
    > all," you seriously need to read a few
    > books on probablility theory and independent
    > events.

    > Don

  6. #32
    thanks4thefish
    Guest

    thanks4thefish: Re: check me on this: reddux

    'session results are meaningless. It is all one long session, interrupted by breaks. Every shuffle is a new beginning. The cards do not know how long you have been at the table, or away from the table.'-Parker.

    Sam, use this from Parker's post as your mantra. You really need to re-read the posts of Don, Dancer, Parker & myself. It is there in black & white, but as Parker has stated 'it's not the answer you want.'

    Your voodoo is common enough, moreso with intelligent people like yourself who feel there must be something their intellect can add to the maths, some contribution they can make to the wealth of knowledge of the game, some insight.

    Be very careful believing your observations.
    You are seeing purpose & patterns where there is only process.

    All I can suggest is play the game, play it by the book, keep records.

    You should really buy a sim program......& find a level of risk your happy with. I still like Uston's 5% ROR personally for a renewable bankroll, but you can play more conservatively if you wish.

  7. #33
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: check me on this: reddux

    I was looking for an answer but not a particular answer that I "wanted". My understanding of the game is hampered by a mind that is linguistic rather than mathematic. I tend to have a narrative sense of things unfolding in an orderly sequence. I look for that and it isn't there in the BJ I see played. My questions come about as a result of that mindset. I was not attacking the math or the experts. I ask questions that are more clearly answered in numbers and then in words. I can't usually get past the numbers. I'm certain I express the same impatience that Parker feels with me with folks who have trouble with words, with telling a story. Keep this in mind when I list the reading I've done to this point. I've read ProBj, Blackbelt in BJ, Revere, Vancura's KO, and a bunch of stuff early on from B&N's game section. What's the title of the Uston book? I'm going to order Don's book. Which of Norm's software would be right for someone of my limited math? Thanks again for your help.

    Sam

    > 'session results are meaningless. It is all
    > one long session, interrupted by breaks.
    > Every shuffle is a new beginning. The cards
    > do not know how long you have been at the
    > table, or away from the table.'-Parker.

    > Sam, use this from Parker's post as your
    > mantra. You really need to re-read the posts
    > of Don, Dancer, Parker & myself. It is
    > there in black & white, but as Parker
    > has stated 'it's not the answer you want.'

    > Your voodoo is common enough, moreso with
    > intelligent people like yourself who feel
    > there must be something their intellect can
    > add to the maths, some contribution they can
    > make to the wealth of knowledge of the game,
    > some insight.

    > Be very careful believing your observations.
    > You are seeing purpose & patterns where
    > there is only process.

    > All I can suggest is play the game, play it
    > by the book, keep records.

    > You should really buy a sim
    > program......& find a level of risk your
    > happy with. I still like Uston's 5% ROR
    > personally for a renewable bankroll, but you
    > can play more conservatively if you wish.

  8. #34
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: check me on this: reddux

    > I was looking for an answer but not a
    > particular answer that I "wanted".
    > My understanding of the game is hampered by
    > a mind that is linguistic rather than
    > mathematic.

    It's possible to have both, you know! :-)

    In any event, get the software, play with it for a while, and things should start to become clearer for you.

    Don

  9. #35
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: About STOP-LOSS strategies

    > I'll call variance "luck" because
    > variance sounds too orderly, too scientific
    > for what I see regularly. Which brings me to
    > the question of the relevancy of empiricism
    > or observation in AP play. Playing at the
    > same casino (the only one in a 100 mile
    > radius) day after day as I do may lead one
    > to see patterns where none exist. Familiar
    > dealers, pit folks, and decor may be the
    > first pattern. But what if a pattern of play
    > or circumstance were observed that impacted
    > success? For example, if one observed over a
    > period of several hundred sessions that he
    > was rarely successful when down after the
    > first three shoes of a session, would it not
    > be reasonable to recognize this and walk
    > away a small loser on the "early
    > down" days?

    Yes. See below.

