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Thread: OCD: beginner bruises

  1. #1
    OCD
    Guest

    OCD: beginner bruises

    PErhaps there are other messages like this out there:

    Feel like I'm doing everything right, and losing my ass off. Practiced for SO many hours at home, the first week of casino play went well, an increase of about 20 units spread over maybe 15 hours of play, then I stepped up my unit and my spread a bit. Lose lose lose lose. Especially at the maddeningly hot TC's, a big bet( for me- approx 4 units, sometimes 3 units x2 spots) and I push or lose.

    Ok the details so the kind experts can analyze my play:

    Hi-lo
    either 2D H17 DOA (sometimes DAS) no surr DA2 usually sort of lousy pen: 50-60%. Found ok pen (75%) at one north-end of strip place, but lost anyway.

    or
    6D h17 doa das 60-70% pen.
    usually bet spread from 5-40$ (drop from unit to 5$ when it's cold) or (10$ table) 10-40$.

    haven't tried wonging in or cooperating with my partner, playing spotter and player. (My girlfriend and I play together)

    here's the big frustration: I lose by far the worst when it gets hot and I up my bet.

    Is this just bad luck, or am I screwing something up? ( I lost my 25 unit gain and went down another 55 units in just two days, five play sessions.)

    Thank you.

  2. #2
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Welcome to the real world

    > PErhaps there are other messages like this
    > out there:

    Probably thousands, or more.

    > Feel like I'm doing everything right, and
    > losing my ass off. Practiced for SO many
    > hours at home, the first week of casino play
    > went well, an increase of about 20 units
    > spread over maybe 15 hours of play, then I
    > stepped up my unit and my spread a bit. Lose
    > lose lose lose. Especially at the
    > maddeningly hot TC's, a big bet( for me-
    > approx 4 units, sometimes 3 units x2 spots)
    > and I push or lose.

    > Ok the details so the kind experts can
    > analyze my play:

    > Hi-lo
    > either 2D H17 DOA (sometimes DAS) no surr
    > DA2 usually sort of lousy pen: 50-60%. Found
    > ok pen (75%) at one north-end of strip
    > place, but lost anyway.

    This is a lousy game, due to the poor pen coupled with H17 and no surrender. You need at least a 1-8 spread to beat it.

    > or
    > 6D h17 doa das 60-70% pen.
    > usually bet spread from 5-40$ (drop from
    > unit to 5$ when it's cold) or (10$ table)
    > 10-40$.

    70%? As in 1.8 or more decks cut off? And H17 and no surrender? This game is unplayable, except possibly with pure wonging.

    > haven't tried wonging in or cooperating with
    > my partner, playing spotter and player. (My
    > girlfriend and I play together)

    > here's the big frustration: I lose by far
    > the worst when it gets hot and I up my bet.

    This is normal. Think about it. This is when you have the most money on the table. If the cards do not fall your way, this is when you will lose the most. I have had my worst sessions at the best games.

    > Is this just bad luck, or am I screwing
    > something up? ( I lost my 25 unit gain and
    > went down another 55 units in just two days,
    > five play sessions.)

    The only thing you are screwing up is you are playing bad games and not spreading enough (I'm assuming that you are counting properly).

    However, if you had been spreading more agressively, it is quite likely that you would have lost even more.

    This is the nature of the game. Our edge is small and variance is high. Your odds of being significantly up or down after this small amount of play are almost equal.

    The main thing you can do to change things is to improve your game selection. Look for at least 67% pen (1/3 of the pack cut off) in double deck games, more if DAS in not offered. In shoe games, use 75% (1.5 decks cut off as an absolute minimum,and consider leaving the table when the count goes negative.

    Get used to the idea of using bigger spreads, especially in the shoe games. You're probably underbankrolled.

    Remember, if this was easy, everyone would be doing it.

  3. #3
    Jack Fate
    Guest

    Jack Fate: Re: beginner bruises

    Know exactly how you feel.Gone through the same thing many,many times. Everyone has. If you follow Parker's advice you'll be o.k. Just stick with it,trust the math and play smart. Oh, by the way, this isn't the only time you will go through this. Hang in there.Good luck.

  4. #4
    Battery
    Guest

    Battery: Re: beginner bruises

    You did well compared to my trip to Reno last week.

    > PErhaps there are other messages like this
    > out there:

    > Feel like I'm doing everything right, and
    > losing my ass off. Practiced for SO many
    > hours at home, the first week of casino play
    > went well, an increase of about 20 units
    > spread over maybe 15 hours of play, then I
    > stepped up my unit and my spread a bit. Lose
    > lose lose lose. Especially at the
    > maddeningly hot TC's, a big bet( for me-
    > approx 4 units, sometimes 3 units x2 spots)
    > and I push or lose.

    > Ok the details so the kind experts can
    > analyze my play:

    > Hi-lo
    > either 2D H17 DOA (sometimes DAS) no surr
    > DA2 usually sort of lousy pen: 50-60%. Found
    > ok pen (75%) at one north-end of strip
    > place, but lost anyway.

    > or
    > 6D h17 doa das 60-70% pen.
    > usually bet spread from 5-40$ (drop from
    > unit to 5$ when it's cold) or (10$ table)
    > 10-40$.

