Last night I saw some really high counts while backcounting. I jumped into the games and cleaned up. Three winning sessions in three different casinos. At one table I saw a count of +20 with about 4 decks in the discard tray (an 8 deck game with 75% penetration). Playing at this table I got lots of 20's, won most of my doubles, and a couple blackjacks. Everything went exactly like it is supposed to. This is the only way to play!
> Last night I saw some really high counts
> while backcounting. I jumped into the games
> and cleaned up. Three winning sessions in
> three different casinos. At one table I saw
> a count of +20 with about 4 decks in the
> discard tray (an 8 deck game with 75%
> penetration). Playing at this table I got
> lots of 20's, won most of my doubles, and a
> couple blackjacks. Everything went exactly
> like it is supposed to. This is the only way
> to play!
I hate to bust your bubble, but if you continue to play, you will also have days in which you do everything exactly as above - except that you lose nearly every hand, dropping a big chunk of your bankroll.
It's the nature of the game.
But, it's nice when the cards do fall your way. Enjoy the moment. Just be aware that it won't always be that way, even if you're doing everything right.
The good news is that, at the end of the year, when you tally up the results of hundreds of hours of play, you should be showing a tidy net profit.
> I hate to bust your bubble, but if you
> continue to play, you will also have days in
> which you do everything exactly as above -
> except that you lose nearly every hand,
> dropping a big chunk of your bankroll.
I know it won't always go as well as it did that night. Alittle too good to last. I guess like always, there will be times when our friends (the high cards) are trapped behind the cut card and never come into play. But, my play all days are over. Why play through the entire shoe while the count is rising only to lose hand after hand. I also expect to experience less drastic bankroll fluctuations playing only during the sweet, high counts.
Wouldn't your bankroll fluctuations be highest at the high counts? At that point your the majority of your bets are at their peek.
> I know it won't always go as well as it did
> that night. Alittle too good to last. I
> guess like always, there will be times when
> our friends (the high cards) are trapped
> behind the cut card and never come into
> play. But, my play all days are over. Why
> play through the entire shoe while the count
> is rising only to lose hand after hand. I
> also expect to experience less drastic
> bankroll fluctuations playing only during
> the sweet, high counts.
> Wouldn't your bankroll fluctuations be
> highest at the high counts? At that point
> your the majority of your bets are at their
> peek.
Hopefully not. Since I am only playing during the high counts I can use a smaller spread. I think, anyone please correct me if I am wrong on this point. When playing all, I needed a 1 to 12 spread to beat the 8 deck games, but, backcounting I expect to win more hands than I lose or at least not get slaughtered. Therefore I expect to see less fluctuation in my bankroll. I won't put my max bet out all the time during these situations, that would almost be like flat betting - big bets all the time.
> I know it won't always go as well as it did
> that night. Alittle too good to last. I
> guess like always, there will be times when
> our friends (the high cards) are trapped
> behind the cut card and never come into
> play. But, my play all days are over. Why
> play through the entire shoe while the count
> is rising only to lose hand after hand. I
> also expect to experience less drastic
> bankroll fluctuations playing only during
> the sweet, high counts.
There's nothing wrong with playing only in positive counts, but terrellj is exactly right. Your bankroll, and your fortitude, will be put to their greatest tests in high counts with large bets out. That's when your variance is highest, not lowest.
You had a good run. Congratulations. But remember, the piper will eventually expect to be paid. Your EV, even at high counts, is seldom much over 2%. You may get a 50% return on a shoe or two, but eventually you'll find yourself on the other half of the bell curve at -46%.
> Hopefully not. Since I am only playing
> during the high counts I can use a smaller
> spread.
That's true, but your variance is based, to a large extent, on the total amount of money you put on the table. You may be using a smaller spread, but your max bet will (if it's calculated correctly) be larger than it was with a 12:1 spread. You'll play fewer hands per hour, but your variance per 100 hands played will be larger.
> I think, anyone please correct me if
> I am wrong on this point. When playing all,
> I needed a 1 to 12 spread to beat the 8 deck
> games, but, backcounting I expect to win
> more hands than I lose or at least not get
> slaughtered.