    > I'm uncomfortable with the idea that one
    > should continue to play shoe after negative
    > shoe with the belief that a positive shoe is
    > coming, all the while oblivious to anything
    > but the math. I think I remember some folks
    > saying they limit their sessions to a set
    > period of time for reasons of stamina. These
    > same folks may also have said that one
    > shouldn't have a win goal or a loss limit.
    > You play the cards until they aren't good
    > anymore. It seems to me ending a winning
    > session or a losing session after an hour as
    > an endurance consideration is little
    > different than ending a session because a
    > win goal or a loss limit has been reached.
    > All three may be based on observations that
    > the player has made over a period of many
    > sessions. I recognize that we seek
    > "reasonable" explanations for what
    > we may not understand. We might create a
    > pattern as a convenience. For instance, am I
    > creating this "early down, always
    > down" pattern to explain my lack of
    > patience and inadequate bankroll? I have
    > kept good records for nearly six years of
    > 3-4 sessions per week. Early session loss as
    > a predictor of eventual session loss is 90+%
    > accurate. Am I giving in to voodoo? Lately,
    > I have been closely examining my chicken
    > bones at the buffet.

    I know this will generate a lot of controversy but there are some good points in your way of thinking. Let me give an example of when you should consider a "STOP-LOSS" strategy.
    Let's forget about your real bankroll and just focus on your (TRIP) session BR. Suppose that you take to the casino 100 units for a 4-hour session. Let's consider 100 rounds/hour for a total of 1600 rounds of play. Also, let's say that your unit is $10 for a TRIP-BR of $1000. The hypothetical game you're going to face has an EV of 0.0213 u/r and SD of 3.3008 u/r.
    With the above info you could get that your TRIP-RUIN is about 10.62%. This means that 1 out of 10 trips (approx.) you're going to lose your total TRIP-BR ($1000) which doesn't mean that you're going to win the rest .
    As you can see this sounds like a very conservative approach. You also know that you would end up your session if you've expended 4 hours playing. If you are winning you also leave after 4 hours (heat considerations).
    Now, say that you lose big during the first 2 hours ($900). What should you do now? Are you going to start another shoe with $100 worth? Do you think that you're going to recover from your losses with that money? Of course not!
    Now your TRIP-RUIN is over 80%! Why would you take such a risk? Better go back to your hotel (or your home) and come back when you replenish your TRIP-BR.
    So, if you don't have enough money for completing a full shoe then simply leave!
    I understand that it's not easy to calculate a STOP-LOSS limit but there it is. My example was a little exaggerated but the idea was to show you what the point is. Maybe you've lost half your session BR. Are you willing to accept more than a 30% Trip-RUIN? Again, if you have enough money for a complete new shoe then yes, otherwise leave.

    Sincerely,
    Cacarulo

  10. #36
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Re: check me on this: reddux

    Hi Parker,

    See my post about STOP-LOSS strategies.

    > In addition, as I have said repeatedly,
    > session results are meaningless. It is all
    > one long session, interrupted by breaks.
    > Every shuffle is a new beginning. The cards
    > do not know how long you have been at the
    > table, or away from the table.

    I agree but if your money left is not enough for a new shoe you should leave. It is not a good idea to run out of money in the middle of a juicy count.

    > It is completely different. You may reach
    > your win or loss goal five minutes after you
    > sit down. Suppose you find that rare dealer
    > who is dealing down to the last few cards.
    > You lose a couple of those resplit/double
    > hands with max bets out and are suddenly at
    > your stop-loss. Are you going to just get up
    > and walk away from this outstanding game?

    No, you should first finish that shoe and if you end up at your stop-loss then you should leave.

    > Did it ever occur to you that these patterns
    > become self-fulfulling? If you leave the
    > table when you are down, how are you going
    > to come back?

    We leave because we can't afford to play a new shoe and we come back when we replenish our trip-BR. Also, we leave because the risk of staying is too high.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  11. #37
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Re: check me on this: reddux

    > Hi Parker,

    > See my post about STOP-LOSS strategies.

    I saw it. I just don't operate that way. I don't think in terms of a "trip bankroll." I generally bring most of my BR with me. Worst case scenario is that I have to take a "bathroom break" in order to access my money belt. (It really causes a scene if you drop your pants at the table. :-))

    > I agree but if your money left is not enough
    > for a new shoe you should leave. It is not a
    > good idea to run out of money in the middle
    > of a juicy count.

    Never happen. In the extremely unlikely event that I reach a point where I have lost half my BR, then it is time to resize my bets. No way do I leave in the middle of a shoe.

    > No, you should first finish that shoe and if
    > you end up at your stop-loss then you should
    > leave.