    > haven't tried wonging in or cooperating with
    > my partner, playing spotter and player. (My
    > girlfriend and I play together)

    > here's the big frustration: I lose by far
    > the worst when it gets hot and I up my bet.

    > Is this just bad luck, or am I screwing
    > something up? ( I lost my 25 unit gain and
    > went down another 55 units in just two days,
    > five play sessions.)

    > Thank you.

  5. #5
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Indeed

    > Oh, by the way, this isn't the only
    > time you will go through this.

    It would be nice if I could say that things get better as one gains more experience.

    Nice, but usually not true.

    In fact, as one becomes more discriminating in game selection, playing only the best games, using larger bet spreads, and playing for higher stakes, the swings get bigger, not smaller.

    It wouls also be nice if I could say that one gets used to these swings. Most people don't.

    Can you imagine how it feels when you realize that the amount you just dropped in a single session at the tables could have bought, say, a brand new car?

    This is why there aren't many full time high stakes pros.

    And why those few pros have my utmost respect.

  6. #6
    ShoelessD
    Guest

    ShoelessD: Re: Indeed

    > This is why there aren't many full time high
    > stakes pros.

    Exactly. There are many professional poker players, very few professional blackjack players. The bankroll required to endure the swings Parker cites is much more than than we realize.

    Advantage play is no magic bullett, but it is a small advantage never the less. Indeed, much respect is due those few who make their living on a turn of a card.


  7. #7
    OCD
    Guest

    OCD: Re: underbankrolled

    much gratitude.

    re: underbankrolled post- I was roughly trying to abiide by Kelly, 3000$ bankroll indicating max bet at any time being 60$.

    One question- does that preclude doubling down/splitting when you've just bet your max?

  8. #8
    Jack Fate
    Guest

    Jack Fate: Re: Indeed

    Even as a rec player blackjack will test your fortitude and a few other things. Hats off to the pros. I know I couldn't do it.

  9. #9
    Hal Jordan
    Guest

    Hal Jordan: Never were more true words written

    Nice post Parker.

    I think the place where most counters go wrong is in game selection. Players get too frustrated with the work involved in finding good games, and thus decide that playing a bad game is better than playing none at all.

    The discipline to only play quality games is the most important ingredient to success in this endeavour.

    HJ

  10. #10
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Re: Never were more true words written

    > Nice post Parker.

    > I think the place where most counters go
    > wrong is in game selection. Players get too
    > frustrated with the work involved in finding
    > good games, and thus decide that playing a
    > bad game is better than playing none at all.

    > The discipline to only play quality games is
    > the most important ingredient to success in
    > this endeavour.

    I am amazed at the number of posts and e-mails I see along the lines of "What's the best way to beat the 6D, H17, no sur, 2 decks cut off game at XYZ casino? I know it's a lousy game, but it's the only casino close to me."

    Reminds me of the old joke about a bar with a roulette wheel in the back room. A guy was lamenting to his friend that he had lost all his money on this game. "Why do you play that game?" the friend asked. "You know that wheel is rigged!"

    "Yeah, I know," was the reply. "But it's the only game in town."

    I see a similar mentality here. There is no reason for it, since there are now casinos all over the USA and most of the rest of the world. Nearly everyone is within a few hours drive or a plane flight to a gambling center somewhere.

    Rather than slowly losing at some unbeatable local game, far better to save up for an occasional weekend getaway to Las Vegas, Tunica, Biloxi, etc.


  11. #11
    Hal Jordan
    Guest

    Hal Jordan: Amen to that!

    Ploppies will always play the poor games, but I really hate to hear that the informed still pursue poor games.

    I always feel good knowing that I am playing a quality game. If I lose money playing the way I should, then there can be no lamenting. I would feel horrible losing money at a losing game, so I never play that way.

    HJ

    P.S. I am looking forward to adding your book to my library.

  12. #12
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: underbankrolled

    > One question- does that preclude doubling
    > down/splitting when you've just bet your
    > max?

    No.

    Doubling and splitting your way into a cummulative "max bet" at +1 is no real bargain. You do it but would you CHOOSE to make a max bet at +1? Sure, it may be spread over more than one hand now, but still.

    At +4, I'm beginning to pray for doubles and splits. And if the dealer turns a five, I can hardly stand it.

    Course then, he turns a ten and a six .....

  13. #13
    Dancer
    Guest

    Dancer: Couldn't have said it better...

    > Can you imagine how it feels when you
    > realize that the amount you just dropped in
    > a single session at the tables could have
    > bought, say, a brand new car?

    > This is why there aren't many full time high
    > stakes pros.

    > And why those few pros have my utmost
    > respect.

    Wonderful post, Parker. Throw in my highest praise for anyone who chooses to make a career at this great game. It doesn't take a full time pro to lose a (small) car in a single session, though. I've had that dubious honor on a few occasions.

    Certainly the standard deviation door swings both ways, but why are the losses always so much easier to remember? I'll never forget the way I felt heading to the LV airport the first time I lost $1,000 in a single day -- over 15 years ago. It's painful to this day.

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