Nope. Playing at positive counts makes very little difference in the number of hands you win vs. hands you lose. You'll still lose significantly more hands than you win. And yes, you will occasionally get "slaughtered".
> Hopefully not. Since I am only playing
> during the high counts I can use a smaller
> spread. I think, anyone please correct me if
> I am wrong on this point. When playing all,
> I needed a 1 to 12 spread to beat the 8 deck
> games, but, backcounting I expect to win
> more hands than I lose or at least not get
> slaughtered. Therefore I expect to see less
> fluctuation in my bankroll. I won't put my
> max bet out all the time during these
> situations, that would almost be like flat
> betting - big bets all the time.
Terrelj and Dancer are right. The better the game, the bigger the swings. Wonging is a better game than play-all (all else being equal), so your swings will be bigger. Some of my worst beatings have occurred in deeply dealt single deck games.
Also, as Dancer mentioned, you will lose more hands than you win, even playing only high counts. Your edge comes from blackjacks, splits and double down opportunities.
> Terrelj and Dancer are right. The better the
> game, the bigger the swings. Wonging is a
> better game than play-all (all else being
> equal), so your swings will be bigger. Some
> of my worst beatings have occurred in deeply
> dealt single deck games.
> Also, as Dancer mentioned, you will lose
> more hands than you win, even playing only
> high counts. Your edge comes from
> blackjacks, splits and double down
> opportunities.
You guys are really trying to bring me back down to earth aren't you. Your advice is greatly appreciated. But, can't I enjoy this winning streak alittle while longer, and enjoy the faith that in the long run, despite the short run fluctuations, this style of play will produce a profit?
> You guys are really trying to bring me back
> down to earth aren't you. Your advice is
> greatly appreciated. But, can't I enjoy this
> winning streak alittle while longer, and
> enjoy the faith that in the long run,
> despite the short run fluctuations, this
> style of play will produce a profit?
By all means. Enjoy the moment. Pat yourself on the back. Stand in front of a mirror and yell, "Who da man? You da man!" a few times. Count the money you won and arrange it in neat stacks. Throw it in the air and watch the bills flutter to the floor (do not do this in a public place).
Just be aware of the following:
Your win was not the result of your brilliant play.
Your win was not the result of the superiority of wonging over play-all.
If you continue to play, you will experience large fluctuations in both directions, although you will emerge a long-term winner.
Sooner or later, you will experience the "session from hell" in which find a great game, do everything right . . . and get your butt kicked.
So certainly, take a few moments to savor the win and bask in the glow. Just recognize the session for what it was: Positive variation.
Some might call it "good luck."
Surely by now NEWTOBJ understands what is being told to him, but ..
> Your win was not the result of your brilliant play.
It certainly was not the result of his bad play. (Well, it could have been, but..)
> Your win was not the result of the superiority of wonging over play-all.
Sure it was, in part.
> Sooner or later, you will experience the
> "session from hell" in which find
> a great game, do everything right . . . and
> get your butt kicked.
For that he can be certain.
But let's give the guy some credit.
Good play, good back-counting; good for him.
Then you can certainly play brilliant and win.
I feel that a skilled card counter(such as Iwho avoids negative shoes is a major tool in determining the difference between a winning and losing session. Had NTBJ's strategy been play- all,..he may have lost.
I say good job Newtobj. It's great when you have those days. I had a day like that and then the next day....ummm....I'd rather not discuss that one. I believe I did learn more on the the bad day, though.
Professionals, please answer this. Using CVCX, I did a sim of backcounting at +1 TC with a spread of 1 to 3 and the STD DEV was 9 . That's it, 9 !!!! The standard deviation for playing all was about 46. Doesn't this mean something.
Also, Newtobj, take my advice, don't put too much money out at a TC +1. Your advantage is only about .011 % at that point. Wait until about +2 to really get going. That is what I learned on that bad day. Also, I wouldn't flat bet when wonging. Some people advise that but you really increase your gains when you spread a little upon wonging just like if you were playing all.
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