    Sorry. Stop-losses, trip BR, all these are simply signs that you are overbetting your bankroll, IMHO.

    > We leave because we can't afford to play a
    > new shoe and we come back when we replenish
    > our trip-BR. Also, we leave because the risk
    > of staying is too high.

    Again, I simply cannot imagine being in that situation. I always have at least twice the "session BR" that I would expect to lose in the worst possible "shoe from hell" scenario. Also, I keep my sessions short (under an hour) simply for reasons of heat.

  12. #38
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: About STOP-LOSS strategies

    One of the problems of playing this way is that, basically, you should never allow yourself to reach the situation you describe, because you're "damned if you do and damned if you don't."

    If you truly accepted the 10%+ ROR you calculated before you left, then, in fact, you SHOULD play with that last $100 -- otherwise, you really didn't have 10% ROR to start out with, if you really intended to quit if you got behinbd by $900. So, the fact that you would continue with just the $100 is wrapped up in your initial strategy to play with a trip BR of only $1,000.

    That said, some people cut back on their trip stakes when they lose, say, half of the trip bank. This, of course, may extend your playing hours, but you will be winning and losing at only half the rate that you initially intended. I really don't recommend that players do this.

    If you can't replenish your funds, and you can live with finishing out your days of the trip without playing (should you tap out), I say play to the bitter end, and come what may! If you keep that $100, you'll never know if the cards were destined to turn and you were on the verge of a huge win streak. Happens all the time.

    Don

  13. #39
    thanks4thefish
    Guest

    thanks4thefish: check me on this: reddux

    'I was looking for an answer but not a
    particular answer that I "wanted".'

    It's not so much that you're looking for a specific answer that hasn't been presented, as that you are perhaps not fully considering those that have been presented.

    'My understanding of the game is hampered by
    a mind that is linguistic rather than
    mathematic. I tend to have a narrative sense
    of things unfolding in an orderly sequence.'

    The cards are randomly shuffled, so their appearance is randomly ordered. The only thing you can do is learn how to play each hand, & track the cards that do appear, (ie count) to give an indication of the composition yet to be dealt. Then vary your betting & playing strategy according to the new status of cards remaining.

    'I look for that and it isn't there in the BJ
    I see played.'

    As I said, your looking for purpose where there is only process. Many patterns are visible after the event, just as random ink blots are, but cannot be predicted. I doubt God is very much interested in what order the cards come out of the shoe.

    'My questions come about as a result of that mindset.'

    Correct, you have to alter your mindset.

    'I was not attacking the math or the experts. I ask questions that are more clearly answered in numbers and then in words. I can't usually get past the numbers.'

    My maths is only high school level, but I have been able to understand most of what I read. Concepts such as random distribution, SD, ROR, interpreting data from sims, interpreting graphs, bell curves, even plotting graphs on Excel. It's not that hard, & just as literature has a certain beauty, so too does maths. Learn one concept at at time before moving onto the next.

    Don't know if you've read Pirsig's 'Zen & the Art'
    but I liken the maths to classical beauty, (function, like the engine) & literature to romantic beauty.

    'I'm certain I express the same impatience that Parker feels with me with folks who have trouble with words, with telling a story.'

    I don't think it's so much impatience as frustration. The answers to your qu's have been fully addressed, but you have to change your mindset, change your frame of reference.

    'I've read ProBj, Blackbelt in BJ, Revere,
    Vancura's KO'

    That's all great nuts & bolts stuff, but it lacks the romance you are seeking.

    'What's the title of the Uston book? I'm going to order Don's book.'

    Don's book has a lot of math, but I intend also to purchase, as I think it will be easier to learn & comprehend than the math of Griffin or Epstein.

    Uston has 4 books which I'll be fully reviewing in the near future. $million dollar BJ should be your first one, in which he interlaces chapters, between the maths/ systems & inspirational BJ highlights of his career. I think you would enjoy the classic/ romantic mix.

    Uston will also hammer the point to you that the reason you make the decisions you do, are simply because that's what the IBM million hand simulations he paid big money to have done dictate, period.

    'Which of Norm's software would be right for someone of my limited math? Thanks
    again for your help.'

    I'll let Norm handle this qu. This post is pretty well down the page so if you don't get an answer, try a new post, 'Qu. for Norm'.

    Lastly remember, that in order to fill your cup with new tea, you must first discard the old.

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